SimeonNC
Member
Is the NAM known for having a cold bias like the GFS/FV3?12k NAM has a downright cold day for most this Friday
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
In my memories, the NAM is pretty good to use for thermal profiles and not so much for precipitation. So many tend to take it's thermals and apply it to a blend of other modeling's precipitation, regardless of type. Many think it does okay with CAD, while like other modeling, slightly under doing it's duration and strength too, but gives a better picture of the intricate details.
Golf7575
Member
The way the ridge is oriented out west, systems are getting shredded when they try to come east or extremely suppressed. Too much positive pna imo.
The ICON seems to not phase with the NS, stays suppressed. Not the best start for our 00z runs.
Shortwave keeps speeding up, northern stream keeps slowing down 
The latest GFS has a 1053 mb arctic high.
GFS looks much better.
Looking more like its ensembles
GFS looks much better.
While we like these trends and that NS energy slowing down, we don’t want that to happen to much, WAR starting to make its self known, at this point tho it would just increase the moisture so it’s not a bad thing right now 
Philstorm91
Member
I don't think we've ever had a winter storm in November to my recollection this far south. It would be fitting after we got stuck in the oven through early October though.
Beautiful/classic overrunning setup on the gfs
Slow down fella, It’s wayyyy to early. I posted some percentages above, we have a 31% chance of seeing snow in the Triad area which would be the most likely area. I would wait until the Euro data and most of It’s ensemble members show something. Plus you don’t want to Jinx us
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This GFS run is kind of what I'm thinking if this thing happens. Overrunning with a winter storm in parts of the western SE and upper south.
The BAD news however, is honestly this appearing this soon. Is there still a major suppression problem? If so, then buckle up as we're going to see some more north corrections.
The BAD news however, is honestly this appearing this soon. Is there still a major suppression problem? If so, then buckle up as we're going to see some more north corrections.
:Weenie::Weenie:
bahhaahaha: 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Lets try to save this snow map (10:1 ratio). Do we see anywhere in the ballpark of this?
I'll give the GFS some credit, it's snuffed out a few things I think in the last month or so, just has been too cold in doing so. I have a feeling in the back of my head that the suppression issue is still a major problem.
Otherwise, I'd be like *tries to think of a way to get up to NC*.
I'll give the GFS some credit, it's snuffed out a few things I think in the last month or so, just has been too cold in doing so. I have a feeling in the back of my head that the suppression issue is still a major problem.
Otherwise, I'd be like *tries to think of a way to get up to NC*.
Philstorm91
Member
GFS 0Z run took me back to January 2018. What a winter weenie's dream!
If I see an honest inch of snowfall from this, I'll kiss a snake hole blindfolded for 30 seconds.
Edit: after it melts quickly of course. (Dat Nov sun angle)
Edit: after it melts quickly of course. (Dat Nov sun angle)
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Is it January or is it November?
I should also say that I showed to my dad a HIGH temperature map for next week from the Euro earlier today and it spawned him calling up his HVAC mechanic for maintenance this week.
I should also say that I showed to my dad a HIGH temperature map for next week from the Euro earlier today and it spawned him calling up his HVAC mechanic for maintenance this week.
This would be quite the event if it verified.
