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Pattern Nippy November

Brick Tamland said:
Why are we looking past December already? Why are we even looking past 7 days? Everyone should know by now if you have been on the weather forums enough that those long range outlooks change and flip flop all the time form day to day.
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Brick you are right. There’s no reason to cancel December even if it tends to be on the warm side, it could end up normal and we could very well have seasonable temps and a storm to boot. But it’s OK to look past 7 days to day 10-15 to get an idea of signals coming up, and the models are largely backing off cold. BUT that doesn’t mean the heat or back off from cold means torch.
1) the heat doesn’t have to last all month just because a few days outside of Day 10 are trending warmer
2) what’s “more likely” doesn’t always happen, look at last year.
3) weather is complicated, especially during months Dec-Feb when the PV is being influenced and we have a long way to go to predict the outcomes (or lack thereof) of SSWEs.




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Jon said:
Brick you are right. There’s no reason to cancel December even if it tends to be on the warm side, it could end up normal and we could very well have seasonable temps and a storm to boot. But it’s OK to look past 7 days to day 10-15 to get an idea of signals coming up, and the models are largely backing off cold. BUT that doesn’t mean the heat or back off from cold means torch.
1) the heat doesn’t have to last all month just because a few days outside of Day 10 are trending warmer
2) what’s “more likely” doesn’t always happen, look at last year.
3) weather is complicated, especially during months Dec-Feb when the PV is being influenced and we have a long way to go to predict the outcomes (or lack thereof) of SSWEs.




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I don't understand the 2nd point you're making here because at least from December's standpoint, it was more likely we were going to end up mild than not last year, and that's what happened in spite of the fact we saw a one hit wonder winter storm in the beginning of the month.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't understand the 2nd point you're making here because at least from December's standpoint, it was more likely we were going to end up mild than not last year, and that's what happened in spite of the fact we saw a one hit wonder winter storm in the beginning of the month.
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Yeah I meant in reference to the chance at cold shots and near normal temps/storm chance. Just because we are warm doesn’t mean we don’t get a solid 8-10”. The thought here is when people hear talk about warm Decembers, they cancel the month. Just reassuring brick that’s not the case, at least in my mind.


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You can have a cold 2-3 days and see a winter storm in December. Then torch the rest the month. That’s just typical southeast.


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Webberweather53 said:
I don't understand the 2nd point you're making here because at least from December's standpoint, it was more likely we were going to end up mild than not last year, and that's what happened in spite of the fact we saw a one hit wonder winter storm in the beginning of the month.
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Eric, i respect you as a meteorologist. You do know your stuff. Like i previously mentioned many times, the mjo progression on the different models from dacula's site or cpc site show many different possibilities of where the mjo is going. Most have it in phase 8 and 1 though, which i thought were cold phases. If thats not true, which phases allow for cold weather and stormy in December for us? If any of them. I am probably confused on this i guess. Im sorry.
 
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Jon said:
Yeah I meant in reference to the chance at cold shots and near normal temps/storm chance. Just because we are warm doesn’t mean we don’t get a solid 8-10”. The thought here is when people hear talk about warm Decembers, they cancel the month. Just reassuring brick that’s not the case, at least in my mind.


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Yeah I think as long as the -NAO is there we have a legitimate chance to sneak in a storm before the pattern probably turns on us. The window for us to sneak a storm in seems most likely atm (ironically) in early Dec where we've had substantial hits the last 2 winters in a row.
 
e138fef3ee0c53a61182f249752d672f.jpg



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WxWatch said:
Do not let your guard down for the 23rd-24th time frame, a winter event is possible. I've been keeping track on this ULL that will be developing over the southwestern US by Wednesday/Thursday of this week. This ULL could be a winter storm maker for some across the Southeastern US. On this post, I'm not going to even bother including the GFS, it is a disaster at H5 (vort) This post is going to be focusing on the latest (12z) CMC. The reason why, today's 12z CMC has a much more realistic look up at H5.

Let's take a look,

The ULL is slipping under the northern stream which is dipping south and east, providing the cold air down on the back side of the ULL. Since this is an ULL, it is pulling arctic air pretty far south, which we'll take a look at that later on this post. What I would like to see is, the ULL to be a bit further south which is possible. The exact track of this ULL is unknown as this time.
View attachment 26123


Arctic Air Pulling South
Taking a look at the 850mb temps, as you can see, the ULL has a cold core, also it's pulling arctic air far south. As of now, with this setup, parts of the upper south could get a hammering of snow while some places may get some back side snow from this ULL.View attachment 26124

Over the coming days, I will start focusing on the track of the ULL and rather or not it would track further south, which again is a possibility. I do think there will also be severe weather on the warmer side of the ULL. The factors are indeed coming together for a winter storm to occur for some.
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When you spoke of this yesterday, I noticed it was taping in the northern stream. Now on the cmc it has a good flow from the SS.


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WxWatch said:
Do not let your guard down for the 23rd-24th time frame, a winter event is possible. I've been keeping track on this ULL that will be developing over the southwestern US by Wednesday/Thursday of this week. This ULL could be a winter storm maker for some across the Southeastern US. On this post, I'm not going to even bother including the GFS, it is a disaster at H5 (vort) This post is going to be focusing on the latest (12z) CMC. The reason why, today's 12z CMC has a much more realistic look up at H5.

Let's take a look,

The ULL is slipping under the northern stream which is dipping south and east, providing the cold air down on the back side of the ULL. Since this is an ULL, it is pulling arctic air pretty far south, which we'll take a look at that later on this post. What I would like to see is, the ULL to be a bit further south which is possible. The exact track of this ULL is unknown as this time.
View attachment 26123


Arctic Air Pulling South
Taking a look at the 850mb temps, as you can see, the ULL has a cold core, also it's pulling arctic air far south. As of now, with this setup, parts of the upper south could get a hammering of snow while some places may get some back side snow from this ULL.View attachment 26124

Over the coming days, I will start focusing on the track of the ULL and rather or not it would track further south, which again is a possibility. I do think there will also be severe weather on the warmer side of the ULL. The factors are indeed coming together for a winter storm to occur for some.
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Wx watch, when the euro or gfs gets excited about the chances, color me excited, especially the euro.
 
pcbjr said:
We haven't been out of the low 50's for 3 days and now it's cleared and the stars are out ... the radiator is working ...
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I would have to agree. Hogtown is 46 at 10 PM, which is colder than every reporting station in Georgia!
 
WPC sleeping on the job, not even a low chance of ZR for Virginia on the ice maps.
 
The GEFS has been wildly inconsistent and keeps on flipping between a SE ridge and then a trough due to ridging in Baffin Bay/greenland, I’d still lean warmer tho, many things going against cold anyways A9E6E3F6-BFB7-4106-8EF8-EF01A2D5C919.gif
 
The pattern that we have seen since the beginning of the month has been to keep us below normal to normal at most with temps. Maybe we will warm up eventually, but I am not so sure about a big torch and December being way above normal. I know in the past we have been in the opposite position, where we started warm in November and December, looking in the long range at the models for the colder pattern to materialize, only for it to be kicked further down the road. Just maybe it will be the reverse this winter, with us already starting colder than normal in November, seeing the warm up on the models in the long range, but it taking longer than advertised for the cold pattern to break.
 
Congrats to @pcbjr and Hogtown for having a low last night as cold or colder than all reporting stations in GA as far north as the Atlanta area!
 
None of this screams torch to me. I mean, I can certainly see our string of above normal Decembers makes us nervous. But looking at our favorite indexes, I don't see anything that is pointing to an all out torch for the whole month. Will we see some AN days? Almost certainly. Will we be as cold, anomaly-wise as November? Probably not. Anyway....

Indexes.jpg

MJO.gif

EPO1.jpg

And here's the CFS for January. Not too shabby, especially compared to what it looked like a few weeks ago.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_2.png
 
Rain Cold said:
None of this screams torch to me. I mean, I can certainly see our string of above normal Decembers makes us nervous. But looking at our favorite indexes, I don't see anything that is pointing to an all out torch for the whole month. Will we see some AN days? Almost certainly. Will we be as cold, anomaly-wise as November? Probably not. Anyway....

View attachment 26136

View attachment 26137

View attachment 26138

And here's the CFS for January. Not too shabby, especially compared to what it looked like a few weeks ago.

View attachment 26139
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Yeah I’m not seeing the models hone in on a long term torch pattern setting up in the extended. Sure, we can have 3 days with a ridge over the SE but when I think “torch”, I think of an extended period of above normal temps (extended being 15-20 days at minimum)... until models agree on a parameter that would all but guarantee a pattern lock for torch, I remain optimistic for December.


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Jon said:
Yeah I’m not seeing the models hone in on a long term torch pattern setting up in the extended. Sure, we can have 3 days with a ridge over the SE but when I think “torch”, I think of an extended period of above normal temps (extended being 15-20 days at minimum)... until models agree on a parameter that would all but guarantee a pattern lock for torch, I remain optimistic for December.


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As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5331200.png
 
I don't post often. Mostly lurk quietly checking in to get both SR and LR pattern information from some of the knowledgeable posters on this board. I find myself shaking my head on a regular basis though at the doom and gloom that can come with every unfavorable model or ensemble run. It appears that happened again this weekend with a few model runs. This led to calls for:

* December "torch" which now seems to be a term used by some for a model that shows even a even a few days AN.
* "Maybe January/February things will be more favorable"
* "This is looking just like last year."

I truly do not understand how adults (if we are all actually adults here) can have such emotional swings in opinion and emotion based on something that updates itself every 6 - 12 hours and has proved to be consistently inaccurate. Anyway, see below from Kirk Mellish. While I sometimes chuckle at his tactics and methods for verifying his accuracy in forecasting for the entire Atlanta area, I do believe him to be a very skilled met. His posts are often very informative based on no hype, but lots of substance. His blog this morning reinforces what many were thinking before weekend models let many here to add more Bermuda shorts and flip flops to their Christmas list.

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/weather-notebook-looking-ahead/IYNT9HqQf6ZkWApwa6rZpL/
 
Batman said:
I don't post often. Mostly lurk quietly checking in to get both SR and LR pattern information from some of the knowledgeable posters on this board. I find myself shaking my head on a regular basis though at the doom and gloom that can come with every unfavorable model or ensemble run. It appears that happened again this weekend with a few model runs. This led to calls for:

* December "torch" which now seems to be a term used by some for a model that shows even a even a few days AN.
* "Maybe January/February things will be more favorable"
* "This is looking just like last year."

I truly do not understand how adults (if we are all actually adults here) can have such emotional swings in opinion and emotion based on something that updates itself every 6 - 12 hours and has proved to be consistently inaccurate. Anyway, see below from Kirk Mellish. While I sometimes chuckle at his tactics and methods for verifying his accuracy in forecasting for the entire Atlanta area, I do believe him to be a very skilled met. His posts are often very informative based on no hype, but lots of substance. His blog this morning reinforces what many were thinking before weekend models let many here to add more Bermuda shorts and flip flops to their Christmas list.

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/weather-notebook-looking-ahead/IYNT9HqQf6ZkWApwa6rZpL/
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Very good info
 
KyloG said:
As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

View attachment 26140
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That Aleutian ridge does look like its trended stronger on the eps. Good point.


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KyloG said:
As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

View attachment 26140
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I’m not a fan of the pacific pattern, we’ve still seen very mild Decembers with a -NAO (2012-13 for ex).
 
KyloG said:
As long as we maintain that NAO block that would mitigate any well AN temps, the aleutian/goa ridge couple with the big low over Siberia usually means torch for us. Doesn't really matter first week of Dec regardless, a pattern reshuffle isn't always bad.

View attachment 26140
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Subseasonal hints are that this negative nao is going to decay and reverse probably some time during the 2nd week of December ish, the return of an Aleutian ridge, Indian Ocean convection, and positive North American mountain torque are all red flags that this negative nao will be on borrowed time in early December and it’s literally the opposite forcing we had about 2 weeks ago before this -NAO showed up. I’m extremely confident (probably 9 out of 10) a really mild/touchy pattern is going to rear it’s ugly head and show up at some pt especially for the northern us, lakes, & south-central Canada, & maybe for us, the fact that our cool pattern keeps getting kicked back in time and we’re seeing a milder pattern appear in the models closer to verification is a subtle hint. Remember when the models showed a cold end to Nov? Being replaced by a SE US ridge.

Persistent Indian Ocean forcing in a Nino December is a recipe for disaster... prove me wrong, because I’d love to be, im so sick and tired of warm Decembers
 
Webberweather53 said:
As noted earlier, we're probably about to encounter a period w/ enhanced tropical forcing over the West-Central Indian Ocean probably for the foreseeable future (note the -VP200a (green shading) over 30-60E longitudes in this hovmoller)

View attachment 26117


Lagged temperature composites paint an all too familiar, & grim outlook for December. Please note these are pentad (or 5-day) averaged positive lagged composites of 850mb temp anomalies over the US w/ a 0.5C contour interval and they're irrespective of whether or not the MJO continued w/ amplitude in subsequent phases.

For instance lag = 1 (top left panel) equates to the first pentad or about day 5, lag = 2 day 10, etc thus by the time you get to the bottom right panel for each lagged temp composite you're at day +25 from the MJO being in "x" phase.

In this instance, lag = 0 for phase 2 generally corresponds to Nov 20th, lag = 1 nov 25th, etc basically taking us to roughly the mid point of December &/or the winter solstice. The generally clue you should be getting here is basically the subseasonal base state favors a milder than normal pattern thru the middle portions of December, surely there may be intermittent cold periods in there, but I tend to generally agree w/ this idea for now anyways. The one thing that we currently have these composites don't near lag 0 is a west-based -NAO, which may allow us to at least remain seasonable & perhaps sneak a winter storm in until the -NAO has finally broken down.

In all honesty, I'd really love for this to be dead wrong and for us to be colder than normal & score a big dog in Dec. We'll see what happens.
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Nowhere in your incessant rambling did I understand a single thing with the exception of the words “the, and, of, is, & a”.
 
It almost feels like the past 8 Decembers have created an assumption that December 2019 will be warmer than normal as well. While that does seem likely (Niñoish atmospheric state even though ENSO is officially neutral, and El Niño Decembers tend to be warm), nothing is set in stone at this point. We do seem to following a similar pattern to the years with an AN December though.
 
Fwiw the GEFS has a mean for western and central NC through hr 180. Maybe some members catching onto the ULL development, or could just be one or two members skewing the mean.
Screenshot 2019-11-18 at 12.04.33 PM.png
 
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