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Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

Can't post any pics but the 12z NAM is showing a freezing rain crush job from RDU westward to Greensboro / just NE of Charlotte. But temps are showing at or just below freezing so the >1" totals would be suspect event with the NAMs setup.
 
Lol...this fantasy run would have 1.51" of freezing rain at my location at hour 42 and it would still be coming down.

**one thing I can say; my location is great at getting fantasy winter storms. Now if I could just get a quarter of them I would be doing great.
 
Can't post any pics but the 12z NAM is showing a freezing rain crush job from RDU westward to Greensboro / just NE of Charlotte. But temps are showing at or just below freezing so the >1" totals would be suspect event with the NAMs setup.
I got you:namconus_asnow_seus_17.png
 
Again, I suppose it's possible (..freezing rain). This is an usual setup with the cutoff low and then a with a high pushing down cold/dry air from the north. Of course the plus one inch totals are way overboard; whereas with temps at 30-32, much would run off. So maybe somebody could see a quarter inch, which would meet winter storm criteria. **Interesting
 
Again, I suppose it's possible (..freezing rain). This is an usual setup with the cutoff low and then a with a high pushing down cold/dry air from the north. Of course the plus one inch totals are way overboard; whereas with temps at 30-32, much would run off. So maybe somebody could see a quarter inch, which would meet winter storm criteria. **Interesting
Agreed. Need to look at a sounding and see how much, if any, would be sleet. But again, it's the NAM. Curious to see what the RGEM and Euro and HRRrrRRr look like.
 
Agreed. Need to look at a sounding and see how much, if any, would be sleet. But again, it's the NAM. Curious to see what the RGEM and Euro and HRRrrRRr look like.
The 12z HRRR at hour 36 is not as crazy as the NAM (not surprising). But it does show our low cutoff to our SE with precip (rain) banding into central NC. At the same time, cold(er) air is pushing southward into our region. I would love to see what it showed going out another 12 hours.
 
The 12z HRRR at hour 36 is not as crazy as the NAM (not surprising). But it does show our low cutoff to our SE with precip (rain) banding into central NC. At the same time, cold(er) air is pushing southward into our region. I would love to see what it showed going out another 12 hours.
Tune in tonight at 9:45 PM! :)
 
24 hours out, the NAM should be taken seriously, imo. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential for freezing rain can't be ignored.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
 
24 hours out, the NAM should be taken seriously, imo. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential for freezing rain can't be ignored.

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.

I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.
 
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.

I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.

Generally I prefer the 3km over the 12km when it comes to frozen precip depictions. Right now the 3km doesn't have any and hasn't for multiple runs now. I think the 12km is out to lunch here since no other meso model supports this. The warm nose aloft is depicted quite well by the 3km and keeps surface temps just a bit too warm in areas where the precip is.
 
I would also like to point out that we have a heavy batch of precip moving into the Charlotte area ... absolutely no model I have seen so far shows any type of heavier precip heading into this area for the whole day so ... definitely an interesting nowcast trend that should be considered and may play a part or factor into the “frozen” threat
 
This is going to be a great early season test to see just how reliable, or unreliable, the 12 and 32k can be outside of about 6 hours.. I mean you would think at least a version of the DWARF? would show a similar frozen scenario, but even that’s not the case atm
 
3km is pretty good with temps but it's not with westward extend of precip, it's usually to stingy. Temps are there in the piedmont I would think. The 12km NAM pushes the precip further west.

nam3km_Td2m_seus_30.pngnam3km_ref_frzn_seus_30.png
 
I would also like to point out that we have a heavy batch of precip moving into the Charlotte area ... absolutely no model I have seen so far shows any type of heavier precip heading into this area for the whole day so ... definitely an interesting nowcast trend that should be considered and may play a part or factor into the “frozen” threat
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imo32EAFCAD-239D-49BD-BD23-B5810BE5E4AE.png
 
Skeptical of the nam, on some CAD events last year it didn’t do well with ZR and showed to much, the fact that the RGEM shows nothing makes me think the NAM is a about to take a bad L
 
Sleet reported in Erwin RN.
Heard pellets near the entrance of my house. Guess it did snow...
 
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