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Wintry Nov 16 wintry weather threat

B

Brick Tamland

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NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

namconus_asnow_seus_17-png.25976
 
Brick Tamland said:
NAM is showing a winter storm threat for central NC. Looks very localized at this moment. Could we have one sneak up on us 48 hours out?

namconus_asnow_seus_17-png.25976
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Do you think that map is accurate? Do you think it's actually showing 3-6" of snow? Did you even consider the other post, maps, discussion that clearly showed this is a very minor icing event at best with no snow? I just don't understand...
 
If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
 
SD said:
If we were 72-96 hours out I'd get a little more excited. Really need the upper low to turn negative a little sooner and maybe expand the precip shield back into the area to have a chance at wintry precip. I think at the very worst right now you might see a few places get a short period of freezing drizzle or a few sleet pellets as the wedge really digs in but that's a low low chance.
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RGEM is really robust with the QPF.
 
Very dry at the surface wet bulb potential in the north west but will moisture hit the surface? My guess it stops at the NC/SC state line with very little hitting the ground around Charlotte north.
 
38 over 23. Screams sleet or ice. However I doubt any moisture hits the surface?
 
Ok wintry chances going up for many now. Georgia and most of Carolinas will “likely” see sleet/rain mix.
 
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air below 10,000 ft is very dry. (See sleet reports breaking out to our south-west per NWS Birmingham).
 
This forecast is for everyone tonight into tomorrow, expect either precip to not hit the ground or SLEET per ground truth to the south-west. Until the air below 10,000 ft warms enough for all rain which will vary on location and precip rates if any.
 
Not November 16th but if you wanna change the dates of thread I expect a lot of sleet reports
 
GSP also added snow tonight for their northern mtns
 
SD said:
Yeah I saw that too bad I can't find soundings
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Would be interesting to see what the 3k NAM showed if it actually got any precip back here.
 
Rain Cold said:
Would be interesting to see what the 3k NAM showed if it actually got any precip back here.
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Yeah just pulled a sounding from the 3k when the 12k has the sleet bomb and its not horrible. At or below freezing from probably 850-surface with a warm nose just above that. Certainly supports the 12k idea of if we get precip during that period it might be frozen
 
IWC said:
Be happy to sell you some...
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SD said:
Yeah just pulled a sounding from the 3k when the 12k has the sleet bomb and its not horrible. At or below freezing from probably 850-surface with a warm nose just above that. Certainly supports the 12k idea of if we get precip during that period it might be frozen
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Well I'd wager the precip does end up more NW then what is being advertised, been a NW trend with Euro and seems to always be the case with coastals. Who knows

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Hey Brick! You are back! @SoutheastRidge and I were finding you!
Anyways, looks like the main idea is going to be temps in the teens. But @SD said that she anticipates a heavy sleet event. Will this mean outages? Or this will fizzle out to be a mainly rain event?
 
snowcool776 said:
Hey Brick! You are back! @SoutheastRidge and I were finding you!
Anyways, looks like the main idea is going to be temps in the teens. But @SD said that she anticipates a heavy sleet event. Will this mean outages? Or this will fizzle out to be a mainly rain event?
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Some huh?
 
snowcool776 said:
Hey Brick! You are back! @SoutheastRidge and I were finding you!
Anyways, looks like the main idea is going to be temps in the teens. But @SD said that she anticipates a heavy sleet event. Will this mean outages? Or this will fizzle out to be a mainly rain event?
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#1 I'm a he
#2 temps aren't going to be in the teens, 34-38 looks more realistic
#3 I'm not expecting heavy sleet even if we did get heavy sleet it wouldn't cause power issues
#4 expect rain and take any frozen as a victory
 
SD said:
#1 I'm a he
#2 temps aren't going to be in the teens
#3 I'm not expecting heavy sleet even if we did get heavy sleet it wouldn't cause power issues
#4 expect rain and take any frozen as a victory
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Ok, My bad...
And what does take any frozen as a victory mean? Freezing rain?
 
SD said:
#1 I'm a he
#2 temps aren't going to be in the teens, 34-38 looks more realistic
#3 I'm not expecting heavy sleet even if we did get heavy sleet it wouldn't cause power issues
#4 expect rain and take any frozen as a victory
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I'm gonna need some clarity

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Yellow returns showing up now wouldn’t be surprised to hear of some pockets of sleet near Matthews then further east into the lower Piedmont
 
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