Pattern Nippy November

[Rain Cold]

Definitely makes you wonder if this was mid-January would this be a legit wintery threat.

View attachment 25916

Look at the placement of the low and high. Almost ideal for a winter storm here. A 1038 high up there is pretty awesome.

Ordinarily i would say its a few weeks too early but we are getting temps now that would be cold even by January standards.

I tend to agree, actually. Just because it's November doesn't necessarily mean it can't snow, especially if you have this kind of air mass in place. So, in the end, I'm kind of disagreeing with myself lol. I think the difference may be, though, is that it's probably easier to keep a cold air mass in place longer and keep it colder longer in January than in November.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Bitter bitter cold here at work today. Just enough wind to make my face hurt. I give. When’s the warm up?

Cant you put something over your face to keep it warm?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Cant you put something over your face to keep it warm?

Left my ski mask at home. And my coveralls. I didn’t expect it to be this bad. But it really is pretty unbearable

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Left my ski mask at home. And my coveralls. I didn’t expect it to be this bad. But it really is pretty unbearable

Ive found that dealing with the cold is not hard as long as you are dressed properly.

 

[RBR71]

Look at the placement of the low and high. Almost ideal for a winter storm here. A 1038 high up there is pretty awesome.


I tend to agree, actually. Just because it's November doesn't necessarily mean it can't snow, especially if you have this kind of air mass in place. So, in the end, I'm kind of disagreeing with myself lol. I think the difference may be, though, is that it's probably easier to keep a cold air mass in place longer and keep it colder longer in January than in November.

Especially since there isn't a huge snow pack to the north and the cold just hasn't become firmly entrenched up north yet either. Transient shots like this one sure but certainly can't expect this to last more than a day or two this early in the season. There's virtually no snow cover along the east coast all the way up into Canada (except for that small patch around Richmond Lol). I say give it a month, build that snow pack and allow time for the ocean waters off the NE coast to cool some more, give us this same setup then and boom

 

[Rosie]

Ive found that dealing with the cold is not hard as long as you are dressed properly.

And your heat does not die?

 

[GaWx]

Why is it so quiet in here when the most revered index, the -NAO, is showing up quite strongly on the EPS and especially on the GEFS from 11/22 through the ends of the runs?

 

[pcbjr]

Why is it so quiet in here when the most revered index, the -NAO, is showing up quite strongly on the EPS and especially on the GEFS from 11/22 through the ends of the runs?

Because everyone is likely outside in utter astonishment ...

 

[Tarheel1]

The end of the GFS, finishing up November, on a warm is note

 

[pcbjr]

The end of the GFS, finishing up November, on a warm is noteView attachment 25920

Charlie scores though ... LOL

 

[KyloG]

Last 5 runs of the GEFS for week 2. It's out there in fantasy land but it looks so darn good.

 

[Webberweather53]

Definitely makes you wonder if this was mid-January would this be a legit wintery threat.

View attachment 25916

Yes, we would end up with sleet and cold rain as usual

 

[GaWx]

Last 5 runs of the GEFS for week 2. It's out there in fantasy land but it looks so darn good.

View attachment 25921

The most recent run appears to me to have the strongest -NAO.

 

[Rain Cold]

Why is it so quiet in here when the most revered index, the -NAO, is showing up quite strongly on the EPS and especially on the GEFS from 11/22 through the ends of the runs?

Probably because most posters either only look at OP models or don't have access to long range EPS stuff. Just my guess.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Last 5 runs of the GEFS for week 2. It's out there in fantasy land but it looks so darn good.

View attachment 25921

GEFS has been pretty good inside about 280 so far this early winter season

 

[GaWx]

Probably because most posters either only look at OP models or don't have access to long range EPS stuff. Just my guess.

Well, it is more intense on the GEFS as Kylo showed and which is at TT as I assume you know.

Of course, it may not verify but the GEFS -NAOs have been verifying well lately.

 

[Rain Cold]

Well, it is more intense on the GEFS as Kylo showed and which is at TT as I assume you know.

Yep, I do. I am not sure how many folks roll through the ensemble plots though. The proliferation of posts containing operational images makes me think that it's not very many.

Also, as we've seen so many times in bygone years, ensembles frequently tend to show good patterns that either don't come to fruition or end up not producing anything. I think the recent string of overall crappy winters in the face of semi-frequent longer term good pattern predictions may be finally starting to take it's toll, tamping down excitement.

 

[snowcool776]

Is there a chance of sleet on Thanksgiving? I heard that 2 weeks from now, it is snowing.

 

[KyloG]

And the 12z GEFS teleconns

 

[snowcool776]

Now after looking at the models, it seems that GFS is saying warm weather on Black Friday, whilst other models say its going to snow?

 

[KyloG]

NAO forecast trends per GEFS

 

[RBR71]

The end of the GFS, finishing up November, on a warm is noteView attachment 25920

And the 06z finished up on a cool note, that far out flips every 4 hours.... come on man you know that.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NAO forecast trends per GEFS

View attachment 25929

Thanks kylo. That alone is reason for a little optimism

 

[RBR71]

Is there a chance of sleet on Thanksgiving? I heard that 2 weeks from now, it is snowing.

Are you sure the GFS is predicting snow on Thanksgiving?

Now after looking at the models, it seems that GFS is saying warm weather on Black Friday, whilst other models say its going to snow?

No disrespect intended but 2 weeks out is just way too far to pay attention to specific weather at the surface. Pay attention closely to those post about the GEFS and EPS as it relates to pattern recognition (NAO, PNA, etc the 5H maps they share and discuss). This will give you some insight as to what the pattern may look like that far out, but even that isn't close to set in stone but can show the "potential".

 

[snowcool776]

No disrespect intended but 2 weeks out is just way too far to pay attention to specific weather at the surface. Pay attention closely to those post about the GEFS and EPS as it relates to pattern recognition (NAO, PNA, etc the 5H maps they share and discuss). This will give you some insight as to what the pattern may look like that far out, but even that isn't close to set in stone but can show the "potential".

Alrighty then.

 

[whatalife]

And the 12z GEFS teleconns

View attachment 25926View attachment 25927View attachment 25928

NAO forecast trends per GEFS

View attachment 25929

Just hoping this isn’t fools gold.


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[Rain Cold]

Case in point. Let's look at the 6z GEFS. The 12z isn't out yet on TT, but if we look at the 384 snapshot of the image Kylo posted above (the H5 anomaly plot), we can see what looks like an awesome west-based -NAO block in an ideal spot (circled in red). We also see a split flow pattern out in the Pacific and our old friend, the SW trough. We see an area of lower heights in the SW and off the NE coast, with normal heights over most of the central and eastern US.



But now let's look at the actual H5 height map and see what the structure of the NAO and the overall pattern looks like. You can see the PV way up to the NW of the image, leaving stale cold over most of Canada. In fact, as we will see in a moment, it's actually a little warmer than normal there. Split flow brings in cool air, and the likelihood of storminess across the south will probably contribute to normal temps in that area.

But look in eastern Canada and Greenland. While the heights on the anomaly map are above normal, we see no pattern here that is supportive of buckling the flow (as we want to see with a -NAO), forcing colder temps south. Higher heights in that region may technically allow the calculated value to show up as a -NAO, but the resulting pattern does little to help us in any way, other than maybe to help keep the SE ridge from popping and making us warm:



And lastly, the resulting temp anomaly map speaks for itself:



Looks like normal to above normal temps, which, while certainly better than a torch, is nothing to be overly excited about. The main take-aways that I have that may be worth some excitement down the line is the fact that we are seeing a good southern storm track emerge. There is no talk of any drought. Also, we're seeing more promising signs in the Arctic regions than we did last year. Add in the fact that the models have false-started the torch pattern a couple of times, and I think there's enough reason to deposit some excitement and optimism in the bank so that it can be withdrawn later, when the situation better warrants it.

 

[Jon]

GEFS and EPS are worlds apart wrt the NAO for day 10-15. Glancing at tele line graphs can only say so much. For some reason I’m not buying the GEFS beating the euro here.

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[Arcc]

FWIW Pivotal Weather gets the EPS/GEFS maps an hour or so before TT. The 12z GEFS has been out a while.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Case in point. Let's look at the 6z GEFS. The 12z isn't out yet on TT, but if we look at the 384 snapshot of the image Kylo posted above (the H5 anomaly plot), we can see what looks like an awesome west-based -NAO block in an ideal spot (circled in red). We also see a split flow pattern out in the Pacific and our old friend, the SW trough. We see an area of lower heights in the SW and off the NE coast, with normal heights over most of the central and eastern US.

View attachment 25930

But now let's look at the actual H5 height map and see what the structure of the NAO and the overall pattern looks like. You can see the PV way up to the NW of the image, leaving stale cold over most of Canada. In fact, as we will see in a moment, it's actually a little warmer than normal there. Split flow brings in cool air, and the likelihood of storminess across the south will probably contribute to normal temps in that area.

But look in eastern Canada and Greenland. While the heights on the anomaly map are above normal, we see no pattern here that is supportive of buckling the flow (as we want to see with a -NAO), forcing colder temps south. Higher heights in that region may technically allow the calculated value to show up as a -NAO, but the resulting pattern does little to help us in any way, other than maybe to help keep the SE ridge from popping and making us warm:

View attachment 25931

And lastly, the resulting temp anomaly map speaks for itself:

View attachment 25932

Looks like normal to above normal temps, which, while certainly better than a torch, is nothing to be overly excited about. The main take-aways that I have that may be worth some excitement down the line is the fact that we are seeing a good southern storm track emerge. There is no talk of any drought. Also, we're seeing more promising signs in the Arctic regions than we did last year. Add in the fact that the models have false-started the torch pattern a couple of times, and I think there's enough reason to deposit some excitement and optimism in the bank so that it can be withdrawn later, when the situation better warrants it.

Perfect explanation ??

 

[Arcc]

I think anything every 240 hrs is pointless to look at, but the trend is clear within 240 on GEFS or EPS with more blocking across Greenland.

 

[Arcc]

OP Euro back to showing Rex block. It did the same thing with the next two shortwaves on last weeks run.

 

[packfan98]

OP Euro back to showing Rex block. It did the same thing with the next two shortwaves on last weeks run.

 

[Arcc]

If history repeats itself and the ridge builds westward again that cold shot could be another doozy. Euro much more bullish about the -NAO on this run.

 

[Rain Cold]

The D10 Euro is decent. Not a snowstorm pattern or anything. But if we don't have a mechanism to deliver arctic air over here, then this pattern will work to keep us near or slightly below normal temp-wise. -NAO showing up a bit better than on that other map I posted earlier. You can see the ridging near Greenland helping to amplify the big low over eastern Canada. Does that ridge stay/get stronger/develop into a block and trap the low in place? Or does it move out, allowing the low to move out, turning our flow more west to east, instead of NW to SE? I guess time will tell. Got to love the split flow showing up, though. Hope that remains.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

If history repeats itself and the ridge builds westward again that cold shot could be another doozy. Euro much more bullish about the -NAO on this run.

At least we can say NO TORCH!!

 

[Webberweather53]

I definitely wouldn’t immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO

GEFS and EPS are worlds apart wrt the NAO for day 10-15. Glancing at tele line graphs can only say so much. For some reason I’m not buying the GEFS beating the euro here.

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I'm not sure if we should immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO.

Ironically, at this exact same time last year, the EPS completely whiffed on the -NAO that emerged in mid November.

 

[Webberweather53]

I definitely wouldn’t immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO


I'm not sure if we should immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO.

Ironically, at this exact same time last year, the EPS completely whiffed on the -NAO that emerged in mid November.

As some of you will probably recall, a few days after the verification of this EPS forecast last year in my tweet, we ended up seeing a big ice storm over the western piedmont.

 

[GaWx]

Ummmm, wait til the 12Z EPS 11-15 is available on public sites. OMG, the Greenland Blocking is stronger and the E US is much colder than what the prior run had. IF it is right, there will hardly be any warmer than normal days the rest of the month and all but maybe 3 would be colder than normal! And keep in mind that the EPS has been warm biased recently.

**Edit: Now we can start thinking about the chance for one of the coldest Novembers on record.

 

[Jon]

I definitely wouldn’t immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO


I'm not sure if we should immediately throw out the gefs solution even though the eps isn’t anywhere near as enthused with the -NAO.

Ironically, at this exact same time last year, the EPS completely whiffed on the -NAO that emerged in mid November.

I’m no where close to immediately throwing out the solution, just know which side I’m on as of now.... blocking is tough for any NWP so we will see.

12z does look better but still worlds apart. I prefer this look.

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