Post the GEFS ... the snow chances all of it we want it alll
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
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Hmm, ewww 
accu35
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Trash it, it's the 18zzzzzz
You would pick something past hour 350 lmao
accu35
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That's the 18z
Plus, I prefer my transient ridge to extend out of Canada and not out of the Atlantic. And as far as the big trough in the west, we’ll worry about that later?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Why love a model not showing a warm up, that has a known cold bias?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Too bad we are losing the really cold air, that Friday/Saturday storm is looking very juiced now @ 6z!! Especially over Carolinas! Just first of many cold rains to come!
BHS1975
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Storm5
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Smashing 100 year plus record lows across the southeast this am
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
pcbjr
Member
Really? We had close calls with coastal's in November last year? Good grief guys it's only mid November for Pete's sake, I mean if it were mid Jan and we were missing like this sure but mid November??
Storm5
Member
This. We aren’t even in the good season yet and people are bitching
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The day 10 evolution on the GEFS has really trending nicely. With the pacific modeled pattern still not a cold pattern but a block and low heights off the east coast is always a welcome site.
I gotta say something does seem different as we get closer to winter this year, the "torch" keeps getting beat back, models trending nicer, maybe just maybe this really is the SE's year.
smast16
Member
I really want to believe this is the case. But after getting burnt last year with that "Big Cool down" that started showing up on the models last year in December, and watching it keep getting pushed back, its hard to believe.
But then again, i am a weenie, so maybe this year can be the inverse of last year?
Ethan80963!
Member
NAM seems to have brought temps down a little more now showing more frozen precip in the Northern Upstate and Western NC so far. fwiw
Remember last months models and our humbled national Mets all predicted a warm winter. For the se to east coast. However, watching the models and storm tracks as well as the temps the past three weeks all seem to be pointing in the other direction away from +3 AN season around here.
I do not like seasonal forecast as I can tell it’s only for people that don’t understand patterns and climate. The best we can do is 340hrs out. We know the ENSO neutral state has done well in our area in the past and a warmer Indian Ocean helps a modoki all this can change unexpectedly. Pattern can change, but we have the past several weeks do go on and 340hrs ahead and all look good for this winter. Keep it up Mother Nature. I love busy winters.
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SnowNiner
Member
At this point I don't think we can tell anything honestly. December will more clearly tell the tale IMO. November doesn't do anything for me. But if we can get a more blocky pattern to persist mid to late into December, then I think you can make an argument that we've found the pattern for the winter.
I'm currently hopeful but still very skeptical.
I'm currently hopeful but still very skeptical.
NCSNOW
Member
Ponder This:
Boone broke the all time record low this morning set back in 1950: 1950 had the Historic App Crusher that November around Turkey day.
One of the most damaging and meteorologically unique winter storms to strike the eastern United States occurred on Thanksgiving weekend 1950. After it was over, as much as 57 inches of snow blanketed the central Appalachians (with locally up to 62 inches at Coburn Creek, WV) and one of the most widespread and damaging wind events ever recorded over the Northeastern U.S. made the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 the costliest storm on record up until that time. East Kentucky wasn’t spared as record setting cold combined with over a foot of snow for many areas.
Timeline
The precursor to the storm was the passage of an arctic cold front late on the 23rd into the 24th. The front passed through eastern Kentucky around midnight and the change in airmass was dramatic. Temperatures plunged from the 40s and 50s just ahead of the front to the teens just behind it. A thin but heavy band of snow accompanied the dramatic temperature drop behind the front with as much as 7 inches falling across southeast Kentucky on the morning of the 24th.
The record setting arctic airmass behind the front sent temperatures to all-time monthly lows across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Chicago dropped to -2ºF on the 24th equaling their all-time monthly low, and a day later Louisville (-1ºF), Lexington (-3ºF) and Bowling Green (-7ºF) all recorded record lows for the month. Temperatures across eastern Kentucky by the morning of the 25th were in the single digits and teens, and still dropping.
Low pressure quickly developed on the arctic front over the Carolinas on the 25th. The low tracked northwestward into Ohio by midday on the 26th with a shield of heavy snow expanding back to the northwest as it did so. The storm slowly wound down as it spun in place over Lake Erie on the 27th and 28th before it finally weakened and exited into Canada on the 29th and 30th.
Boone broke the all time record low this morning set back in 1950: 1950 had the Historic App Crusher that November around Turkey day.
One of the most damaging and meteorologically unique winter storms to strike the eastern United States occurred on Thanksgiving weekend 1950. After it was over, as much as 57 inches of snow blanketed the central Appalachians (with locally up to 62 inches at Coburn Creek, WV) and one of the most widespread and damaging wind events ever recorded over the Northeastern U.S. made the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 the costliest storm on record up until that time. East Kentucky wasn’t spared as record setting cold combined with over a foot of snow for many areas.
Timeline
The precursor to the storm was the passage of an arctic cold front late on the 23rd into the 24th. The front passed through eastern Kentucky around midnight and the change in airmass was dramatic. Temperatures plunged from the 40s and 50s just ahead of the front to the teens just behind it. A thin but heavy band of snow accompanied the dramatic temperature drop behind the front with as much as 7 inches falling across southeast Kentucky on the morning of the 24th.
The record setting arctic airmass behind the front sent temperatures to all-time monthly lows across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Chicago dropped to -2ºF on the 24th equaling their all-time monthly low, and a day later Louisville (-1ºF), Lexington (-3ºF) and Bowling Green (-7ºF) all recorded record lows for the month. Temperatures across eastern Kentucky by the morning of the 25th were in the single digits and teens, and still dropping.
Low pressure quickly developed on the arctic front over the Carolinas on the 25th. The low tracked northwestward into Ohio by midday on the 26th with a shield of heavy snow expanding back to the northwest as it did so. The storm slowly wound down as it spun in place over Lake Erie on the 27th and 28th before it finally weakened and exited into Canada on the 29th and 30th.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last several NINO Decembers that weren't torches in NC ended up producing a decent event east of the mountains, I think we'll eventually get score something substantial before the month is over if we don't end up crazy mild.
Here's a post from Bob Chill from the Mid-Atlantic forum. He's one of the good guys, and I'd urge folks to read this, as it is quite applicable, no matter what forum you frequent. I took the liberty of highlighting what I felt were the most important parts.:
"I said this in a different reply somewhere but the only reason I took a break is the board became the opposite of fun for me. Hopefully this year doesn't turn into a whine and cheese dumpster fire again. Nobody wants to read that crap 24/7. This board isn't supposed to be therapy for unstable people who can't handle reality. It's supposed to be a place where we discuss weather objectively for better or worse. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with our climo as much as anyone else at times and I vent and poke fun at futility too but I don't feel the need to make sure every single person hears about it every 5 minutes for 100 straight days.
If there's one piece of advice that every single weenie needs to think about it's don't get invested in any snow event until it's inside of 72 hours and even that is often pushing it. 95% of our events aren't resolved (or even real) until we get into the 3 day or less range. A d10 fantasy op threat isn't a threat. It's a random idea that there may be a threat. The subtle nuances that go into us actually getting snowfall can drastically change the outcome nearly every single time. If you're going to freak out with every failed event, at least wait until it's a legit rug pull before freaking out. IMO- legit rug pulls don't even start happening until inside of 72 hours but that's just me."
[RC Note: I promise it will be a short winter for folks who consistently gripe or are sarcastic in this thread. The term "read-only" will become very familiar. I enjoy some good sarcasm and cynicism as much as the next guy, but it should NOT be a constant theme of one's posting style in this (or other non-banter) threads. Thank you.]
"I said this in a different reply somewhere but the only reason I took a break is the board became the opposite of fun for me. Hopefully this year doesn't turn into a whine and cheese dumpster fire again. Nobody wants to read that crap 24/7. This board isn't supposed to be therapy for unstable people who can't handle reality. It's supposed to be a place where we discuss weather objectively for better or worse. Don't get me wrong, I get annoyed with our climo as much as anyone else at times and I vent and poke fun at futility too but I don't feel the need to make sure every single person hears about it every 5 minutes for 100 straight days.
If there's one piece of advice that every single weenie needs to think about it's don't get invested in any snow event until it's inside of 72 hours and even that is often pushing it. 95% of our events aren't resolved (or even real) until we get into the 3 day or less range. A d10 fantasy op threat isn't a threat. It's a random idea that there may be a threat. The subtle nuances that go into us actually getting snowfall can drastically change the outcome nearly every single time. If you're going to freak out with every failed event, at least wait until it's a legit rug pull before freaking out. IMO- legit rug pulls don't even start happening until inside of 72 hours but that's just me."
[RC Note: I promise it will be a short winter for folks who consistently gripe or are sarcastic in this thread. The term "read-only" will become very familiar. I enjoy some good sarcasm and cynicism as much as the next guy, but it should NOT be a constant theme of one's posting style in this (or other non-banter) threads. Thank you.]
NCSNOW
Member
More Info from the Turkey Day App crusher Storm:
In Alabama, all-time record lows for November were set at Birmingham 5 °F (−15 °C), Mobile 22 °F (−6 °C), and Montgomery 13 °F (−11 °C). Across Florida, all-time record lows for November were set at Apalachicola (24˚F), Pensacola (22˚F), and Jacksonville (23˚F). Within Georgia, all-time record lows for November were set at Atlanta (3˚F), Columbus (10˚F), Augusta (11˚F), and Savannah (15˚F).
All-time record lows for November were set at Asheville 1 °F (−17 °C) and Wilmington 16 °F (−9 °C).
All-time record lows for November were set at Charleston (17˚F) and Greenville (11˚F).
In Alabama, all-time record lows for November were set at Birmingham 5 °F (−15 °C), Mobile 22 °F (−6 °C), and Montgomery 13 °F (−11 °C). Across Florida, all-time record lows for November were set at Apalachicola (24˚F), Pensacola (22˚F), and Jacksonville (23˚F). Within Georgia, all-time record lows for November were set at Atlanta (3˚F), Columbus (10˚F), Augusta (11˚F), and Savannah (15˚F).
All-time record lows for November were set at Asheville 1 °F (−17 °C) and Wilmington 16 °F (−9 °C).
All-time record lows for November were set at Charleston (17˚F) and Greenville (11˚F).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Models have clearly been trending away from any long lasting torch for late month.
Meanwhile, first freeze/30 low at KSAV this morning! A very early freeze. We’ll be very close to a record low high today as it appears now. Will be fun to follow.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wonder if this year we will be expecting a massive warmup and it'll never come, similar to how we've expected massive cooldowns that never verifies.
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I remember 2009-2010 was like that. We kept expecting the pattern to flip to warm but somehow the blocking just kept reinforcing cold shots.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We did eventually warm up though but it wasn’t until January, then right before the month came to a close, all hell broke loose, starting with a big storm on January 29-30th
packfan98
Moderator
Do not start a thread for this. You need to take a break from starting threads for a good long while.
FWIW WPC bumped up hatch area 10-20% freezing rain for all of western NC mountains now
Man what I would give to have a low cutting across the panhandle with that temp profile..one day
Yeah, DEC will be interesting....just look at how violent the flip was in 2014 weak nino. Nov was really cold, as we are now, simliar pattern, and then it was fairly warm in the conus to say the least. If I was a betting man I would keep my money in my pocket for Dec, but if anything I would bet AN.
Growing concerned cloud cover grows early Thursday before lunch while it’s in the low 20s...may not warm enough for all rain.
What a near perfect track for a major snowstorm. Too bad it's a month or so too early. We can only hope we get some of these tracks in the heart of winter. Dee to the Tee thinks there's a reason to be optimistic about that. Don't know if you saw the 3k NAM or not (12z), but it really places our area underneath the best forcing and rings out over 2" QPF in spots.
Definitely makes you wonder if this was mid-January would this be a legit wintery threat.
Ordinarily i would say its a few weeks too early but we are getting temps now that would be cold even by January standards.
Bitter bitter cold here at work today. Just enough wind to make my face hurt. I give. When’s the warm up?