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Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

B

Brick Tamland

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NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

namconus_asnow_seus_17-png.25976
 
NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

namconus_asnow_seus_17-png.25976
Do you think that map is accurate? Do you think it's actually showing 3-6" of snow? Did you even consider the other post, maps, discussion that clearly showed this is a very minor icing event at best with no snow? I just don't understand...
 
If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
 
If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
RGEM is really robust with the QPF.
 
Very dry at the surface wet bulb potential in the north west but will moisture hit the surface? My guess it stops at the NC/SC state line with very little hitting the ground around Charlotte north.
 
38 over 23. Screams sleet or ice. However I doubt any moisture hits the surface?
 
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