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Nov 16 wintry weather threat

Rain Cold

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#91
24 hours out, the NAM should be taken seriously, imo. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential for freezing rain can't be ignored.

It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.

I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.
 
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#92
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.

I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.
Generally I prefer the 3km over the 12km when it comes to frozen precip depictions. Right now the 3km doesn't have any and hasn't for multiple runs now. I think the 12km is out to lunch here since no other meso model supports this. The warm nose aloft is depicted quite well by the 3km and keeps surface temps just a bit too warm in areas where the precip is.
 

Nick_boynton_

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#93
I would also like to point out that we have a heavy batch of precip moving into the Charlotte area ... absolutely no model I have seen so far shows any type of heavier precip heading into this area for the whole day so ... definitely an interesting nowcast trend that should be considered and may play a part or factor into the “frozen” threat
 
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#94
This is going to be a great early season test to see just how reliable, or unreliable, the 12 and 32k can be outside of about 6 hours.. I mean you would think at least a version of the DWARF? would show a similar frozen scenario, but even that’s not the case atm
 
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#96
I would also like to point out that we have a heavy batch of precip moving into the Charlotte area ... absolutely no model I have seen so far shows any type of heavier precip heading into this area for the whole day so ... definitely an interesting nowcast trend that should be considered and may play a part or factor into the “frozen” threat
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imo 32EAFCAD-239D-49BD-BD23-B5810BE5E4AE.png
 
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snowcool776

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#98
Sleet reported in Erwin RN.
Heard pellets near the entrance of my house. Guess it did snow...
 

SD

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#99
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imo View attachment 26016
1040 high in SE Canada namconus_ref_frzn_us_26.png
 
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Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imo View attachment 26016
It’s a fairly cold air mass with a strong HP as SD pointed out. I am not buying the big ice storm

yeah, it’s a cold air mass.
A534378D-BE50-4DDC-A457-2915CC7D8E5D.png
 

Rain Cold

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It’s a fairly cold air mass with a strong HP as SD pointed out. I am not buying the big ice storm



yeah, it’s a cold air mass.
View attachment 26019
Need a meso-high to set up around N. VA. A little deeper into the season with a decent snow pack up north, and this would be a legit threat. The track of the storm is good, and the placement of the high, while not ideal, is of sufficient strength to support a major winter storm, if other background conditions were present. Let's just see if the high can overwork a little bit here....
 

Nick_boynton_

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Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imo View attachment 26016
Probably a perfect combo of cold and dry air being pulled In from the high by the strengthening low off the south east ... perfect ingredients overlap in that section where best lift is
 
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With the strong high over NE and the bombing low off the coast the models continue to increase the wind field size and strength with gust well into the 40's getting inland RDU to I 95....NAM and Euro both have 50+ mph gust from I-95 east......Hwy 12 just reopened and that looks to be very short lived, if there is a 24-30 hr period of strong north winds this will end up being historically bad, the flooding at the coast is now projected to be 3-6 ft of surge possible in areas still recovering from Dorian.....with gust to near hurricane force possible on the OBX/IBX....really this is the last thing folks on Ocracoke need right now....
 
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snowcool776

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With the strong high over NE and the bombing low off the coast the models continue to increase the wind field size and strength with gust well into the 40's getting inland RDU to I 95....NAM and Euro both have 50+ mph gust from I-95 east......Hwy 12 just reopened and that looks to be very short lived, if there is a 24-30 hr period of strong north winds this will end up being historically bad, the flooding at the coast is now projected to be 3-6 ft of surge possible in areas still recovering from Dorian.....with gust to near hurricane force possible on the OBX/IBX....really this is the last thing folks on Ocracoke need right now....
Hunker down yall. If this low becomes a noreaster, it could bring numerous outages across the east coast.
If HWY 12 just reopened, why not they just move it somewhere else? Dorian, Florence, Matthew, all destroyed the Bonner Bridge.
 
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Hunker down yall. If this low becomes a noreaster, it could bring numerous outages across the east coast.
If HWY 12 just reopened, why not they just move it somewhere else? Dorian, Florence, Matthew, all destroyed the Bonner Bridge.
They are replacing Bonner Bridge now with a newer and bigger bridge, and they are taking a good chunk of 12 and turning it into a Bridge in Rodanthe.
 

Rain Cold

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18z nam with the bullseye over my house. Kinda funny though that everyone is crapping on it but when it nails a warm nose in winter everyone will be saying how it handles the thermal profiles better
True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.
 
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