• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

View attachment 26041

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

View attachment 26042

Just an all around abysmal effort.

This one had such promise too :rolleyes:

RDU recorded .3" of rain Thursday night into Friday and models showing next to nothing for today. Was hoping for a good soaking today.

namconus_apcpn_us_fh48_trend.gif
 
Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

View attachment 26041

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

View attachment 26042

Just an all around abysmal effort.
Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday
 
The Nam 3k is much wetter....12K Nam has like .25" for me the 3K has 2.5" lol.....this is why the NAM is the NAM cant even agree with itself....already getting gust to 30-35 going to be a long windy 24 hrs......looks like we might even get a few gust in the 40-50 mph range later this afternoon into the evening as the low gets closer.....
 
Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday
I knew that was going to come up. The RGEM had 2 inches the other day. The NAM does this routinely, though. It's a horrible model. Plus, it's really the only one that has been consistently showing a bunch of ice.
 
3k NAM firing last minute warning shots... still interested to see if anything can make it far enough NW to sneak a little sleet in

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.
 
When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.

I think most knew that but as usual someone jumped the gun on starting a thread, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this winter.

I am surprised to seeing sun poking out this morning.
 
I think most knew that but as usual someone jumped the gun on starting a thread, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this winter.

I am surprised to seeing sun poking out this morning.
Sun poking through here at Triangle Towne Center.
 
I think most knew that but as usual someone jumped the gun on starting a thread, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this winter.

I am surprised to seeing sun poking out this morning.

Yes, because the thread itself is what decided what happens, and it is so critical if there is a thread about something that doesn't pan out.
 
Yes, because the thread itself is what decided what happens, and it is so critical if there is a thread about something that doesn't pan out.

You said it....it is so critical if there is a thread about something that doesn't pan out.
 
Oh this is hilarious , we weren’t forecast out of the low 40s today and we are about 50 now ! This on top of the NAM ice snow crap lol! New and all to this forum so not that familiar with brick but damn has brick really tainted my faith in his credibility on these matters lol.
 
Buoys offshore ramping up gusting into the low 50's it will be interesting if we see then get to the higher modeled wind speeds with lots of models in the 60-80 mph range in gust.....
 
I always think it's funny how people openly talk about a forum, how its run or what should be done or this and that are silly. Haha don't like the program change the channel or start your own.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top