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Pattern Nippy November

BHS1975 said:
Oh yeah bring on the warmth.

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591 dm ridge hanging out in the Atlantic, wth... nice pattern for nasty severe
 
The pacific jet just doesn’t look nearly as intimidating as it did last year. I remember we were getting 170+ kt winds deep into the eastern pacific last year. I mean even the 380 hour maps were showing it. I don’t see that so far this year. Therefore my optimism meter is at a 2/10 right now.
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If over 384 hours, a 12Z GFS vacillating range of 77º to 44º is a torch in N FL going into the 1st week of December, such a torch is welcomed ...

That's not to imply it might not get much warmer going into December; 384 is further down the road than worth considering ...

... nonetheless ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is an absolutely horrendous pacific pattern, it's only a matter of time...

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Not a surprise. We knew it was coming just in time for December. All we can do is hope we don't get stuck with that crap repeating all winter through our peak climo.
 
Rain Cold said:
Euro is not messing around with the Greenland blocking this year. This aint your mother's modern winter pattern, folks!

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All the pretty purpled and whites on the other side of the planet and a SE ridge, man I love winter!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
while it’s a very long way out, GEFS/GFS do agree on warming, and weakening of the PV (SSWE) they look very similar View attachment 26134View attachment 26135
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If this SSWE is successful & we get cold from it, I'd expect the pattern to respond timing wise in January, sort of analogous 1965-66 which absolutely dropped the hammer in January 1966 after a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred in December 1965, peaking in mid-December, that seems about right for this year if one were to transpire. Essentially, I'm saying if this pans out, I don't think we'd have to wait until February to get rocking & rolling.

January 1966 btw was crazy in our neck of the woods, culminating in a blizzard in late January. Yanceyville picked up 34" of snow in 2 weeks.

January 15-16 1966 NC Snowmap.png
January 22-23 1966 NC Snowmap.png
January 25-27 1966 NC Snowmap.png


January 29-31 1966 NC Snowmap.png
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
We don't want to waste our 10 days of winter in the first part of December anyway. Let's get it mid Jan!!
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I think we already wasted our week of winter, about a week ago! Remember, Roxboro jackpot, low of 24, it was our coldest of winter and only November!
 
Webberweather53 said:
If this SSWE is successful & we get cold from it, I'd expect the pattern to respond timing wise in January, sort of analogous 1965-66 which absolutely dropped the hammer in January 1966 after a sudden stratospheric warming event occurred in December 1965, peaking in mid-December, that seems about right for this year if one were to transpire. Essentially, I'm saying if this pans out, I don't think we'd have to wait until February to get rocking & rolling.

January 1966 btw was crazy in our neck of the woods, culminating in a blizzard in late January. Yanceyville picked up 34" of snow in 2 weeks.

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Seriously, since SSW was starting to be tossed around and our winter savior, the past 5+ years or so ago, have we benefitted at all from one of these? Seems like they either don’t affect us or the benefit Europe, with record cold and snow?
 
Never get excited about December. Its always a bonus if you get something in December except last year. JB said in October he felt December would be warm with cold coming Jan-Mar. I personally just want to see cold coming back late December early Jan. Never fails if we get cold this early it never lasts. This is the SE not NE so we should expect it
 
KyloG said:
EPS is fairly wet...if you like 50-60's and rain then you are in business.
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I'll take a damp and cloudy pattern in an unfavorable period for winter weather.

I'd really like for it to be wall to wall icebox cold with snowstorm after snowstorm, but it's possible that that might not be realistic, maybe. It's definitely going to get warm for part(s) of the winter. It's just an absolute certainty that it's going to happen. Quite frankly, I'd rather have a bad pattern roll in to start the December and have it evolve into something better mid-way or 3/4 way through the month and set us up for a good pattern to end the month and take us into the heart of winter, as opposed to our common scenario of late...getting a favorable week or 10 days at the beginning of December, just as our climo window is beginning to open and then barf it up with a mega bad pattern than sets in for the next 4-6 weeks.

Of course, all of that is predicated upon the fact that a bad pattern is transitory, of sorts, and doesn't lock in for a month or two. I mean, if we just believe in our hearts that a bad pattern has to lock in for most of the winter, then there really isn't much use caring about winter weather...unless of course, you really like tracking warmth and love frolicking in the warm winter sun.

Certainly not directed at you, but it seems like there's a lot of sadness and frustration developing here in mid-November. Seems more akin to PTSD rather than rational thinking.
 
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Rain Cold said:
I'll take a damp and cloudy pattern in an unfavorable period for winter weather.

I'd really like for it to be wall to wall icebox cold with snowstorm after snowstorm, but it's possible that that might not be realistic, maybe. It's definitely going to get warm for part(s) of the winter. It's just an absolute certainty that it's going to happen. Quite frankly, I'd rather have a bad pattern roll in to start the December and have it evolve into something better mid-way or 3/4 way through the month and set us up for a good pattern to end the month and take us into the heart of winter.

Of course, all of that is predicated upon the fact that a bad pattern is transitory, of sorts, and doesn't lock in for a month or two. I mean, if we just believe in our hearts that a bad pattern has to lock in for most of the winter, then there really isn't much use caring about winter weather...unless of course, you really like tracking warmth and love frolicking in the warm winter sun.

Certainly not directed at you, but it seems like there's a lot of sadness and frustration developing here in mid-November. Seems more akin to PTSD rather than rational thinking.
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If we end up going wall to wall warmth then we really do suck. Its not that hard to get a 2-3 week window of a favorable pattern with an event or two. Give us a 2018 repeat, we got cold end of Dec through mid-January, 2 events, 3 weeks of cold, great winter. And yet it still finished AN. I am resigned to the fact that it's going to be very difficult to be BN over a 3 month period from Dec-Feb. It's just the exception now..maybe twice a decade type thing.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Seriously, since SSW was starting to be tossed around and our winter savior, the past 5+ years or so ago, have we benefitted at all from one of these? Seems like they either don’t affect us or the benefit Europe, with record cold and snow?
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Considering the PV is camped out on that side of the globe anyway what do we have to lose? Also there is a pretty proven correlation to -NAO after SSW and considering that's one thing that has been ok so far this year in keeping us from the blowtorch. This map is surface temperature depiction for first 30 days following a SSW. This is pretty early for this to occur as well so all told may not equate to much. But it's not like it's snowing anytime soon anyways.

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Rain Cold said:
I'll take a damp and cloudy pattern in an unfavorable period for winter weather.

I'd really like for it to be wall to wall icebox cold with snowstorm after snowstorm, but it's possible that that might not be realistic, maybe. It's definitely going to get warm for part(s) of the winter. It's just an absolute certainty that it's going to happen. Quite frankly, I'd rather have a bad pattern roll in to start the December and have it evolve into something better mid-way or 3/4 way through the month and set us up for a good pattern to end the month and take us into the heart of winter, as opposed to our common scenario of late...getting a favorable week or 10 days at the beginning of December, just as our climo window is beginning to open and then barf it up with a mega bad pattern than sets in for the next 4-6 weeks.

Of course, all of that is predicated upon the fact that a bad pattern is transitory, of sorts, and doesn't lock in for a month or two. I mean, if we just believe in our hearts that a bad pattern has to lock in for most of the winter, then there really isn't much use caring about winter weather...unless of course, you really like tracking warmth and love frolicking in the warm winter sun.

Certainly not directed at you, but it seems like there's a lot of sadness and frustration developing here in mid-November. Seems more akin to PTSD rather than rational thinking.
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I think the main reason why we locked last winter was because we kept swirling in a bad MJO pattern. Maybe we can do the same in the correct pattern this winter or stay short in the unfavorable parts. At least the AN coming up isn't a torch and just a little warm. I'm working outside so bitter cold isn't the best right now anyway, but I don't want 70s or upper 60s to come back for long.
 
Batman said:
I don't post often. Mostly lurk quietly checking in to get both SR and LR pattern information from some of the knowledgeable posters on this board. I find myself shaking my head on a regular basis though at the doom and gloom that can come with every unfavorable model or ensemble run. It appears that happened again this weekend with a few model runs. This led to calls for:

* December "torch" which now seems to be a term used by some for a model that shows even a even a few days AN.
* "Maybe January/February things will be more favorable"
* "This is looking just like last year."

I truly do not understand how adults (if we are all actually adults here) can have such emotional swings in opinion and emotion based on something that updates itself every 6 - 12 hours and has proved to be consistently inaccurate. Anyway, see below from Kirk Mellish. While I sometimes chuckle at his tactics and methods for verifying his accuracy in forecasting for the entire Atlanta area, I do believe him to be a very skilled met. His posts are often very informative based on no hype, but lots of substance. His blog this morning reinforces what many were thinking before weekend models let many here to add more Bermuda shorts and flip flops to their Christmas list.

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/weather-notebook-looking-ahead/IYNT9HqQf6ZkWApwa6rZpL/
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It’s even harder to understand when many of us are experiencing a top 5-10 coldest November on record. I for one punt December every season because it rarely delivers accumulating snow in the southeast anyways. Only one year since 2006 have I seen an accumulating snow of more then one inch in December. After a number of years of disappointment I realized not to start hoping for snow until January arrives. I have been to busy enjoying the well below normal temps and almost half inch of snow I got last week then to be concerned about what models are showing for next month. After all the reason we like snow so much is because we get so little of it compared to the rest of the country. I could care less weather the models are showing cold or hot if it’s past 2 weeks out.
 
olhausen said:
It’s even harder to understand when many of us are experiencing a top 5-10 coldest November on record. I for one punt December every season because it rarely delivers accumulating snow in the southeast anyways. Only one year since 2006 have I seen an accumulating snow of more then one inch in December. After a number of years of disappointment I realized not to start hoping for snow until January arrives. I have been to busy enjoying the well below normal temps and almost half inch of snow I got last week then to be concerned about what models are showing for next month. After all the reason we like snow so much is because we get so little of it compared to the rest of the country. I could care less weather the models are showing cold or hot if it’s past 2 weeks out.
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Anything past 10 days is a stretch. And like you said, this month has been below normal for the majority. October was above normal for the majority. So, maybe the pendulum is just going to swing back and forth. We get warmer in December, and colder again in January. And with the way our weather here can go from 70s one week to 30s the next in winter, it's just better to buckle up and enjoy the ride.
 
The theme of winter in the south is wash rinse and repeat of warmth.... Thats whats definitely starting to look like with another frustrating winter we just can't catch a break anymore
 
Jessy89 said:
November 18th people trying to cancel winter. Unbelievable


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I think we are canceling fall, Winter starts 12/21 right? That’s SHOULD be the time we start seeing the cold coming back on the models, if not then yes cancel winter until February, then repeat this process until April.


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NoSnowATL said:
I think we are canceling fall, Winter starts 12/21 right? That’s SHOULD be the time we start seeing the cold coming back on the models, if not then yes cancel winter until February, then repeat this process until April.


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The thing is the models flip and flop all the time. We can have 3 cold days and get a winter storm. The torch the rest of a month. Sure a good pattern is preferred for a good winter storm. But it’s not always necessary.


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Jessy89 said:
The thing is the models flip and flop all the time. We can have 3 cold days and get a winter storm. The torch the rest of a month. Sure a good pattern is preferred for a good winter storm. But it’s not always necessary.


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100%, it’s all about timing.


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