Nov 16 wintry weather threat

[Myfrotho704_]

True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.

yeah, this is it, tends to do well with showing SW winds aloft in setups and WAA correctly, but it aint the best at the surface, this storm was never really gonna happen lol

 

[SD]

True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.

3k is still close to a sleet sounding on the 18z run. Probably too thin of a cold layer but both the 12 and 3k have been consistent in at least getting the 900-975 layer below freezing. The 12z gfs was just a tiny bit warmer.

 

[snowlover91]

18z nam with the bullseye over my house. Kinda funny though that everyone is crapping on it but when it nails a warm nose in winter everyone will be saying how it handles the thermal profiles better

The 12km is not as good with thermal profiles vs the 3km in my experience. The 3km and RGEM combo is what you want to go with inside 48 hours and right now neither of them show anything of substance frozen. Just a cold rain and windy in the east.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, it's been a while since the Triangle had a good ice storm. The last big one I can recall is the Dec 2002 one. Not saying we're going to get an ice storm this time, but it doesn't take much error in the models with regards to temps or precip for it to end up being cold rain or ice.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Well, it's been a while since the Triangle had a good ice storm. The last big one I can recall is the Dec 2002 one. Not saying we're going to get an ice storm this time, but it doesn't take much error in the models with regards to temps or precip for it to end up being cold rain or ice.

90% of the time with these setups, the temps are above what was expected. I'm sure it'll be in that 90 especially since there's literally no model support for this.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

3k is still close to a sleet sounding on the 18z run. Probably too thin of a cold layer but both the 12 and 3k have been consistent in at least getting the 900-975 layer below freezing. The 12z gfs was just a tiny bit warmer.

Definitely gonna be hard to get any sleet with that type of sounding, right above that little layer, thats a lot of WAA, which will Hurt that cold layer a bit if precipitation is heavy, even with a CAA trying to win out, and raindrops will be harder to refreeze with that amount of warm air above that freezing layer, if the warm nose was smaller, Than sleet would definitely be possible

 

[Downeastnc]

Yikes

"As the gradient winds spread across eastern NC expect sustained winds to
increase to 20-30 kts inland and 30-40 kts over the coastal areas with gusts as high as 60-70 kts possible."

 

[tramadoc]

Might as well put some maps and stuff up.

12z WRF ALF2:

View attachment 26022

0z WRF NMMILF1: Still going on att


View attachment 26023

Just go ahead and throw the DGEX out there while you’re at it.

 

[Lickwx]

They are replacing Bonner Bridge now with a newer and bigger bridge, and they are taking a good chunk of 12 and turning it into a Bridge in Rodanthe.

That’s terrible that road is literally causing the demise of those islands , that and rampant development . The outer banks are giant sand bars that need to move with the tides not stay in place for a road, as a result of that road the natural process of shrinking and rebuilding is disrupted and has been replaced by straight erosion.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d say one more NAM run then lock

 

[SD]

I don't understand the infatuation with locking threads.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I’d say one one more NAM run then lock

I've been thinking this thread has been useless from the beginning. There's a reason we don't just create threads and call them storms when one model is on an island inside a few days for one run. But I mean it's enough of a topic to discuss so I guess it'll stay open.

I don't understand the infatuation with locking threads.

Same with creating threads.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

well idk y’all lock some and sometimes y’all don’t lock, most of the time y’all lock the useless threads, and this is a thread that’s about a little event at maximum, but I really don’t care for a locked thread or it not being locked

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This was a thread that should of never existed 🤣 but I mean it wouldn’t shock me that some areas see some sleet pellets or a glaze of ice

 

[SD]

well idk y’all lock some and sometimes y’all don’t lock, most of the time y’all lock the useless threads, and this is a thread that’s about a little event at maximum, but I really don’t care for a locked thread or it not being locked

Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches

Very true, doesn’t look pretty at the OBX, especially when that decent pressure gradient develops

 

[Downeastnc]

Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches

The models continue to get insane with this later tomorrow into tomorrow night, hopefully these wind maps are overdone they usually are, typically even in a strong Noreaster we rarely see winds over 40 mph in gust this far inland.....but even 30-40 mph winds can cause massive surge if they last 24-30 hrs....

Just in the last few hrs I have started to hear a few wind gust in the house so already getting into the mid 20's probably.....there will be no leaves left on most trees come Sunday.

 

[SD]

The models continue to get insane with this later tomorrow into tomorrow night, hopefully these wind maps are overdone they usually are, typically even in a strong Noreaster we rarely see winds over 40 mph in gust this far inland.....but even 30-40 mph winds can cause massive surge if they last 24-30 hrs....

Just in the last few hrs I have started to hear a few wind gust in the house so already getting into the mid 20's probably.....there will be no leaves left on most trees come Sunday.

Yeah I've had a few gusts in the last hour around 15-18 and we are still 12 hours away from things picking up

 

[metwannabe]

Yeah I've had a few gusts in the last hour around 15-18 and we are still 12 hours away from things picking up

The game at Campbell (1:00) should be fun tomorrow, rain, strong winds with windchills in the upper 20's....fun. If my daughter wasn't part of operations and it wasnt they're last home game I'd sit this one out that's for sure.

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[Rain Cold]

It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.

I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.

Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:



24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):



Just an all around abysmal effort.

 

[KyloG]

Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

View attachment 26041

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

View attachment 26042

Just an all around abysmal effort.

This one had such promise too

RDU recorded .3" of rain Thursday night into Friday and models showing next to nothing for today. Was hoping for a good soaking today.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

3km NAM.

 

[SD]

Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.

Current run:

View attachment 26041

24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):

View attachment 26042

Just an all around abysmal effort.

Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday

 

[metwannabe]

Getting wind gust up to 25 or so already this morning

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[Downeastnc]

The Nam 3k is much wetter....12K Nam has like .25" for me the 3K has 2.5" lol.....this is why the NAM is the NAM cant even agree with itself....already getting gust to 30-35 going to be a long windy 24 hrs......looks like we might even get a few gust in the 40-50 mph range later this afternoon into the evening as the low gets closer.....

 

[metwannabe]

Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday

I saw local station in house model yesterday showing some mixed precip, so yeah to your point NAM not the only one that was wrong.

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[Rain Cold]

Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday

I knew that was going to come up. The RGEM had 2 inches the other day. The NAM does this routinely, though. It's a horrible model. Plus, it's really the only one that has been consistently showing a bunch of ice.

 

[metwannabe]

3k NAM firing last minute warning shots... still interested to see if anything can make it far enough NW to sneak a little sleet in

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[Rain Cold]

When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.

 

[metwannabe]

When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.

IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.

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