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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Why not post this in the cold/snow event thread that was created?More blues are showing
accu35
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Man I'm sorry, I didn't think about it
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If I lived on Mt Mitchell, my pants might be exploding now?!
Idk man, could be a solid backend anafrontal thump for SEC country. Similar to that App State game last night ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This would have been nice to see a month or so from now.
Cold rain FTL.
Cold rain FTL.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
36-37F in the eastern piedmont near the height of the day 6 costal on the Euro.
Talk about a nearly perfect setup. Maybe the CAD is underdone!
CAD isn't the problem, too much WAA. Midwinter, however, this could be a major ice storm
olhausen
Member
Then everyone here better move way north because that’s pretty much when the southeast can except to see accumulating snow most years.
I honestly wouldn't mind this pattern on the Euro verifying. The EPS, taking verbatim, favors a lot of LP. However as Webb mentioned, with blocking, colder ar would be more favored to make Its way into the CONUS over time. Not the worst pattern if this continues into our prime climo.
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Golf7575
Member
Ollie, post the 11-15 day maps if you canI honestly wouldn't mind this pattern on the Euro verifying. The EPS, taking verbatim, favors a lot of LP. However as Webb mentioned, with blocking, colder ar would be more favored to make Its way into the CONUS over time. Not the worst pattern if this continues into our prime climo.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I have 10-15
Thank goodness that trough axis over the Bering Sea is tilted back towards the Kamchatka Peninsula/far eastern Russia, once/if it gets to the Gulf of Alaska, we could torch.
pcbjr
Member
could?
This snow in Greenbay has me feeling like a jolly sumbitch
Downeastnc
Member
I love that your site has the Feb 1989 hit mapped, it was a monster and there is little out there about it and its not often remembered when folks talk about 1989 or big NC snows in general and its probably my #2 storm......its always the big coastal in Dec 1989 everyone talks about ( rightfully so in its own right) ....actually it was a hell of a week in Feb 89 seems like I remember there being storms and tornados even maybe on the 21/22....then a few days later a foot of snow...
Anybody find the -NAO in this pic?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Always only 384 hours away!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're essentially relying on the -NAO to save our butts in the long range on the GEFS.
I'm sure that'll end well!
pcbjr
Member
Glad my kids are grown and you're not reading them bedtime stories ...
In all seriousness, we have to just all calm down until after Christmas ...
NoSnowATL
Member
pcbjr
Member
You mean we need to wait until it’s actually Winter?
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Hmmmm ... now that is an interesting thought ...
... along with, perhaps, a pattern change that might happen in 6 weeks ...
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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When we are chasing 384 hour -NAOs in late Feb, what will be the excuse?You mean we need to wait until it’s actually Winter?
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I hit 29 this morning! Winning
pcbjr
Member
Maybe that you got it all in January?
NoSnowATL
Member
It may not get above freezing in Nashville on Tuesday. Pretty incredible for Nov 12th.
NoSnowATL
Member
Nothing crazy but comfortable temps to Thanksgiving.
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this is still pretty impressive for early mid november
Agreed, but I'd way rather have it showing up than not. Maybe, just maybe we can see a recurrence of it in winter for a change, instead of the other usual +NAO pattern. Then, maybe it can be helpful when we do get a more favorable general pattern supporting cold on our side of the globe.
North Carolina got 12km NAM’D
Interesting enough the SREF model plumes at 21z has more snowy members ... HRRR long range also looks like it could run for glory
Golf7575
Member
Do you have a link for the extended HRRR? I have not ever been able to find it.
ICON looking much better and temps really close
Here’s 2m temps and precipitation trends over the last 2 runs
Here’s 2m temps and precipitation trends over the last 2 runs
Jessy89
Member
I haven’t had much time to play around with this site, but Alicia Bentley has something for the new rap and HRRR, https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/rapv5_hrrrv4/comp/
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The 0z ICON would have been a colder run during that time frame if the high was over Southeastern Canada/Northeast US. If there was going to be snow out of this system, the southern edge of the PV would need to be reaching the OH River, which in that case, the upper south would be getting more snow. I doubt that PV will come further south due to heights building east. If any frozen precip, it will most likely be freezing rain.
The 00z GEFS has increased snowfall means again in North Carolina .. some folks could be in for a surprise in the piedmont ... Charlotte looks like the front comes close by 8-12 pm and strikes with cold before the heating of the day can get its act together ... will the cold finally outpace the precip this time?????
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 0z & 6z GEFS are night and day in the longer term wrt sensible impacts here in the CONUS.
Interestingly, the 0z GEFS is actually how most Decembers w/ a +EPO/+SCAND/-NAO have played out.
Those Decembers ended up torching the E US, & notice none of these years were significant NINOs.
Interestingly, the 0z GEFS is actually how most Decembers w/ a +EPO/+SCAND/-NAO have played out.
Those Decembers ended up torching the E US, & notice none of these years were significant NINOs.
MichaelJ
Member
I generally wait until the last 10 days of the month runs before I start taking the models too seriously about the following months outlook. As for the CFSV2, I wait until the first 10 days of that month before I pay it any attention . 