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Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

It’s a fairly cold air mass with a strong HP as SD pointed out. I am not buying the big ice storm



yeah, it’s a cold air mass.
View attachment 26019
Need a meso-high to set up around N. VA. A little deeper into the season with a decent snow pack up north, and this would be a legit threat. The track of the storm is good, and the placement of the high, while not ideal, is of sufficient strength to support a major winter storm, if other background conditions were present. Let's just see if the high can overwork a little bit here....
 
Please never use the Wrf-ARW2. It's an utter garbage model that always overjuices systems. It's also the only one showing any ice. The standard ARW has barely anything.
Thanks FS, thought it was for real. ?
 
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imoView attachment 26016
Probably a perfect combo of cold and dry air being pulled In from the high by the strengthening low off the south east ... perfect ingredients overlap in that section where best lift is
 
With the strong high over NE and the bombing low off the coast the models continue to increase the wind field size and strength with gust well into the 40's getting inland RDU to I 95....NAM and Euro both have 50+ mph gust from I-95 east......Hwy 12 just reopened and that looks to be very short lived, if there is a 24-30 hr period of strong north winds this will end up being historically bad, the flooding at the coast is now projected to be 3-6 ft of surge possible in areas still recovering from Dorian.....with gust to near hurricane force possible on the OBX/IBX....really this is the last thing folks on Ocracoke need right now....
 
With the strong high over NE and the bombing low off the coast the models continue to increase the wind field size and strength with gust well into the 40's getting inland RDU to I 95....NAM and Euro both have 50+ mph gust from I-95 east......Hwy 12 just reopened and that looks to be very short lived, if there is a 24-30 hr period of strong north winds this will end up being historically bad, the flooding at the coast is now projected to be 3-6 ft of surge possible in areas still recovering from Dorian.....with gust to near hurricane force possible on the OBX/IBX....really this is the last thing folks on Ocracoke need right now....
Hunker down yall. If this low becomes a noreaster, it could bring numerous outages across the east coast.
If HWY 12 just reopened, why not they just move it somewhere else? Dorian, Florence, Matthew, all destroyed the Bonner Bridge.
 
Hunker down yall. If this low becomes a noreaster, it could bring numerous outages across the east coast.
If HWY 12 just reopened, why not they just move it somewhere else? Dorian, Florence, Matthew, all destroyed the Bonner Bridge.

They are replacing Bonner Bridge now with a newer and bigger bridge, and they are taking a good chunk of 12 and turning it into a Bridge in Rodanthe.
 
Looks like moisture is a not going as far west this time on 18z NAM vs 12z

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I anticipate one more NAM'ing to really suck us in and then the 0z will pull the rug, it hurts more like that. The NAM is evil

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Well I was wrong, rug pulled....

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18z nam with the bullseye over my house. Kinda funny though that everyone is crapping on it but when it nails a warm nose in winter everyone will be saying how it handles the thermal profiles better
True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.
 
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