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Pattern Nippy November

SoutheastRidge said:
There was a big southern snow on Nov 2-3, 1966 that produced a large swath of 5-10" in TN and KY. I think AL may have received some snow as well.
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Trace for CHA and Knoxville. Not much of a storm for East Tn. 7.2 in Nashville and 4 inches in Huntsville Ala though. Odd storm, because when Huntsville gets snow, Chattanooga almost always gets some too.
 
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Ollie Williams said:
These are the GEFS members further south. Even Larry scores on a few of these, Particularly #17
GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png
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Even though I put zero stock in that happening, it’s still crazy seeing that for early November.
 
If we are going to see something with this potential, I rather have slow NW trend up to the event. I've seen many storm in past history that either went to much of a NW or had alot of us smiling. Hard to believe we may be tracking a legit storm in the near short term future.
 
I would look for the infamous NW trend to set in pretty soon, possibly the 18Z or surely by the 00Z. DC north should get some snow out of this, especially interior NY and NE
 
Also note the stronger and more NE Shortwave this run near Mexico
 
Might be one for the Mid Atlantic to watch based off this:

1572979179698.png

Did see on the 500 mb maps that the shortwave was stronger.
 
Still very far out. We won’t see models really settle into a single scenario until 120hrs out. Euro changed significantly from 00z to 12z which means it could change that much again at 00z tonight.


It’s November haha at least we have something to track.
 
Euro was actually way better this run at H5, stronger shortwave in the SW, northern stream energy formed a event for the MA, but the northern stream and that shortwave in the SW/Mexico never really interacted, but this was a trend towards other models, slowing down the NS and beefing up the shortwave in the SW/Mexico, ridging in the west looks all weird tho E175BAA5-8597-46DC-879B-9063B37E3A4C.gif
 
Honestly based off what I'm seeing, if the energy can get itself sorted out and it doesn't trend northwest, I can see an overrunning event in the upper south.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro was actually way better this run at H5, stronger shortwave in the SW, northern stream energy formed a event for the MA, but the northern stream and that shortwave in the SW/Mexico never really interacted, but this was a trend towards other models, slowing down the NS and beefing up the shortwave in the SW/Mexico, ridging in the west looks all weird tho View attachment 25449
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Yeah our precip will come from that Shortwave. Need it to continue to speed up and get pulled into the northern stream. Need to see a lot of speeding up though. Idk if we will see that much.
 
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