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Pattern Nippy November

Down to 25 around midnight, clouds rolled in and up to 32 now
 
GaWx said:
Folks, don't look at the 0Z EPS 11-15. Instead, I suggest shut eye ASAP. You can see it after you wake up. Night night.
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Hasn't the EPS/ECMWF had a warm bias lately? Thought I heard some of y'all talking bout that.
 
Well lookee here
WK34temp.gif
 
Well...I still think we're too early in on the season to know if the winter's going to be any good or not. But I really like that the -NAO is trying to show up and hang around this month. That in and of itself is different than last year around this time. I wonder if it'll do it when it really matters though in the next few months. I really like what I see below on the new GEFS. -NAO, western ridge, PV trapped to SE Canada, and a split flow.

The problem is right after this, it wants to shift the trough out west again....like last winter. I'll be looking in the next few weeks to see if that materializes or not. Does the below even come about? We'll see. Even if it does, do we keep the eastern trough afterward, or do we get ridgy again in the east going into December? If we can see the blocky/eastern trough pattern persist into December I'll feel pretty good about the upcoming winter. It seems that winter patterns wash rinse and repeat.

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I really think we are in good shape right now. When is the last time we have been this cold in November? We already had one winter storm threat the first half of this month. I didn't see anything here, but some folks in the SE have already seen snow. I think it's all setting up nicely for a good winter with plenty of winter storm chances. The rest of this month looks cold to seasonable at most. Even if we warm up in December, there is still plenty of time for the pendulum to swing back for January and February, when we usually have the best chance for winter storms anyway.
 
GaWx said:
Folks, don't look at the 0Z EPS 11-15. Instead, I suggest shut eye ASAP. You can see it after you wake up. Night night.
Click to expand...
Yeah a little flip from earlier runs but nothing too bad and it's out there so hopefully a hiccup and not a trend. Plus I'm not ready for these frigid temps, already I'm ready for a break Lol
 
Talk about a wild swing in soil temps compared to a few weeks ago. Too bad they will warm into December. 08E732C0-571C-42FF-8F31-DD8A508F701A.jpeg
 
^^going along with the above NAM freezing rain potential, there will be a big push of very cold/dry air into the region at that time period. The question is can we get the precip to push far enough westward. RAH last night thought the I-95 corridor would be the cutoff. Probably will still be but something to keep an eye on.
 
If we compared both GEFS and The EPS we look to have around a normal temp November with an active storm track end of the month. That is a huge win for us in the southeast. Really need to watch the PV in the near future. GEFS looks like the end of the run it may be swinging further on our side.


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Meteorologist1999 said:
12z Gfs shows NO RIDGE building in east for the whole run. Everytime the ridge try’s to build cold air work it’s way back in.
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Would be nice if this winter is the opposite of what we see so often, which is the models showing the ridge trying to break down in the long range and colder air, only for it not to materialize.
 
Good news is, the LR GFS continues to generally maintain near or below normal temps through most of the next 2 weeks. Where we're going to need some work done is displayed in the following images (240, 300, and 384, respectively). The main PV is way over yonder. We don't need it hanging out over there for weeks/months on end.

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Still plenty of green colors showing up over the south, which is good. A stout SE ridge with a PV way over yonder might be bad. Also, the pattern looks pretty active, which is also good.
 
GaWx said:
Folks, don't look at the 0Z EPS 11-15. Instead, I suggest shut eye ASAP. You can see it after you wake up. Night night.
Click to expand...

After looking at the beautiful 12Z GEFS, never mind the 0Z EPS as I think it was too warm (warm as in near normal not a torch by any means). Other than about a 36 hour period of near normal 11/21-2, the rest of the 12Z GEFS is colder than normal, which takes us through the rest of the month thanks largely to a strong and longlasting -NAO! Based on the GEFS doing well recently with the NAO despite its cold bias, there may soon be talk about the chance for November of 2019 to be one of the coldest Novembers on record. In the meantime, I expect the 12Z EPS to correct colder from a likely too warm 0Z run. And yes as was asked, it has had a warm bias recently just like the GEFS has been too cold overall.
 
Rain Cold said:
Good news is, the LR GFS continues to generally maintain near or below normal temps through most of the next 2 weeks. Where we're going to need some work done is displayed in the following images (240, 300, and 384, respectively). The main PV is way over yonder. We don't need it hanging out over there for weeks/months on end.

View attachment 25970

View attachment 25971

View attachment 25972

Still plenty of green colors showing up over the south, which is good. A stout SE ridge with a PV way over yonder might be bad. Also, the pattern looks pretty active, which is also good.
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I know this is what we all want for the PV to move more on our side. However, I can’t recall we had a timeframe of more then 30 days before it begin switching back to the other side (our side). To my knowledge a -NAO doesn’t really help our chances with a cold outbreak correct?


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CADEffect said:
I know this is what we all want for the PV to move more on our side. However, I can’t recall we had a timeframe of more then 30 days before it begin switching back to the other side (our side). To my knowledge a -NAO doesn’t really help our chances with a cold outbreak correct?


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The -NAO domain is pretty small, compared to the whole NH. There are a lot of misconceptions floating around about the NAO. People hear -NAO and just sort of assume that it means cold and snow and stuff. Not saying you do that, but you can just read all the posts during any given winter, fawning all over the NAO, and you can tell how important it is in the minds of the general weatherboard poster. I do it too.

The deal is, the -NAO can matter or not matter all that much. It really depends on quite a few things. It matters how negative it is. It matters as to what shape it is/how it's configured. Whether or not it's east-based or west-based matters. Is it a temporary ridge or is it a more stable ridge...or even a block? Where is the block located? All of this matters.

An ideal -NAO suppresses and slows the flow. It helps storms both amplify and stay farther south. Suppressing the flow south, keeps colder air farther south. So, in a sense, an ideal -NAO is really good. However, something else is important: What kind of air is being suppressed south? Very cold arctic air? Or seasonal air? Or mild Pacific air? Those things are driven from outside of the NAO domain.

In the end, the NAO only influences what is available for it to influence. If the PV is way over in Siberia, where it can stay for a long time, then even an ideal -NAO may serve only to eliminate torching as opposed to create a stable, cold pattern. This is why I like to look at the H5 height maps. That gives me a good idea of where key features are, how they're configured, and what the over all flow pattern looks like.

What we are going to want to see is the PV find it's way over to our side of the hemisphere. Things like a -EPO can facilitate cross-polar flow and help that process take place. We will want to see more than just a -NAO transpire in order to establish a cold and potentially snowy pattern for the eastern and southeastern US.

The key take-away for me is that if the atmosphere has a recurring tendency for supporting a true -NAO this year, then that is different from many previous years. And it says to me that when a cold regime sets up on our side of the globe, the chances of that cold being directed south, and in a more sustained fashion, go up significantly. Then it just becomes a matter of timing with respect to storm chances. In that event, a -NAO would effectively open the window wider and keep it open longer, which we need all the help we can get here in the SE.

I know that's a TLDR post, but it's lunch time, and it's too cold to go for a walk. Hopefully, like Larry said, the EPS will confirm. And hopefully, the PV doesn't spend all of December in Russia. I don't think it will.
 
GaWx said:
After looking at the beautiful 12Z GEFS, never mind the 0Z EPS as I think it was too warm (warm as in near normal not a torch by any means). Other than about a 36 hour period of near normal 11/21-2, the rest of the 12Z GEFS is colder than normal, which takes us through the rest of the month thanks largely to a strong and longlasting -NAO! Based on the GEFS doing well recently with the NAO despite its cold bias, there may soon be talk about the chance for November of 2019 to be one of the coldest Novembers on record. In the meantime, I expect the 12Z EPS to correct colder from a likely too warm 0Z run. And yes as was asked, it has had a warm bias recently just like the GEFS has been too cold overall.
Click to expand...

The bigger deal for me is the tendency to strengthen the western ridge with the big Aleutian low. Gotta love that if it becomes a theme this winter.
 
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