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Pattern Nippy November

Nam, prob wrong, is interesting on Thursday morning around here. Temps just above freezing with light precipitation arriving.
 
The southern wave and the northern wave come together and produces a positive tilt (almost neutral) trough and of course there will be moisture in the upper levels. Since these two pieces of energy are going to come together sooner, I do think there will be an edge of sleet/freezing rain on Thursday/Friday because cold shallow air will still be at surface after this cold blast.
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currently 45/30 feels like 40. not too warm. Crazy that we're getting this in mid Nov, should be mid60s
 
Euro shows no Torch... I’m starting to believe the SER won’t be around for no more than 2-3 days out of the next 10 and temps would be around average when it is.
 
WxWatch said:
The southern wave and the northern wave come together and produces a positive tilt (almost neutral) trough and of course there will be moisture in the upper levels. Since these two pieces of energy are going to come together sooner, I do think there will be an edge of sleet/freezing rain on Thursday/Friday because cold shallow air will still be at surface after this cold blast.
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Looks like the streams are staying pretty separate. Probably due to the kickers upstream/lack of ridging up north. If that northern system would dive in and interact with the southern one, then we might have something.
 
tennessee storm said:
Not getting out the 20s here West Tennessee...
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Nope, I believe the record coldest high before today was 37 for White House in 1995. Currently 27 degrees as of 2:29pm so that record will be shattered for sure. Also avg low for this time of year is 38 so my high today will most likely be 10 degrees below that. Lol
 
Watching the Euro and trends, I’m not sure we see much warmth at all. Euro is constantly dropping a ULL into the SW causing s/w ridging. As verification approaches, the ULL is farther SW and the ridging over the mid-west has also trended westward. I don’t know what you want tocall it, but that big low gyre/PV north of AK continues to generate big time Aleutian lows that looks to at least continue through hr 240 per the Euro/EPS.
 
Arcc said:
Watching the Euro and trends, I’m not sure we see much warmth at all. Euro is constantly dropping a ULL into the SW causing s/w ridging. As verification approaches, the ULL is farther SW and the ridging over the mid-west has also trended westward. I don’t know what you call it, but that big low gyre north of AK continues to generate big time Aleutian lows that looks to at least continue through hr 240 per the Euro/EPS.
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Wow.. for once we are not moving closer and closer and getting warmer and warmer. If anything models have back all the way down on future warmth for the SE.
Wondering what 12z Eps will show?
 
Arcc said:
Watching the Euro and trends, I’m not sure we see much warmth at all. Euro is constantly dropping a ULL into the SW causing s/w ridging. As verification approaches, the ULL is farther SW and the ridging over the mid-west has also trended westward. I don’t know what you want tocall it, but that big low gyre/PV north of AK continues to generate big time Aleutian lows that looks to at least continue through hr 240 per the Euro/EPS.
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Just like the years where the warm patterns keep winning the cold keeps finding a way so far. I think we have no choice but to moderate later in the month but it's hard to find a torch
 
All the NAMs have zero frozen precip for the Thursday event, and actually start mostly on Friday. Was fun
 
I think a little mix to rain is possible late in the day Thursday for a lot of people. Not sure there be any accumulation though. It be brief


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WxWatch said:
No, the upper level will not support snow. I do think there will be sleet mixing in with the rain though in that area with no accumulations.
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def. no snow for sure, I agree, but I could see some sleet, **if that is right** if temps can cool enough, maybe a little ZR on elevated surfaces briefly.
 
deltadog03 said:
def. no snow for sure, I agree, but I could see some sleet, **if that is right** if temps can cool enough, maybe a little ZR on elevated surfaces briefly.
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The Nam has done well painting the colors in south Texas yesterday. They have a good bit of sleet
 
WxWatch said:
There's def. going to be sleet mixed in with the rain. I also think there's going to be some serious dynamic cooling. Some may actually be in for a surprise.
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November around 2 lol. Ready for winter
 
Taking a look at the 3KM 0Z NAM, as the disturbance pushes off to the east, the 850mb temps come down a bit on the back side. Some across AL may see some flurries/snow showers late Thursday evening/Fri AM if the moisture is still around. We'll need to watch this carefully.
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Seems like 0z models so far has it coming little more NW. Honestly, if this can speed up just by a few hours then alot on here will see something
 
Ollie Williams said:
Unless It’s snow or major ZR, I could care less about this system even with non-rain p-types over mby. IMO, rain falling with .001 inches of ice is not that exciting. Nice setup for January though. Onto the next storm.
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Though I do find it Ironic that the GFS has the exact opposite problem for another setup around hr 160. Less CAD, better look at H5. Unless we are seeing substantial model snow, I’m not holding my breath until maybe December.
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