yeah, this is it, tends to do well with showing SW winds aloft in setups and WAA correctly, but it aint the best at the surface, this storm was never really gonna happen lol
-
This website or discussions about the COVID-19 virus outbreak should be taken as entertainment. For official information on how to plan and prepare, please go to The Offical CDC Homepage By Clicking Here
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat
- Thread starter Brick Tamland
- Start date
3k is still close to a sleet sounding on the 18z run. Probably too thin of a cold layer but both the 12 and 3k have been consistent in at least getting the 900-975 layer below freezing. The 12z gfs was just a tiny bit warmer.
Attachments
snowlover91
Member
Brick Tamland
Member
Well, it's been a while since the Triangle had a good ice storm. The last big one I can recall is the Dec 2002 one. Not saying we're going to get an ice storm this time, but it doesn't take much error in the models with regards to temps or precip for it to end up being cold rain or ice.
90% of the time with these setups, the temps are above what was expected. I'm sure it'll be in that 90 especially since there's literally no model support for this.
Definitely gonna be hard to get any sleet with that type of sounding, right above that little layer, thats a lot of WAA, which will Hurt that cold layer a bit if precipitation is heavy, even with a CAA trying to win out, and raindrops will be harder to refreeze with that amount of warm air above that freezing layer, if the warm nose was smaller, Than sleet would definitely be possible
Downeastnc
Member
tramadoc
Member
Just go ahead and throw the DGEX out there while you’re at it.
Lickwx
Member
That’s terrible that road is literally causing the demise of those islands , that and rampant development . The outer banks are giant sand bars that need to move with the tides not stay in place for a road, as a result of that road the natural process of shrinking and rebuilding is disrupted and has been replaced by straight erosion.
I’d say one more NAM run then lock
I don't understand the infatuation with locking threads.
I've been thinking this thread has been useless from the beginning. There's a reason we don't just create threads and call them storms when one model is on an island inside a few days for one run. But I mean it's enough of a topic to discuss so I guess it'll stay open.
Same with creating threads.
well idk y’all lock some and sometimes y’all don’t lock, most of the time y’all lock the useless threads, and this is a thread that’s about a little event at maximum, but I really don’t care for a locked thread or it not being locked
This was a thread that should of never existed 
but I mean it wouldn’t shock me that some areas see some sleet pellets or a glaze of ice
but I mean it wouldn’t shock me that some areas see some sleet pellets or a glaze of ice
Yeah idk personally I don't have a problem leaving threads open you never know when they might be bumped for something down the line. Just speaking on this thread I think it would have been ok to start regardless of any winter threat given the potential impacts to the beaches
Downeastnc
Member
The models continue to get insane with this later tomorrow into tomorrow night, hopefully these wind maps are overdone they usually are, typically even in a strong Noreaster we rarely see winds over 40 mph in gust this far inland.....but even 30-40 mph winds can cause massive surge if they last 24-30 hrs....
Just in the last few hrs I have started to hear a few wind gust in the house so already getting into the mid 20's probably.....there will be no leaves left on most trees come Sunday.
Yeah I've had a few gusts in the last hour around 15-18 and we are still 12 hours away from things picking up
Well, as I suspected, option number 2 it is. The NAM is such a horrible, horrible model. I'm not sure why anyone ever believes anything it shows, unless it's warm-nose related.
Current run:
24 hours ago (and even 18 hours ago was about as bad):
Just an all around abysmal effort.
This one had such promise too
RDU recorded .3" of rain Thursday night into Friday and models showing next to nothing for today. Was hoping for a good soaking today.
3km NAM.
Euro had way over 1 inch at 12z yesterday
Getting wind gust up to 25 or so already this morning
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Downeastnc
Member
The Nam 3k is much wetter....12K Nam has like .25" for me the 3K has 2.5" lol.....this is why the NAM is the NAM cant even agree with itself....already getting gust to 30-35 going to be a long windy 24 hrs......looks like we might even get a few gust in the 40-50 mph range later this afternoon into the evening as the low gets closer.....
3k NAM firing last minute warning shots... still interested to see if anything can make it far enough NW to sneak a little sleet in
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
When I posted the inital clown map in the other thread, it wasn't my intent to sound the alarm on a winter storm threat. I was more or less just goofing around. After the thread was started, I felt like it didn't matter if the dumb clown maps were posted in the thread. I felt like I was pretty clear that I didn't endorse them. Either way, I don't think there's a great case to be made in favor of the NAM being a very reliable model...not that the rest of them are all that stellar.
IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.
IMO, it's usually a good rule of thumb to cut it's 24+ hour precip totals back by ar least half, and bump the surface temps slightly.
