• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we're usually spared the worse of the "torch" or mild wx when it does happen in a NINO Dec. I'd still definitely take near normal temps in late Nov/early Dec.

View attachment 26167
Click to expand...

A near 1981-2010 normal averaged out over DJF would be fantastic compared to the last few winters. Also, lets face it: our true normals are now a fair bit warmer than 1981-2010 averages, regardless, and they'll be updated soon. So, a normal winter by 1981-2010 standards would in essence now be a pretty cold winter.
 
GaWx said:
A near 1981-2010 normal averaged out over DJF would be fantastic compared to the last few winters. Also, lets face it: our true normals are now a fair bit warmer than 1981-2010 averages, regardless, and they'll be updated soon. So, a normal winter by 1981-2010 standards would in essence now be a pretty cold winter.
Click to expand...
#2,090
 
Agreed with several posts above regarding a winter cancel. Relax folks. The southeast is all about threading that proverbial needle. We never have sustained cold. Our most memorable winter weather events are often preceded by warmth.

I like the look of a wetter winter anyday with the right timing of a strong high and storm track over a dry and colder modeled winter.
 
Changing the base period does make a slight difference. Well AN is still well AN though. Maybe a neutral winter 20 years ago is slightly BN now.
618AF150-DDBF-4E56-BE24-AF005E468D9B.png1FBA7972-25B5-4B6B-A421-1F86DCCA73A9.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's nice and all but operational models hold literally no value at this range because we're well outside the e-folding scale of synoptic-scale waves which is on the order of a few days to a week or so.
Click to expand...
We need more lithium crystals ... warp speed Webb ... ;)
 
Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January & we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened.

In short, if I was a betting man, I'd be selling on this winter until at least late Dec (or probably the whole month) and buying by mid January & of course February (for obvious reasons). Even with as much pessimism as I've shown on here lately towards December potentially being a dud, I've definitely been under the impression that we may not have to wait til February to truly reap the benefits of being in a NINO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January & we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened.

In short, if I was a betting man, I'd be selling on this winter until at least late Dec (or probably the whole month) and buying by mid January & of course February (for obvious reasons). Even with as much pessimism as I've shown on here lately towards December potentially being a dud, I've definitely been under the impression that we may not have to wait til February to truly reap the benefits of being in a NINO.
Click to expand...
:cool:
Bingo!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Timing wise if this SSWE being forecast in the longer term is successful, we'd be generally falling right in line w/ 1965-66's evolution timing-wise anyways. Looks like the pattern in that particular winter flipped sometime in early January & then the bottom fell out in mid-late January in eastern North America. Anticipating a pattern change somewhere in this timeframe seems to fit w/ tropical subseasonal forcing evolution, which I anticipate will return to the "favorable" phases (central Pacific & western hemisphere) again around early January & we'll see a reinforcement of the tropospheric precursor pattern in the meantime that should deliver the final blow to the polar vortex if it already hasn't happened.

In short, if I was a betting man, I'd be selling on this winter until at least late Dec (or probably the whole month) and buying by mid January & of course February (for obvious reasons). Even with as much pessimism as I've shown on here lately towards December potentially being a dud, I've definitely been under the impression that we may not have to wait til February to truly reap the benefits of being in a NINO.
Click to expand...
Speaking of the SSWE, gefs looks even better with more significant warming, ofc it’s gonna change time to time but there’s definitely a signal 63003AB5-B617-47F9-BD26-F764B04F80DE.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Speaking of the SSWE, gefs looks even better with more significant warming, ofc it’s gonna change time to time but there’s definitely a signal View attachment 26174
Click to expand...
Yep. Imo, we’re about 3-4 weeks or so ahead of schedule vs the canonical nino progression, we usually don’t see a sswe get going until about late dec in most ninos. This also seems to imply a flip to a colder pattern in Jan instead of Feb as we often see. We will definitely revisit this in a few weeks.
I’d personally much rather have a jammin January than Fab Feb for once.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep. Imo, we’re about 3-4 weeks or so ahead of schedule vs the canonical nino progression, we usually don’t see a sswe get going until about late dec in most ninos. This also seems to imply a flip to a colder pattern in Jan instead of Feb as we often see. We will definitely revisit this in a few weeks
Click to expand...
I feel like we, in comparison to last year, if every variable were exactly the same, are having these changes flip, a few weeks earlier that last year. We saw the October cool down earlier and the November warmup looks to be much earlier that last year. I’m still pessimistic that we see a colder winter, taking comparison to last winter, not having the LR differences pointed out to me. With that being said, Webb, what are some of the major differences we have going for us this year, that we didn’t have last year, that’s leading to you “chipper” optimism?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep. Imo, we’re about 3-4 weeks or so ahead of schedule vs the canonical nino progression, we usually don’t see a sswe get going until about late dec in most ninos. This also seems to imply a flip to a colder pattern in Jan instead of Feb as we often see. We will definitely revisit this in a few weeks.
I’d personally much rather have a jammin January than Fab Feb for once.
Click to expand...
:cool:;)
Bingo 2 ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah we're usually spared the worse of the "torch" or mild wx when it does happen in a NINO Dec. I'd still definitely take near normal temps in late Nov/early Dec.

View attachment 26167
Click to expand...
Remember, red in the Yukon, is still about 35 degrees colder than we ever get down here, so make lemonade!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I feel like we, in comparison to last year, if every variable were exactly the same, are having these changes flip, a few weeks earlier that last year. We saw the October cool down earlier and the November warmup looks to be much earlier that last year. I’m still pessimistic that we see a colder winter, taking comparison to last winter, not having the LR differences pointed out to me. With that being said, Webb, what are some of the major differences we have going for us this year, that we didn’t have last year, that’s leading to you “chipper” optimism?
Click to expand...

As mentioned earlier along w/ the stratospheric warming event which appears to be potentially on the horizon unusually early in the winter, the timing of this year's subseasonal tropical forcing appears to be a few weeks ahead of last year and is hinting at a return to a more favorable pattern perhaps as soon as the first half of January instead of Feb (as is often the case).

Despite the +IOD which is often a harbinger of an early winter torch, this year actually looks like a legitimate modoki NINO w/ dateline forcing unlike last winter. Dateline forcing (in blue/purple shading over the central equatorial Pacific) favors more frequent -NAOs.

uyhRqpflfz.png

As result in part from said dateline forcing in addition to a minor, secondary-tertiary assist from solar activity, we've seen a stronger -NAO in the mid-late fall this year and it's being reflected in the SST configuration over the North Atlantic. This positive tripole you see in the composite below will thermally damp the waves in the North Atlantic storm track such that they modestly reinforce the -NAO which is of course another favorable sign.
Io4ewl76p2.png

All told, I definitely like this winter more than last year as a whole for reasons stated above.

However, I remain extremely pessimistic regarding December because the large-scale signaling all seems to be pointing towards a mild or very mild pattern this time around. Thereafter, based on the information noted in earlier comments, I think we have a good shot to turn our fortunes around just in time for peak snowfall climo in early-mid January.

We shall see what happens.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As mentioned earlier along w/ the stratospheric warming event which appears to be potentially on the horizon unusually early in the winter, the timing of this year's subseasonal tropical forcing appears to be a few weeks ahead of last year and is hinting at a return to a more favorable pattern perhaps as soon as the first half of January instead of Feb (as is often the case).

Despite the +IOD which is often a harbinger of an early winter torch, this year actually looks like a legitimate modoki NINO w/ dateline forcing unlike last winter. Dateline forcing (in blue/purple shading over the central equatorial Pacific) favors more frequent -NAOs.

View attachment 26175

As result in part from said dateline forcing in addition to a minor, secondary-tertiary assist from solar activity, we've seen a stronger -NAO in the mid-late fall this year and it's being reflected in the SST configuration over the North Atlantic. This positive tripole you see in the composite below will thermally damp the waves in the North Atlantic storm track such that they modestly reinforce the -NAO which is of course another favorable sign.
View attachment 26176

All told, I definitely like this winter more than last year as a whole for reasons stated above.

However, I remain extremely pessimistic regarding December because the large-scale signaling all seems to be pointing towards a mild or very mild pattern this time around. Thereafter, based on the information noted in earlier comments, I think we have a good shot to turn our fortunes around just in time for peak snowfall climo in early-mid January.

We shall see what happens.
Click to expand...
I wish I knew a quarter of what you know
 
Webberweather53 said:
As mentioned earlier along w/ the stratospheric warming event which appears to be potentially on the horizon unusually early in the winter, the timing of this year's subseasonal tropical forcing appears to be a few weeks ahead of last year and is hinting at a return to a more favorable pattern perhaps as soon as the first half of January instead of Feb (as is often the case).

Despite the +IOD which is often a harbinger of an early winter torch, this year actually looks like a legitimate modoki NINO w/ dateline forcing unlike last winter. Dateline forcing (in blue/purple shading over the central equatorial Pacific) favors more frequent -NAOs.

View attachment 26175

As result in part from said dateline forcing in addition to a minor, secondary-tertiary assist from solar activity, we've seen a stronger -NAO in the mid-late fall this year and it's being reflected in the SST configuration over the North Atlantic. This positive tripole you see in the composite below will thermally damp the waves in the North Atlantic storm track such that they modestly reinforce the -NAO which is of course another favorable sign.
View attachment 26176

All told, I definitely like this winter more than last year as a whole for reasons stated above.

However, I remain extremely pessimistic regarding December because the large-scale signaling all seems to be pointing towards a mild or very mild pattern this time around. Thereafter, based on the information noted in earlier comments, I think we have a good shot to turn our fortunes around just in time for peak snowfall climo in early-mid January.

We shall see what happens.
Click to expand...
If I remember correctly, last year we had -AAM, which forced more of a Nina type event even though SST's didn't support it. It's nice to see tropical forcing on our side this year. Hopefully, the supportive modoki should help suppress our inevitable December torch.
 
Rain Cold said:
None of this screams torch to me. I mean, I can certainly see our string of above normal Decembers makes us nervous. But looking at our favorite indexes, I don't see anything that is pointing to an all out torch for the whole month. Will we see some AN days? Almost certainly. Will we be as cold, anomaly-wise as November? Probably not. Anyway....

View attachment 26136

View attachment 26137

View attachment 26138

And here's the CFS for January. Not too shabby, especially compared to what it looked like a few weeks ago.

View attachment 26139
Click to expand...
That look could still be whole
NWMSGuy said:
Anyone have any thoughts on the possible severe weather next week?
Click to expand...
i got my eye ? it for sure... details later if models hold
 
only reason I’m not posting a thread is Becuase the ensembles are kinda meh, but boy the 18z gfs has that look of something mean, gotta remember the gfs isn’t good with CAPE and is often to low with it, but that wind energy is off the charts, look at the closed low in Texas, this is how you get tornadoes in the SE, good thing is, that the gefs ain’t impressed with it and cape may actually lack 6010103B-148E-4FF4-8E76-5FCC0D2A5295.png5B25B14E-D2CD-4F46-BAFE-2CB0AF8AA4EF.jpeg
 
As much as I want a cold winter and we may, I'll be happy just to have one winterstorm. It's all about timing anytime your in winter months. I do believe people on this board and maybe alot of us will see a major winterstorm this year one or two. This year models are showing us some SSWEs this year with some nice lows and souther slider, what a nice wet pattern and we only need some cold to mix in. It's all about timing. Some people on here may cancel fall, but fall is pretty below normal to me and feels great outside.
 
accu35 said:
As much as I want a cold winter and we may, I'll be happy just to have one winterstorm. It's all about timing anytime your in winter months. I do believe people on this board and maybe alot of us will see a major winterstorm this year one or two. This year models are showing us some SSWEs this year with some nice lows and souther slider, what a nice wet pattern and we only need some cold to mix in. It's all about timing. Some people on here may cancel fall, but fall is pretty below normal to me and feels great outside.
Click to expand...

Trying to time to cold with the moisture... ugh... I do NOT miss southern winter forecasting at all. It was soooooo nice never having to worry about the lack of cold (past November) in New Hampshire and having minimum of one event per week to track. Going back home to Raleigh after experiencing the average of 80"/winter back to 2-4"/winter is a bit soul crushing. Any wintry event, to me, is a win living here.

At least there's a certain charm to southern snow days comparing to the north?
 
Even if it’s just rain a thread should be made for all the thanksgiving week travel. I’ve always wondered what would happen if extreme weather caused big box stores to lose out on Black Friday sales? Has that ever happened in NC? I mean we would be talking billions...
 
WxBlue said:
Trying to time to cold with the moisture... ugh... I do NOT miss southern winter forecasting at all. It was soooooo nice never having to worry about the lack of cold (past November) in New Hampshire and having minimum of one event per week to track. Going back home to Raleigh after experiencing the average of 80"/winter back to 2-4"/winter is a bit soul crushing. Any wintry event, to me, is a win living here.

At least there's a certain charm to southern snow days comparing to the north?
Click to expand...


There's a certain charm to everything in the south compared to the north. Snow is about the only thing they have on us.
 
Batman said:
There's a certain charm to everything in the south compared to the north. Snow is about the only thing they have on us.
Click to expand...
I agree, the southeast doesn’t really have too many extremes, we have a little bit of everything, snow, tropical cyclones, severe weather, cold outbreaks, droughts ect.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
If Brad P. Doesn’t shut up about that fog on Twitter tonight I’m gonna lose my mind!!!!
 
Batman said:
There's a certain charm to everything in the south compared to the north. Snow is about the only thing they have on us.
Click to expand...

Well, northern summers are very mild and enjoyable. Especially if you're close to a hidden gem like Maine. And northern falls are also a lot more festive with much prettier foliage. Yikes... I sound like a Yankee now...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top