Pattern Nippy November

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Such a terrible setup for SC. I can’t stress that enough. It’s early November and I’m already having Deja Vu. Or maybe that’s just the PTSD.

 

[Clem282340]

This would be quite the event if it verified.

For Nc and no where else looks like it left out sc

 

[Ollie Williams]

For Nc and no where else looks like it left out sc

I forgot to attach the ZR image, in that case, it would be quite an event for everybody but SC and most of GA

 

[Clem282340]

I forgot to attach the ZR image, in that case, it would be quite an event for everybody but SC and most of GA
View attachment 25489

Seems like sc gets left out the last couple of years

 

[Tarheel1]

Such a terrible setup for SC. I can’t stress that enough. It’s early November and I’m already having Deja Vu. Or maybe that’s just the PTSD.

So gfs went from suppression to blockbuster NC storm in about 3 runs! Best model ever!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

While we like these trends and that NS energy slowing down, we don’t want that to happen to much, WAR starting to make its self known, at this point tho it would just increase the moisture so it’s not a bad thing right now View attachment 25481

It will continue to trend north on incoming runs to look more like Euro/Icon. Here we go get away Look at that orange BLOB sneaking back in??‍ If it’s not the SER it’s the WAR.

 

[Webberweather53]

As much as we talk about how the GFS has a cold bias in the longer term, the parent sfc high that enters the upper midwest around day 5-6 has actually been getting significantly stronger on the GFS (green contour = statistically significant trend at the 99% conf. level)







This makes more sense if you also look at the z500 trend which shows a deepening trough over the upper midwest but also take note of the larger SE US ridge.

The deeper upper midwest trough = lower heights & thus colder air aloft >>> air sinks & sfc pressures rise.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I feel like everything wintery forming along that arctic boundary as it swings through is completely anafrontal stuff aka not real. Where will the low pop is the real question. If last year taught us anything it was that a strong cold push can cause that thing to bloom too late

 

[BufordWX]

The ICON has it absolutely frigid at the end of its run lol.

 

[Snowfan]

I thought the ICON had a warm bias.

The ICON has it absolutely frigid at the end of its run lol.View attachment 25490

 

[SETNwx]

The ICON has it absolutely frigid at the end of its run lol.View attachment 25490

Only 5 Nov days have been recorded in CHA since 1879 with a low below 15. That's getting into goofball extreme land....

 

[BufordWX]

Canada’s trying to bring the goods.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Canada’s trying to bring the goods.View attachment 25492

Yep that’ll work

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Canadian making an attempt at some overrunning after that first system middle of next week

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Canada’s trying to bring the goods.

Big sleet/ice storm for much of N GA. I really have a hard time believing we have a big ice storm this early in the season.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Tarheel1 take it to the bank ??‍

 

[Chattownsnow]

Yep that’ll work View attachment 25493

There’s something wrong with this map. Where’s the GL low?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Yeah CMC just has a ton of WAA from the moist SW flow. Floods the mid levels with warmer air which results in a lot of ice and sleet.

 

[accu35]

The very cold arctic air is coming, so why not a storm.

 

[Jeremy Camp]

Big sleet/ice storm for much of N GA. I really have a hard time believing we have a big ice storm this early in the season.

A repeat of February 2005 when NGA saw that first Freezing Rain & Sleet event.