• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Nippy November

Jon said:
I’m no where close to immediately throwing out the solution, just know which side I’m on as of now.... blocking is tough for any NWP so we will see.

12z does look better but still worlds apart. I prefer this look.
8fcd929ee43c508146d9be169cd6ef67.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It may be world's apart at 500 mb over Greenland, but the 2 meter temps in the SE are actually similar at 12Z.
 
Jon said:
I’m no where close to immediately throwing out the solution, just know which side I’m on as of now.... blocking is tough for any NWP so we will see.

12z does look better but still worlds apart. I prefer this look.
8fcd929ee43c508146d9be169cd6ef67.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Dang, that is not a bad look at all. Definitely better than the GEFS. I love seeing the +PNA knowing the EPS has been trending stronger closer to verification.
 
For a bit of comparison, this is the latest EPS mean, generally has a deeper trough in the east because the WC ridge is stronger due to weaker heights around Siberia.

I do find it ironic that we have been seeing a torch pattern in the LR this season, including the summer. Only for it to verify and have the NAO verify stronger. I feel like every winter season has a "theme" to it as far as the weather model performances. For example, in particular, 2017 was the winter of overperforming storms. Will this be our theme this year?
00z
1574769600-LYVImzMhlZ4.png

12z
1574769600-xfqhyO9P98A.png
 
For posterity I would just like to note that upon arriving back at the hacienda just now, I still have frost heaves in my muddy front yard. Pretty uncommon for this time of year
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
For posterity I would just like to note that upon arriving back at the hacienda just now, I still have frost heaves in my muddy front yard. Pretty uncommon for this time of year
Click to expand...
Better than dry heaves

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
It may be world's apart at 500 mb over Greenland, but the 2 meter temps in the SE are actually similar at 12Z.
Click to expand...

Yeah, still major differences over the Atlantic as well. But if I wanted one to verify I’d roll the dice with the eps pattern heading into December!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
48 for the high today, a new record low high.

My dad said 44 was what the thermometer near the house had during the "heat" of the day though (this thermometer often has warmer lows and lower highs though) and I'll tell you, when I was in the wind and shade it was very believable. But once I got to a sunnier area I was actually okay while outside.
 
It’s about 30 degrees and supposed to bottom out at 25 tonight. NWS GSP has it bottoming out at 25 at 12am and maintaining 25 till 7am. Not cloudy either. We will have to see ?‍♂️
 
Does anyone think we could get a SSW event before the QBO can officially go into negative territory whenever that happens? I was just curious. I have been hearing alot of talk about that lately.
 
Dew point and temperature are already meeting in the middle here around 27. Going to miss our forecast low again tonight. Next
 
It is fast becoming more like the November to remember. Check out how much colder is 11/23-26 on the 0Z GEFS vs prior runs with the help of a strong -NAO! With that, the 0Z GEFS says that other than a near normal day on 11/22, all days through 11/26 would be colder than normal in the SE. Yes, the GEFS typically has a cold bias. However, a cold bias doesn't mean it will always be too cold, especially if the strong -NAO were to verify. And it has done well with NAO predictions recently. Furthermore, the 12Z EPS trended toward a stronger -NAO. Trends, folks, trends.
 
Well, in the SE, very few Novs actually bear (snow fruit) with exceptional cold anomalies. Let's be real here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top