Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.
Current run:
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24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):
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Just an all around abysmal effort.
This one had such promise too
RDU recorded .3" of rain Thursday night into Friday and models showing next to nothing for today. Was hoping for a good soaking today.