• Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Nov 16 wintry weather threat

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,395
Likes
11,533
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
#8
NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

Do you think that map is accurate? Do you think it's actually showing 3-6" of snow? Did you even consider the other post, maps, discussion that clearly showed this is a very minor icing event at best with no snow? I just don't understand...
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
7,393
Likes
10,516
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
#12
If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
 

Rain Cold

In the Shop
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
4,757
Likes
10,298
Location
Raleigh, NC
#13
If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
RGEM is really robust with the QPF.
 

BirdManDoomW

Strange Bird
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
1,721
Likes
998
Location
NC
#16
Very dry at the surface wet bulb potential in the north west but will moisture hit the surface? My guess it stops at the NC/SC state line with very little hitting the ground around Charlotte north.
 

BirdManDoomW

Strange Bird
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
1,721
Likes
998
Location
NC
#21
Ok wintry chances going up for many now. Georgia and most of Carolinas will “likely” see sleet/rain mix.
 
Last edited:

BirdManDoomW

Strange Bird
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
1,721
Likes
998
Location
NC
#22
air below 10,000 ft is very dry. (See sleet reports breaking out to our south-west per NWS Birmingham).
 

BirdManDoomW

Strange Bird
Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2018
Messages
1,721
Likes
998
Location
NC
#23
This forecast is for everyone tonight into tomorrow, expect either precip to not hit the ground or SLEET per ground truth to the south-west. Until the air below 10,000 ft warms enough for all rain which will vary on location and precip rates if any.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
7,393
Likes
10,516
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
#30
Would be interesting to see what the 3k NAM showed if it actually got any precip back here.
Yeah just pulled a sounding from the 3k when the 12k has the sleet bomb and its not horrible. At or below freezing from probably 850-surface with a warm nose just above that. Certainly supports the 12k idea of if we get precip during that period it might be frozen
 
Top