Can't post any pics but the 12z NAM is showing a freezing rain crush job from RDU westward to Greensboro / just NE of Charlotte. But temps are showing at or just below freezing so the >1" totals would be suspect event with the NAMs setup.
Looks realisticI got you:View attachment 26011
Again, I suppose it's possible (..freezing rain). This is an usual setup with the cutoff low and then a with a high pushing down cold/dry air from the north. Of course the plus one inch totals are way overboard; whereas with temps at 30-32, much would run off. So maybe somebody could see a quarter inch, which would meet winter storm criteria. **InterestingI got you:View attachment 26011
Agreed. Need to look at a sounding and see how much, if any, would be sleet. But again, it's the NAM. Curious to see what the RGEM and Euro and HRRrrRRr look like.Again, I suppose it's possible (..freezing rain). This is an usual setup with the cutoff low and then a with a high pushing down cold/dry air from the north. Of course the plus one inch totals are way overboard; whereas with temps at 30-32, much would run off. So maybe somebody could see a quarter inch, which would meet winter storm criteria. **Interesting
The 12z HRRR at hour 36 is not as crazy as the NAM (not surprising). But it does show our low cutoff to our SE with precip (rain) banding into central NC. At the same time, cold(er) air is pushing southward into our region. I would love to see what it showed going out another 12 hours.Agreed. Need to look at a sounding and see how much, if any, would be sleet. But again, it's the NAM. Curious to see what the RGEM and Euro and HRRrrRRr look like.
Tune in tonight at 9:45 PM!The 12z HRRR at hour 36 is not as crazy as the NAM (not surprising). But it does show our low cutoff to our SE with precip (rain) banding into central NC. At the same time, cold(er) air is pushing southward into our region. I would love to see what it showed going out another 12 hours.
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.24 hours out, the NAM should be taken seriously, imo. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential for freezing rain can't be ignored.
It should be, but I'm not sure it can be. Both the GFS and the RGEM show absolutely no frozen anywhere. Now, they could be wrong, and I certainly wouldn't rule out a few sleet pellets or some light glaze somewhere. But one of three things are going to happen here: 1) The NAM is going to be correct, and some areas are going to pick up some decent frozen precipitation; 2) The NAM is going to once again be exposed for as a horrible model; 3) Neither...maybe it's not the NAM's fault. Maybe there's a problem with the algorithms used to generate the frozen precip maps for the NAM.
I have a strong suspicion that it's going to be option number 2.
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imoI would also like to point out that we have a heavy batch of precip moving into the Charlotte area ... absolutely no model I have seen so far shows any type of heavier precip heading into this area for the whole day so ... definitely an interesting nowcast trend that should be considered and may play a part or factor into the “frozen” threat
1040 high in SE CanadaCharlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imoView attachment 26016
Charlotte is at 42/30 right now..where is the cold air going to come from? (I’m not being sarcastic) Here’s the 12k temp profile at the heaviest time of ZR..note the random sub freezing pool in central NC. extremely suspect imoView attachment 26016
1040 high in SE CanadaView attachment 26017