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Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

Brick Tamland

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NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

 

metwannabe

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NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

Do you think that map is accurate? Do you think it's actually showing 3-6" of snow? Did you even consider the other post, maps, discussion that clearly showed this is a very minor icing event at best with no snow? I just don't understand...
 

SD

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If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
 

Rain Cold

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If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
RGEM is really robust with the QPF.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Very dry at the surface wet bulb potential in the north west but will moisture hit the surface? My guess it stops at the NC/SC state line with very little hitting the ground around Charlotte north.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Ok wintry chances going up for many now. Georgia and most of Carolinas will “likely” see sleet/rain mix.
 
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BirdManDoomW

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air below 10,000 ft is very dry. (See sleet reports breaking out to our south-west per NWS Birmingham).
 

BirdManDoomW

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This forecast is for everyone tonight into tomorrow, expect either precip to not hit the ground or SLEET per ground truth to the south-west. Until the air below 10,000 ft warms enough for all rain which will vary on location and precip rates if any.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Not November 16th but if you wanna change the dates of thread I expect a lot of sleet reports
 

SD

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Would be interesting to see what the 3k NAM showed if it actually got any precip back here.
Yeah just pulled a sounding from the 3k when the 12k has the sleet bomb and its not horrible. At or below freezing from probably 850-surface with a warm nose just above that. Certainly supports the 12k idea of if we get precip during that period it might be frozen
 
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