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Pattern Nippy November

WxWatch said:
The ULL that will be developing over the southwestern US within 5 days will still need to be watched. At the time the ULL pushes east, the pattern is looking like it will favor below normal temperatures. Though, that doesn't mean that the ULL will bring snow for most in the southeast; potential snow for some? yes.

View attachment 26094


Right now, my main concern is how this ULL will play out? Still too early to say for sure, it's all going to depend on how much connection there will be with the ULL itself and the northern stream. As of now, the GFS has too much connection with the northern stream and the ULL. Which, this means the ULL will become a flat wave and sheared, in that case, the system would become a frontal system with warmer temperatures ahead of the front and maybe some back side mountain snows.
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The GFS does not look good (of course, this is going to change) there is stronger connection with the northern stream and the ULL itself. As you can see, the ULL is not closed in tighter, the wave is flattening, an indication of a weakening ULL.



View attachment 26096

The above image is from the 18z ICON, which it looks way better. There is less connection with the northern stream and the ULL itself. The ULL is closed in tighter and no shearing, it's a healthy looking ULL. The whole point of this post is to point out what my main concern is right now, which again is the connection with the northern stream and the ULL itself.
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You are doing a damn good job! .


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0z GFS way better run, there is separation between the ULL and the northern stream. Some across the upper south may get hammered with snow on this run.
Edit: not really, it's not cold enough lol
gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png
 
Halfway through the month and CHA is -6.4 temp-wise. I think a BN month is close to a lock now (and probably well below).. no real super warm ups aside from 1-2 days before fronts on the models.
 
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For the 48 hours from sunset Thursday through sunset yesterday, I got an amazing ~3.5”. This was the wettest 48 hours in several months and is more than the climo average for the entire month of November.

Further inland at KSAV (airport), they got 5.35”! One CoCoRaHS station in the western part of the county received 8.03”! I wonder how accurate that was though. I got that by adding the 24 hours ending at 7AM 11/17, 11/16, and 11/15.

https://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/ViewMap.aspx?state=GA&county=CT

The heavy rain was not the whole story. The temps were unusually chilly for mid November with them being only in the high 40s to low 50s throughout just about the entire rain. To put this into better perspective, the normal highs in mid winter are 60. Combining that with breeziness made it a miserable period for many and a great time to be indoors. After the rain last evening though, I had a great walk in breezy high 40s.
 
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WxWatch said:
0z GFS way better run, there is separation between the ULL and the northern stream. Some across the upper south may get hammered with snow on this run.
Edit: not really, it's not cold enough lol
View attachment 26098
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I have to admit, I'll become at least mildly intrigued if the Euro/EPS camp becomes a bit more progressive w/ this SW US shortwave over the coming day or two & more aptly times the northern stream wave & cold push associated w/ it.
 
Black Friday shopping looks good
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snowcool776 said:
Hold up, what is an anomaly?
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It means relative to average. This is graphic for 500 MB, roughly, the pressure heights about 16000 ft above the surface. Anomalies show you how high or low the pressure is relative to average. Typically lower heights correlate to below average temps, above-average anomalies correlate to above-average temps. Granted there are a large number of exceptions to that. Webb's graphic shows the GEFS pattern has gotten less favorable for cold weather.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
It will go to the point where’s theres a full blown Aleutian ridge, Nuetral NAO at best, SE Canada vortex, SER, it’s all coming together
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Lol figures given that:
a) we're in a NINO Dec (usually mild)
b) E hemispheric MJO events favor warmth in the E US
c) our base state climate is getting warmer & skewing favorability towards warmth in general
d) we've had 8 above normal Decembers in a row, you'd be ballsy to try & buck the trend and forecast a below normal one here.

I knew better than to try & get even mildly sucked into this crap.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol figures given that:
a) we're in a NINO Dec (usually mild)
b) E hemispheric MJO events favor warmth in the E US
c) our base state climate is getting warmer & skewing favorability towards warmth in general
d) we've had 8 above normal Decembers in a row, you'd be ballsy to try & buck the trend and forecast a below normal one here.

I knew better than to try & get even mildly sucked into this crap.
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Ha I wonder what some of those fools that disagreed with you on twitter would say now regarding these trends
 
I surely hope we didn't waste our nice pattern here in November. Wouldn't mind torching in first half of December if it means we can flip back towards Christmas.
 
accu35 said:
I surely hope we didn't waste our nice pattern here in November. Wouldn't mind torching in first half of December if it means we can flip back towards Christmas.
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It will probably take until January but yes let December get warm because it was coming either way.


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Let's see what happens. If the SE ridge and WAR actually does show back up come December, and hangs around, at least ill know to move on this winter.
 
WxWatch said:
What warmth?
This is next week by the way. I'm not complaining, this is great!
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That pattern looks like it’s heading to something disgusting and something we saw in October/last December/last February, GOA ridge getting going in that placement will likely make the conus wide trough west based and room for the southeast ridge
 
Lol GEFS has flipped so much that Supercell composites are starting to increase in the long range in the western SE, typical with a ridge like that pumping in low-moderate instability, didn’t we have a severe threat at the end of November last year ? Lol
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol GEFS has flipped so much that Supercell composites are starting to increase in the long range in the western SE, typical with a ridge like that pumping in low-moderate instability, didn’t we have a severe threat at the end of November last year ? Lol
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Yep.... October and November repeat so far, December looks similar too as of now.


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