Nov 16 wintry weather threat

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Good luck. Hopefully not the kod

 

[Gibby]

From Pivotal, looks to be mostly ice..

 

[Rain Cold]

3k NAM unimpressed. Red flag?

 

[FallsLake]

At hour 60 we would have a great setup with plenty of cold air feeding down from the north. We now just need the low to provide the precip.

Dew points:

 

[ForsythSnow]

So you made a thread for one model run alone? And the 18Z NAM at that. I don't think this thing even has legs let alone a defined body.

 

[FallsLake]

3k NAM unimpressed. Red flag?

View attachment 25983

Yeah, I wouldn't bet any real money on this right now. Again, just interesting right now...

 

[metwannabe]

NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

Do you think that map is accurate? Do you think it's actually showing 3-6" of snow? Did you even consider the other post, maps, discussion that clearly showed this is a very minor icing event at best with no snow? I just don't understand...

 

[Broken024]

Should i buy some salt

 

[Rain Cold]

RGEM with warning shots!

 

[metwannabe]

RGEM with warning shots!

View attachment 25987

We're losing it....

 

[SD]

If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.

 

[Rain Cold]

If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.

RGEM is really robust with the QPF.

 

[metwannabe]

RGEM is really robust with the QPF.

Actually so was the Euro but just all liquid

 

[ForsythSnow]

I just can't see how any sort of precipitation other than rain can occur anywhere with temps in the mid 30s and 0 cold air aloft.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Very dry at the surface wet bulb potential in the north west but will moisture hit the surface? My guess it stops at the NC/SC state line with very little hitting the ground around Charlotte north.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

38 over 23. Screams sleet or ice. However I doubt any moisture hits the surface?

 

[weatherfide]

38 over 23. Screams sleet or ice. However I doubt any moisture hits the surface?

Looks more like 33 and rain to start, warming into the mid to upper 30's before it's over.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Looks more like 33 and rain to start, warming into the mid to upper 30's before it's over.

NWS added light snow from 2am to 9am for Wilkes but I’m not buying. Too dry.

 

[IWC]

Should i buy some salt

Be happy to sell you some...

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Ok wintry chances going up for many now. Georgia and most of Carolinas will “likely” see sleet/rain mix.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

air below 10,000 ft is very dry. (See sleet reports breaking out to our south-west per NWS Birmingham).

 

[BirdManDoomW]

This forecast is for everyone tonight into tomorrow, expect either precip to not hit the ground or SLEET per ground truth to the south-west. Until the air below 10,000 ft warms enough for all rain which will vary on location and precip rates if any.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Not November 16th but if you wanna change the dates of thread I expect a lot of sleet reports

 

[ForsythSnow]

Ok wintry chances going up for many now. Georgia and most of Carolinas will “likely” see sleet/rain mix.

Only thing frozen I'm seeing is my birdbath. I think there might be a connection here.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

GSP also added snow tonight for their northern mtns

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

RGEM with warning shots!

View attachment 25987

But it’s just one run! You always find the worst maps! Grrr

 

[SD]

RGEM is really robust with the QPF.

Yeah I saw that too bad I can't find soundings

 

[Rain Cold]

Yeah I saw that too bad I can't find soundings

Would be interesting to see what the 3k NAM showed if it actually got any precip back here.

 

[SD]

Would be interesting to see what the 3k NAM showed if it actually got any precip back here.

Yeah just pulled a sounding from the 3k when the 12k has the sleet bomb and its not horrible. At or below freezing from probably 850-surface with a warm nose just above that. Certainly supports the 12k idea of if we get precip during that period it might be frozen