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Pattern Nippy November

At least the long range EPS & GEFS are cold! :rolleyes:

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Also, keep in mind that there's a non-negligible amount of warming already "baked" into the 1999-2018 baseline being used here w/ the EPS on weathermodels.com, especially considering literally half of that period was spent torching in December here.

A negative 1-2F anomaly on the EPS via weathermodels would be average at best against the 1981-2010 base period, which most forecasters use to compare their monthly & seasonal forecasts.

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NoSnowATL said:
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This is December temps last year, I kinda thought it was warmer but I’ll track this December to how close it turns out.


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If I remember correctly the departure from average last December come milder nights. CLT had a lot of days in December that were close to average for highs, but ran about 6-8 degrees above on lows.
 
Ollie Williams said:
It means relative to average. This is graphic for 500 MB, roughly, the pressure heights about 32000 ft above the surface. Anomalies show you how high or low the pressure is relative to average. Typically lower heights correlate to below average temps, above-average anomalies correlate to above-average temps. Granted there are a large number of exceptions to that. Webb's graphic shows the GEFS pattern has gotten less favorable for cold weather.
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I see your point there. Thanks for the info!
 
Interesting that the 12Z EPS is colder than the 12Z GEFS in the 11-15. The EPS in the SE 0 to -2 vs 1981-2010 whereas the GEFS is +2 to +6.
 
GaWx said:
Interesting that the 12Z EPS is colder than the 12Z GEFS in the 11-15. The EPS in the SE 0 to -2 vs 1981-2010 whereas the GEFS is +2 to +6.
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The battle continues. At this point as myfro stated I would go with the more climate realistic model right now. The GEfS IS that model.


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Noticed TWC has my forecast for Saturday with a high of 48 and 50% chance of rain, while the local news station WNCN just showed a high of 58 with 30% chance of rain. Just a bit of difference.
 
GaWx said:
Interesting that the 12Z EPS is colder than the 12Z GEFS in the 11-15. The EPS in the SE 0 to -2 vs 1981-2010 whereas the GEFS is +2 to +6.
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It is worth mentioning though the 12z EPS corrected warmer in this same period & towards a central-western trough + SE US ridge.

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Why are we looking past December already? Why are we even looking past 7 days? Everyone should know by now if you have been on the weather forums enough that those long range outlooks change and flip flop all the time form day to day.
 
NoSnowATL said:
No one should be punting the whole winter right now, let’s see how January looks.


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Brick Tamland said:
Why are we looking past December already? Why are we even looking past 7 days? Everyone should know by now if you have been on the weather forums enough that those long range outlooks change and flip flop all the time form day to day.
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Thats true but its hard to get excited this year after being decapitated from the weather models last year... But it is a different year and things can change
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why are we looking past December already? Why are we even looking past 7 days? Everyone should know by now if you have been on the weather forums enough that those long range outlooks change and flip flop all the time form day to day.
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Well agreed a few days ago we were talking about the “perfect” pattern we were seeing on models
 
Bump if appropriate, but all of this seems like walking into a Casino ... lots of pretty lights, allure, and lure, but nothing's for certain though the odds are you'll leave with less than you came in with ... or once in a while maybe not ... and that's what all these models are ... a big "maybe today" ...
Folks, use the models as a guide but nothing more, and as Webb has pointed out there is so much dynamically going on, some of it a half a world away, a simple model run is not "jackpot" and not "bust" ... Look upstream and watch the trends carefully, then once you grab or sense the odds pick your table to sit at to roll some dice ...
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
True its just im low on energy from being let down last winter with 0.00 inches of snowfall... But I'll try my best to stay positive
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Most on here got pooped on last year. What scares me is how similar this fall has been to last year and how the end of fall looks compared to last year, will winter be a copy and paste as last year? I sure hope not but if you bet warm you win more then you lose. I have a feeling from what I have seen and read that January and February should be better. All we can do is be patient and pray.


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Brick Tamland said:
Why are we looking past December already? Why are we even looking past 7 days? Everyone should know by now if you have been on the weather forums enough that those long range outlooks change and flip flop all the time form day to day.
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Warm patterns are far more likely to verify than cold ones especially when the lower frequency chips (NINO Dec + subseasonal forcing + basic state climate) are stacked against you.
 
Folks, There's a bit of good news for cold preferers: the Happy hour GEFS is quite a bit colder than the mild 12Z run for 11/28-12/3 and is overall the coldest of the last 4 runs. This new run averages a SE anomaly of -3 vs +2 on the 12Z, and -2 on the 6Z/0Z. So, perhaps the 12Z GEFS is just an outlier even though the overall recent GEFS trend was going there.
 
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GaWx said:
Folks, There's a bit of good news for cold preferers: the Happy hour GEFS is quite a bit colder than the mild 12Z run for 11/28-12/3 and is overall the coldest of the last 4 runs. This new run averages a SE anomaly of -3 vs +2 on the 12Z.
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I'll drink to that ... then ... wake up and ...
 
Well the GEFS decided to flip from 12z and get much colder. The GFS looks better as well. I'm not going to get excited at the moment, you can't beat our new December climatology and with the modeled H5 pattern, it's a bit of a stretch to get any cold out of it. Not our classic cold signal. I have found myself saying that models will trend better, but rarely feel satisfied after saying that. With that being said, sign me up for member 3!
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Run to run change
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Anomaly
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NoSnowATL said:
Last December wasn’t that bad here, only 16 days had highs above average. I counted 7 below average. January and February truly sucked.


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Just looked again for history here and it wasn't that bad, the average high was low 60s and there was 8 "well above" days.

Now the lows were definitely up though. There was only 10 low temperatures near freezing or below it. After a few warm days to start December there was a 5 day stretch from the 5th to the 10th where it was below average to solidly below.

It's going to get really eerie if we have a severe event around early December, then get that same cold stretch and a possible winter storm.
 
As noted earlier, we're probably about to encounter a period w/ enhanced tropical forcing over the West-Central Indian Ocean probably for the foreseeable future (note the -VP200a (green shading) over 30-60E longitudes in this hovmoller)

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Lagged temperature composites paint an all too familiar, & grim outlook for December. Please note these are pentad (or 5-day) averaged positive lagged composites of 850mb temp anomalies over the US w/ a 0.5C contour interval and they're irrespective of whether or not the MJO continued w/ amplitude in subsequent phases.

For instance lag = 1 (top left panel) equates to the first pentad or about day 5, lag = 2 day 10, etc thus by the time you get to the bottom right panel for each lagged temp composite you're at day +25 from the MJO being in "x" phase.

In this instance, lag = 0 for phase 2 generally corresponds to Nov 20th, lag = 1 nov 25th, etc basically taking us to roughly the mid point of December &/or the winter solstice. The generally clue you should be getting here is basically the subseasonal base state favors a milder than normal pattern thru the middle portions of December, surely there may be intermittent cold periods in there, but I tend to generally agree w/ this idea for now anyways. The one thing that we currently have these composites don't near lag 0 is a west-based -NAO, which may allow us to at least remain seasonable & perhaps sneak a winter storm in until the -NAO has finally broken down.

In all honesty, I'd really love for this to be dead wrong and for us to be colder than normal & score a big dog in Dec. We'll see what happens.
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HWO out in parts of Virginia for freezing precip tonight into tomorrow morning.
 
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