I mean living in the south ur always gunnabe warmer there’s no getting around it ... I’m sure if we lived in Montana we wouldn’t be complaining of heat that’s for sure
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
But this is way more than a 2-3 day cold snap. So all cold lovers should enjoy it and not worry about what follows for goodness sakes..
I’m gonna go with the 1st pic!
I swear we get 2+ weeks of below normal temperatures in NOVEMBER and it’s not enough ?
GFS shortwave looks slower, It may look a bit better this run.
12z
18z
12z
18z
See if your still saying this in April, after 14 weeks of torch!
MichaelJ
Member
I did some research, like Larry did about cold and warm Novembers for GSO and the subsequent winters and came up with the following:
(data runs from 1903 to 2012)
Warm Novembers-
1909 N,
1921 A
1927 A
1931 MA
1946 N
1948 MA
1985 N
1999 N
2001 A
Cold Novembers-
1937 N
1947 B
1950 B
1951 A
1976 MB
1984 B
1996 N
1997 A
You can readily see there is a definite correlation in the warm Novembers with all of them being either N or above 56% A and 44% N
Also there is a pretty strong correlation in cold Novembers with 50% being B winters and 25% each for N an A
winters. While these are an EXTREMELY small sample size, it is interesting nonetheless
(data runs from 1903 to 2012)
Warm Novembers-
1909 N,
1921 A
1927 A
1931 MA
1946 N
1948 MA
1985 N
1999 N
2001 A
Cold Novembers-
1937 N
1947 B
1950 B
1951 A
1976 MB
1984 B
1996 N
1997 A
You can readily see there is a definite correlation in the warm Novembers with all of them being either N or above 56% A and 44% N
Also there is a pretty strong correlation in cold Novembers with 50% being B winters and 25% each for N an A
winters. While these are an EXTREMELY small sample size, it is interesting nonetheless
LP farther south this run
SnowNiner
Member
Oh it's there. But it's just a displaced WAR right now waiting in the wings to just pounce back on us; toying with our hopes and dreams allowing a tough in the east in November. Then viciously engulfing the SE for all of January through February. Vicious beast that it is...
GFS has big time eastern NC snow increase
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lots of actual ZR in there. Let's wait for the Kuchera. I really still am skeptical at this entirely.
Here you go. Some parts of NC still get a nice snow.
Significant zr storm for ENC this run
Ilovesnow28
Member
A few words from James Spann from his afternoon weather video...
NEXT WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday night, and that will represent the leading edge of the coldest air so far this season. New model runs are in, the now both global models (the American GFS and the European ECMWF) show a band of moisture ahead of the front, meaning we will need to mention a chance of rain Monday night. Then, on Tuesday, as the cold air rushes into the state, there is some evidence that the rain could briefly change to snow flurries or sleet before the precipitation ends. There is absolutely no skill in forecasting something like this six days in advance, but typically in a setup like this there is no impact from flurries, if we get them. Output from model ensembles suggests little in the way of meaningful frozen precipitation for now.
The big story is the cold air. Temperatures Tuesday could hold in the 30s all day over the northern half of the state, and by Wednesday morning as the sky clears, the low will be near 20. Colder pockets have a great chance of seeing upper teens. FYI… the record low for November 13 at Birmingham is 22 set in 1911… that 108 year old record could very well be in danger.
Temperatures will slowly moderate over the latter half of the week… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
NEXT WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday night, and that will represent the leading edge of the coldest air so far this season. New model runs are in, the now both global models (the American GFS and the European ECMWF) show a band of moisture ahead of the front, meaning we will need to mention a chance of rain Monday night. Then, on Tuesday, as the cold air rushes into the state, there is some evidence that the rain could briefly change to snow flurries or sleet before the precipitation ends. There is absolutely no skill in forecasting something like this six days in advance, but typically in a setup like this there is no impact from flurries, if we get them. Output from model ensembles suggests little in the way of meaningful frozen precipitation for now.
The big story is the cold air. Temperatures Tuesday could hold in the 30s all day over the northern half of the state, and by Wednesday morning as the sky clears, the low will be near 20. Colder pockets have a great chance of seeing upper teens. FYI… the record low for November 13 at Birmingham is 22 set in 1911… that 108 year old record could very well be in danger.
Temperatures will slowly moderate over the latter half of the week… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
ajr
Member
Quick look at the 12z EPS looks alright - deeper, better positioned trough and taller ridge out west would seem to let the northern stream piece dig further south and link up with the southern energy.
pcbjr
Member
Tossing this out there ...
Really enjoy, 'cause looks like it's gonna be a linear warm up afterwards for a while ...
Really enjoy, 'cause looks like it's gonna be a linear warm up afterwards for a while ...
I guarantee you most people on here would start complaining if there was wall to wall cold for 4 months. Its nice to have a little break from the cold occasionally.
pcbjr
Member
We'll see how it goes ... no complaining here ... just realistically looking at and commenting (without editorial) on what appears will happen ...
Well for you cold is in the 50s in the winter so i wouldnt expect you to complain lol.We'll see how it goes ... no complaining here ... just realistically looking at and commenting (without editorial) on what appears will happen ...