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Pattern Nippy November

Ugh ice maps should be banned because they never verify even half of what is shown.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Could this lead to a more suppressed wave?
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Yes it's definitely a favorable trend for suppression & keeping around this cooler air mass much longer, both of which are more conducive for wintry weather around the day 9-11 time frame, but not necessarily the case w/ the first disturbance around day 6-7. This latter system actually materializing at all largely hinges on when the southern stream s/w over the SW US finally crawls out from underneath the western US ridge.

Given the large-scale pattern in place, cold air damming or an overrunning type setup would be the favored storm type (if any) for the 2nd system (again barring that it actually occurs in the first place).

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh192_trend (3).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yes it's definitely a favorable trend for suppression & keeping around this cooler air mass much longer, both of which are more conducive for wintry weather around the day 9-11 time frame, but not necessarily the case w/ the first disturbance around day 6-7. This latter system actually materializing at all largely hinges on when the southern stream s/w over the SW US finally crawls out from underneath the western US ridge.

Given the large-scale pattern in place, cold air damming or an overrunning type setup would be the favored storm type (if any) for the 2nd system (again barring that it actually occurs in the first place).

View attachment 25506
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Thanks Man, maybe the CMC was on to something.
 
Well, I see the GFS did a complete 180 last night. We had the Euro showing a winter storm first, only for it to look a little worse, and then the GFS comes along and goes bonkers after it looked worse than the Euro yesterday. A lot of back and forth and we're still 7 days out. But it is crazy even having a potential winter storm to track in November. Hope this is a good sign of things to come.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, I see the GFS did a complete 180 last night. We had the Euro showing a winter storm first, only for it to look a little worse, and then the GFS comes along and goes bonkers after it looked worse than the Euro yesterday. A lot of back and forth and we're still 7 days out. But it is crazy even having a potential winter storm to track in November. Hope this is a good sign of things to come.
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True... but last winter ... our only snow we go to amount anything came mid November 2 half inches ... then rest winter went poof... don’t want repeat...
 
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