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Pattern Nippy November

Altho I think it’s nearly over, I guess you can say the ICON is improving, finally more interaction 696DDE9F-3840-4FA1-A435-389F0BF4831F.gif
 
GFS changed pretty big at the surface so far back to suppression, but it’s no wonder, that Shortwave is slowing down again 24C3D1D1-60BB-4C4D-91A9-99928FD95BD7.gif
 
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I'm serious. I can't tell you how many times as a child a polar front would settle through the region and a wave would develop and move along it, bringing a winter storm. Nowadays, the front moves through, the wave stalls out in the SW or trends slower and slower and the cold air moderates before the wave finally decides to come out and cut west of the area. Not sure why that is, but it's the new normal for sure. It's why I never get excited when I hear discussions of overrunning events. You can count on just about all of them that show up 5-10 days out to trend that way.
 
Gefs actually trended the wrong way just a little bit, at least time is running out for a really big shift in the wrong direction when it comes to the larger scale stuff, but when it comes to mesoscale stuff we’ll prolly fail in a way there, lol1615C5B6-0BB1-4961-9B7A-5B06AB332568.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
looking at the gefs, starting to get little consistency, someone in the SE will probably see some token flakes, which is never a bad thing for November, when it comes to NC/north, I’ve seen many setups with a band of rain move thru, and the last portion of the rain band mixes with some snow at around 35-40 degrees, i can’t remember when that happened but it was somewhat recent View attachment 25562View attachment 25563
Click to expand...
Nov 2012 , I thing had this exact thing happen even here! Had a small dusting on back of a frontal band
 
Tarheel1 said:
Nov 2012 , I thing had this exact thing happen even here! Had a small dusting on back of a frontal band
Click to expand...

I deleted that post lol, because I don’t wanna get any hopes up at all ? this system could still completely fail but at least it’s under hour 150
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I deleted that post lol, because I don’t wanna get any hopes up at all this system could still completely fail but at least it’s under hour 150
Click to expand...

It’s all about the northern stream. Needs to go neutral tilt early and dig south. The GFS has been trending away from a N.C. storm with each run, keeping the N/S confluence north where any energy over the central part of the state, if there, won’t interact
ba2b9b7136daa56ae57a870c9a9b1337.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I can’t see my posts I think somethings wrong with tapatalk gif uploading

But I tried to post these thoughts:







Sorry for linking to my winter, but I have to head to work and I can’t retype and upload all the images here again.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
I can’t see my posts I think somethings wrong with tapatalk gif uploading

But I tried to post these thoughts:







Sorry for linking to my winter, but I have to head to work and I can’t retype and upload all the images here again.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

You have a winter account? ;)
 
Just an interesting observation for mby from the 0z EPS, while it had fewer members with sn from yesterday's runs (19 compared to 21-22) it also had more members with 2" plus (4 compared to 0 yesterday). Hmmmm go big or go home

edit: to add to this, yesterday's 12z eps had only 3 with 1" amounts all other's less than an 1", the 0z actually had 9 with 1" or more
 
metwannabe said:
Just an interesting observation for mby from the 0z EPS, while it had fewer members with sn from yesterday's runs (19 compared to 21-22) it also had more members with 2" plus (4 compared to 0 yesterday). Hmmmm go big or go home

edit: to add to this, yesterday's 12z eps had only 3 with 1" amounts all other's less than an 1", the 0z actually had 9 with 1" or more
Click to expand...
How many hours of daylight do you have left right now up there?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Just an interesting observation for mby from the 0z EPS, while it had fewer members with sn from yesterday's runs (19 compared to 21-22) it also had more members with 2" plus (4 compared to 0 yesterday). Hmmmm go big or go home

edit: to add to this, yesterday's 12z eps had only 3 with 1" amounts all other's less than an 1", the 0z actually had 9 with 1" or more
Click to expand...

Been noticing the GEFS adding more ice/sleet to for our areas, sleet definitely makes sense in this type of setup
 
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