Fountainguy97
Member
Looks like Mid-South/Memphis area is still in play but looks like it's trending Northwest?Trending toward EURO! View attachment 25514
At the end of the day, its November. Its not supposed to snow yet, so I see no reason to be disappointedSome nice rains over the SE over the next week plus we get a couple of shots of cold. What's not to like...
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At the end of the day, its November. Its not supposed to snow yet, so I see no reason to be disappointed
Trending toward EURO! View attachment 25514
Yeah, we tend to see lots of back and forth in the 192+ hour time frame each year. Hard to get a reliable trend for an unreliable forecasting time frame. The only trend I'd say that has merit is the trend that widespread SE winter storms that show up at those leads usually end up not happening. Especially since it's mid-November, I wouldn't bet against that trend. Still worth watching though.So, the GFS didn't have anything yesterday, while the Euro did, and then the Euro didn't have anything today, while the GFS did, and now the GFS is showing less.
Not sure all this back and forth and the models switching places is a real trend. Kind of all over the place the last two days.
Looks like it does something similar to what the euro was showing a couple days ago
I do think it will lead to more of a suppressed wave due to the expected strong arctic high that will come down from Canada. There's absolutely no reason why the wave will trend further and further north and west.Could this lead to a more suppressed wave?
Except that at these leads, these massive arctic highs are usually overmodeled and press the flow too far south. We will see whether or not these low 1050s/upper 1040s highs trend weaker and farther north/northwest as we close in.I do think it will lead to more of a suppressed wave due to the expected strong arctic high that will coming down from Canada. There's absolutely no reason why the wave will trend further and further north and west.
True, the pressures are normally over-modeled, but there has been consistency of a very strong surface high coming down. Plus the time period is closing in, which means, that strong high has a chance at verifying.Except that at these leads, these massive arctic highs are usually overmodeled and press the flow too far south. We will see whether or not these low 1050s/upper 1040s highs trend weaker and farther north/northwest as we close in.