FWIW the GEFS look much worse, even though there is much mote moisture like the GFS. Temps are warmer due to the hp begin further west.
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,396
- Reaction score
- 9,846
Lots to work out
Brent
Member
Euro is dry here not great
dry for everyone at 168
dry for everyone at 168
I
IF this were to actually occur, it would beat the earliest Carolina/GA ice or sleetstorm on record since at least 1950 by about 9 days (see 1971).
IF this were to actually occur, it would beat the earliest Carolina/GA ice or sleetstorm on record since at least 1950 by about 9 days (see 1971).
Snap out of it man!! The RGEM = DGEX
Just go with the warmest solution, and least snowy models, just like tv Mets, and you’ll be right 98% and disappointment, will be almost non existent! It really helps!
mob the models, the Euro coming N, and the GFS is coming N, that’s not good at all!
I think the NAVGEM is on our side, so there’s that! So NAVGEM/GGEM vs Euro/GFS! Seems like a fair fight!? If you extrapolate the next 2-3 days on this, it’s ? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm really not sure why everyone is having a panic attack, this was by far & away the most impressive EPS run yet.
The 6z GFS still shows the potential. In this scenario, north central NC sees a big ice storm and point north snow. Devil is in the details, whereas something is still possible.
Downeastnc
Member
For anyone outside of the mts even just seeing flakes in the air this early would be a major win.....looking at the records for GSO and I did see that Nov 10/11 1968 had 2"on the 10th and 3" on the 11th.....that's a decent thump anytime of the year.
Downeastnc
Member
The GFS keeps MBY below freezing from 06Z Wed till 18Z Fri, that' would be historic......absolutely crushing the min max records by 10-20 degrees.....I will believe it when I see it lol.
I would much rather have the eps on my side .... been slowly and steadily consistent bringing in more members
Congrats on your fantasy ice storm NC
^^That's one thing my area is good at; getting fantasy winter storms. I must get five feet of snow and five inches of ice each year from fantasy model runs.
Jeremy Camp
Member
Yes, impressive by far indeed as we get closer look for that freezing rain to expand further southwest into CLT, GSP and ATL!.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like from what I can tell, 7 or so of those members end up getting flakes into N GA. Not high, but it's something.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the maps from both Nov 1968 & 1987 via my website: https://www.webberweather.com/
November 11-12 1968
November 10-12 1987