Hope we get some nice megafrosts this month.
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
I am just ready for 60-70 degree days with a little wind and no humidity and of course severe weather season. Let winter 20-21 be put in the ground somewhere. Looks like we will likely be dealing with an entire EC Ridge in the future so hopefully that actually materializes.
From Maxar: significant cold bias Euro and GFS ens lately of ~3-4 F in ATL and DFW in the 1-5 day forecast
“Models Carrying Cold Biases Of Late
The 15-Day forecast totals 296 GWHDDs, which is near the 0z GFS EN. However, the 0z Euro EN is largely colder, projecting the period to 322 GWHDDs (~26 GWHDDs higher than the forecast). Our forecast is warmer than the Euro EN due to the model’s large cold biases since the peak of the Arctic blast in mid-February. A few of the average temperatures biases for the 1-5 Day period are displayed in the table on left. As an example, yesterday’s low in Chicago was 24°, which compared to 23° from the GFS EN and 15° from the Euro EN. In New York-LGA, the low temperature yesterday was 33°, which compared to projections of 23° from both the GFS and Euro ensembles. It is worth noting that even the GFS EN has been too cold more often than not of late.”
“Models Carrying Cold Biases Of Late
The 15-Day forecast totals 296 GWHDDs, which is near the 0z GFS EN. However, the 0z Euro EN is largely colder, projecting the period to 322 GWHDDs (~26 GWHDDs higher than the forecast). Our forecast is warmer than the Euro EN due to the model’s large cold biases since the peak of the Arctic blast in mid-February. A few of the average temperatures biases for the 1-5 Day period are displayed in the table on left. As an example, yesterday’s low in Chicago was 24°, which compared to 23° from the GFS EN and 15° from the Euro EN. In New York-LGA, the low temperature yesterday was 33°, which compared to projections of 23° from both the GFS and Euro ensembles. It is worth noting that even the GFS EN has been too cold more often than not of late.”
The next few mornings are candidates if we can keep the clouds away
????
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Like I said earlier, I'd wait at least another 3-4 cycles before giving up on this threat this weekend. This is simply too close to call 4-5 days out on the GFS
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
All it's really gonna take to go from harmless low that goes OTS vs a coastal bomb turns the corner is for this s/w over Michigan to dig into Wisconsin & Illinois and for our upper low to slow down just a smidge >> earlier phasing, sfc low intensifies & lifts NW sooner.
We probably won't get these details refined for another 48 hours or so.
We probably won't get these details refined for another 48 hours or so.
Jessy89
Member
My call here is I think snow falling is possible in NE Georgia upstate Sc and western NC. As I said yesterday get moisture in here before 7am 3am to 7am I could see snow falling in those areas north of 85. Accumulation would be hard but if it falls heavy enough a light accumulation can’t be ruled out. Especially in the mountains. This comes down to timing and if we get the moisture far enough NW.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the 12z GFS parallel is trying to do exactly this & the sfc low is knocking on our doorstep. A few subtle NW shifts from the 12z GFS para and snow will start breaking out in the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
How cold does the 12Z GFS think the air will be in 2 days in NW Canada from the airmass that will lead to a colder E US in a few days? Check out the highs in the -30s F (purple)(could of course be overdone due to cold bias but still this is impressive):
It actually had a very light amount on the far NW edge of precip down in SENC.... I find it hard to believe this doesn't trend NW some over the coming days. I'm in for one last hoorah Lol
That .1 is epic talk about localized
Congrats @Rain Cold
Interesting trend with the S/S wave for areas back in WNC on the para, a little slower wave that had a slightly better tilt
LovingGulfLows
Member
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Longed believed models are underestimating the cold air from the trough.
GFS carries 60s further north than the 12k, also may be 1-2F low for some areas since there's still a little heating left after 18zAnd the 12k for Thursday
Smells like last ThursdayGFS carries 60s further north than the 12k, also may be 1-2F low for some areas since there's still a little heating left after 18z
lexxnchloe
Member
Its a good thing im ready.
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Downeastnc
Member
Will be sad and hilarious for the NW trend to not happen when we actually need it too versus every other time when it screws us....
What really sucks is this could easily turn into something special....especially for folks in the eastern half of NC.....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm honestly just trying to say it's way too early for any sentiment like this, we got a long ways to go w/ this one.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Anytime you see multiple-several waves interacting between different branches of the jet like this, you should almost always assume forecast confidence is gonna be much lower than usual as their interactions cause larger than usual non-linear growth in forecast errors & thus larger uncertainties that rapidly grow upsacle and propagate forward in time.
Today's NWP models are generally undispersed (i.e. there is usually too little spread between & amongst ensemble members) to handle situations like this and you'll rarely get a full, legitimate suite of forecast outcomes. It's the kind of situation you should immediately recognize as a point of contention whether you're a meteorologist, a student, or interested hobbyist.
Today's NWP models are generally undispersed (i.e. there is usually too little spread between & amongst ensemble members) to handle situations like this and you'll rarely get a full, legitimate suite of forecast outcomes. It's the kind of situation you should immediately recognize as a point of contention whether you're a meteorologist, a student, or interested hobbyist.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Sleeting in Central Georgia !
lexxnchloe
Member
Its good to take a nap. congrats
Cold bias GEM is all in on warmth after the cool shot, I’m all in
A lot of the models bringing the cold hammer back down after the brief warmup the models are showing ... well at least it’ll be nice while it’s here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z CMC is the worst looking pattern of all the models for this weekend and has our polar jet vort max going over Lake Ontario. Knowing how bad this model often is in the medium range, it gives me some hope that the extremely suppressed/flat camp is going to be more wrong here. ?
dsaur
Member
Well, the 0 line is closer to me, and the rain underneath is just as close, probably closer, I think I could see some onset sleet late week...at least, lol My low this winter was in the 20's. That's so pitiful, I need some winter joy, lol. I realize the moles release a lot of methane with their experiments, but this personal climate change thing going on over me, has to stop.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
It's been sleeting in LaGrange so maybe you will get some too ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol. Please verify so the bugs and weeds die.
