Can't post any pics but the 12z NAM is showing a freezing rain crush job from RDU westward to Greensboro / just NE of Charlotte. But temps are showing at or just below freezing so the >1" totals would be suspect event with the NAMs setup.
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Lol...this fantasy run would have 1.51" of freezing rain at my location at hour 42 and it would still be coming down.
**one thing I can say; my location is great at getting fantasy winter storms. Now if I could just get a quarter of them I would be doing great.
**one thing I can say; my location is great at getting fantasy winter storms. Now if I could just get a quarter of them I would be doing great.
I got you:
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Looks realistic
Again, I suppose it's possible (..freezing rain). This is an usual setup with the cutoff low and then a with a high pushing down cold/dry air from the north. Of course the plus one inch totals are way overboard; whereas with temps at 30-32, much would run off. So maybe somebody could see a quarter inch, which would meet winter storm criteria. **Interesting
Agreed. Need to look at a sounding and see how much, if any, would be sleet. But again, it's the NAM. Curious to see what the RGEM and Euro and HRRrrRRr look like.
The 12z HRRR at hour 36 is not as crazy as the NAM (not surprising). But it does show our low cutoff to our SE with precip (rain) banding into central NC. At the same time, cold(er) air is pushing southward into our region. I would love to see what it showed going out another 12 hours.
Yikes if this verifies...
Tune in tonight at 9:45 PM!
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
24 hours out, the NAM should be taken seriously, imo. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential for freezing rain can't be ignored.
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.24 hours out, the NAM should be taken seriously, imo. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential for freezing rain can't be ignored.
I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.
snowlover91
Member
Generally I prefer the 3km over the 12km when it comes to frozen precip depictions. Right now the 3km doesn't have any and hasn't for multiple runs now. I think the 12km is out to lunch here since no other meso model supports this. The warm nose aloft is depicted quite well by the 3km and keeps surface temps just a bit too warm in areas where the precip is.
I would also like to point out that we have a heavy batch of precip moving into the Charlotte area ... absolutely no model I have seen so far shows any type of heavier precip heading into this area for the whole day so ... definitely an interesting nowcast trend that should be considered and may play a part or factor into the “frozen” threat
This is going to be a great early season test to see just how reliable, or unreliable, the 12 and 32k can be outside of about 6 hours.. I mean you would think at least a version of the DWARF? would show a similar frozen scenario, but even that’s not the case atm
3km is pretty good with temps but it's not with westward extend of precip, it's usually to stingy. Temps are there in the piedmont I would think. The 12km NAM pushes the precip further west.
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imo
Skeptical of the nam, on some CAD events last year it didn’t do well with ZR and showed to much, the fact that the RGEM shows nothing makes me think the NAM is a about to take a bad L
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snowcool776
Guest
Sleet reported in Erwin RN.
Heard pellets near the entrance of my house. Guess it did snow...
Heard pellets near the entrance of my house. Guess it did snow...
1040 high in SE Canada
Need a meso-high to set up around N. VA. A little deeper into the season with a decent snow pack up north, and this would be a legit threat. The track of the storm is good, and the placement of the high, while not ideal, is of sufficient strength to support a major winter storm, if other background conditions were present. Let's just see if the high can overwork a little bit here....
Latest high res models like the WRF’s now are showing the ice storm ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Please never use the Wrf-ARW2. It's an utter garbage model that always overjuices systems. It's also the only one showing any ice. The standard ARW has barely anything.
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snowcool776
Guest
Thanks FS, thought it was for real. ?
Might as well put some maps and stuff up.
12z WRF ALF2:
0z WRF NMMILF1: Still going on att
12z WRF ALF2:
0z WRF NMMILF1: Still going on att
Don’t forget the RGEM
Did WPC increase ice odds for Raleigh
Probably a perfect combo of cold and dry air being pulled In from the high by the strengthening low off the south east ... perfect ingredients overlap in that section where best lift is
Downeastnc
Member
With the strong high over NE and the bombing low off the coast the models continue to increase the wind field size and strength with gust well into the 40's getting inland RDU to I 95....NAM and Euro both have 50+ mph gust from I-95 east......Hwy 12 just reopened and that looks to be very short lived, if there is a 24-30 hr period of strong north winds this will end up being historically bad, the flooding at the coast is now projected to be 3-6 ft of surge possible in areas still recovering from Dorian.....with gust to near hurricane force possible on the OBX/IBX....really this is the last thing folks on Ocracoke need right now....
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snowcool776
Guest
Hunker down yall. If this low becomes a noreaster, it could bring numerous outages across the east coast.
If HWY 12 just reopened, why not they just move it somewhere else? Dorian, Florence, Matthew, all destroyed the Bonner Bridge.
Can’t wait for the 12km to pull the rug
I anticipate one more NAM'ing to really suck us in and then the 0z will pull the rug, it hurts more like that. The NAM is evil
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NAM is obviously a bit cold biased 
smast16
Member
They are replacing Bonner Bridge now with a newer and bigger bridge, and they are taking a good chunk of 12 and turning it into a Bridge in Rodanthe.
Looks like moisture is a not going as far west this time on 18z NAM vs 12z
smast16
Member
We all knew it was a matter of time.
18z nam with the bullseye over my house. Kinda funny though that everyone is crapping on it but when it nails a warm nose in winter everyone will be saying how it handles the thermal profiles better
Congrats!
True, but in this case, it doesn't look like it's going to nail the surface temps very well. I'd put some trust upstairs but not so much at the surface, especially when it doesn't really have support from anywhere else. The 18z is going to be less robust with the clown maps due to the lack of precip. Maybe 0z brings the heavier stuff back in.