• This website or discussions about the COVID-19 virus outbreak should be taken as entertainment. For official information on how to plan and prepare, please go to The Offical CDC Homepage By Clicking Here
  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,752
Reaction score
11,907
Location
Concord NC
True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.
yeah, this is it, tends to do well with showing SW winds aloft in setups and WAA correctly, but it aint the best at the surface, this storm was never really gonna happen lol
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
9,465
Reaction score
16,042
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.
3k is still close to a sleet sounding on the 18z run. Probably too thin of a cold layer but both the 12 and 3k have been consistent in at least getting the 900-975 layer below freezing. The 12z gfs was just a tiny bit warmer.
 

Attachments

snowlover91

Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2018
Messages
2,386
Reaction score
4,104
Location
Wilson, NC
18z nam with the bullseye over my house. Kinda funny though that everyone is crapping on it but when it nails a warm nose in winter everyone will be saying how it handles the thermal profiles better
The 12km is not as good with thermal profiles vs the 3km in my experience. The 3km and RGEM combo is what you want to go with inside 48 hours and right now neither of them show anything of substance frozen. Just a cold rain and windy in the east.
 

Brick Tamland

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,083
Reaction score
4,907
Location
Wake Forest, NC
Well, it's been a while since the Triangle had a good ice storm. The last big one I can recall is the Dec 2002 one. Not saying we're going to get an ice storm this time, but it doesn't take much error in the models with regards to temps or precip for it to end up being cold rain or ice.
 

ForsythSnow

Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,042
Reaction score
11,936
Location
North Forsyth County, Georgia
Well, it's been a while since the Triangle had a good ice storm. The last big one I can recall is the Dec 2002 one. Not saying we're going to get an ice storm this time, but it doesn't take much error in the models with regards to temps or precip for it to end up being cold rain or ice.
90% of the time with these setups, the temps are above what was expected. I'm sure it'll be in that 90 especially since there's literally no model support for this.
 

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,752
Reaction score
11,907
Location
Concord NC
3k is still close to a sleet sounding on the 18z run. Probably too thin of a cold layer but both the 12 and 3k have been consistent in at least getting the 900-975 layer below freezing. The 12z gfs was just a tiny bit warmer.
Definitely gonna be hard to get any sleet with that type of sounding, right above that little layer, thats a lot of WAA, which will Hurt that cold layer a bit if precipitation is heavy, even with a CAA trying to win out, and raindrops will be harder to refreeze with that amount of warm air above that freezing layer, if the warm nose was smaller, Than sleet would definitely be possible
 

Lickwx

Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2019
Messages
233
Reaction score
289
Location
Lizard lick
They are replacing Bonner Bridge now with a newer and bigger bridge, and they are taking a good chunk of 12 and turning it into a Bridge in Rodanthe.
That’s terrible that road is literally causing the demise of those islands , that and rampant development . The outer banks are giant sand bars that need to move with the tides not stay in place for a road, as a result of that road the natural process of shrinking and rebuilding is disrupted and has been replaced by straight erosion.
 

ForsythSnow

Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,042
Reaction score
11,936
Location
North Forsyth County, Georgia
I’d say one one more NAM run then lock
I've been thinking this thread has been useless from the beginning. There's a reason we don't just create threads and call them storms when one model is on an island inside a few days for one run. But I mean it's enough of a topic to discuss so I guess it'll stay open.

I don't understand the infatuation with locking threads.
Same with creating threads.
 

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,752
Reaction score
11,907
Location
Concord NC
well idk y’all lock some and sometimes y’all don’t lock, most of the time y’all lock the useless threads, and this is a thread that’s about a little event at maximum, but I really don’t care for a locked thread or it not being locked
 

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,752
Reaction score
11,907
Location
Concord NC
This was a thread that should of never existed 🤣 but I mean it wouldn’t shock me that some areas see some sleet pellets or a glaze of ice
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
9,465
Reaction score
16,042
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
well idk y’all lock some and sometimes y’all don’t lock, most of the time y’all lock the useless threads, and this is a thread that’s about a little event at maximum, but I really don’t care for a locked thread or it not being locked
Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches
 

Myfrotho704_

RidgeSZN
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
7,752
Reaction score
11,907
Location
Concord NC
Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches
Very true, doesn’t look pretty at the OBX, especially when that decent pressure gradient develops
 

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
1,427
Reaction score
2,480
Location
Greenville NC
Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches
The models continue to get insane with this later tomorrow into tomorrow night, hopefully these wind maps are overdone they usually are, typically even in a strong Noreaster we rarely see winds over 40 mph in gust this far inland.....but even 30-40 mph winds can cause massive surge if they last 24-30 hrs....

Just in the last few hrs I have started to hear a few wind gust in the house so already getting into the mid 20's probably.....there will be no leaves left on most trees come Sunday.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
9,465
Reaction score
16,042
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
The models continue to get insane with this later tomorrow into tomorrow night, hopefully these wind maps are overdone they usually are, typically even in a strong Noreaster we rarely see winds over 40 mph in gust this far inland.....but even 30-40 mph winds can cause massive surge if they last 24-30 hrs....

Just in the last few hrs I have started to hear a few wind gust in the house so already getting into the mid 20's probably.....there will be no leaves left on most trees come Sunday.
Yeah I've had a few gusts in the last hour around 15-18 and we are still 12 hours away from things picking up
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,358
Reaction score
16,779
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
Yeah I've had a few gusts in the last hour around 15-18 and we are still 12 hours away from things picking up
The game at Campbell (1:00) should be fun tomorrow, rain, strong winds with windchills in the upper 20's....fun. If my daughter wasn't part of operations and it wasnt they're last home game I'd sit this one out that's for sure.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Rain Cold

Fixed
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,429
Reaction score
15,027
Location
Raleigh, NC
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.

I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.
Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

namconus_apcpn_seus_25.png

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

namconus_apcpn_seus_28.png

Just an all around abysmal effort.
 

KyloG

Member
Joined
Feb 20, 2019
Messages
1,729
Reaction score
5,385
Location
Raleigh
Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

View attachment 26041

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

View attachment 26042

Just an all around abysmal effort.
This one had such promise too :rolleyes:

RDU recorded .3" of rain Thursday night into Friday and models showing next to nothing for today. Was hoping for a good soaking today.

namconus_apcpn_us_fh48_trend.gif
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
9,465
Reaction score
16,042
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

View attachment 26041

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

View attachment 26042

Just an all around abysmal effort.
Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday
 

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
1,427
Reaction score
2,480
Location
Greenville NC
The Nam 3k is much wetter....12K Nam has like .25" for me the 3K has 2.5" lol.....this is why the NAM is the NAM cant even agree with itself....already getting gust to 30-35 going to be a long windy 24 hrs......looks like we might even get a few gust in the 40-50 mph range later this afternoon into the evening as the low gets closer.....
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,358
Reaction score
16,779
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday
I saw local station in house model yesterday showing some mixed precip, so yeah to your point NAM not the only one that was wrong.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Rain Cold

Fixed
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,429
Reaction score
15,027
Location
Raleigh, NC
Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday
I knew that was going to come up. The RGEM had 2 inches the other day. The NAM does this routinely, though. It's a horrible model. Plus, it's really the only one that has been consistently showing a bunch of ice.
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,358
Reaction score
16,779
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
3k NAM firing last minute warning shots... still interested to see if anything can make it far enough NW to sneak a little sleet in

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 

Rain Cold

Fixed
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,429
Reaction score
15,027
Location
Raleigh, NC
When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,358
Reaction score
16,779
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Top