Hope we get some nice megafrosts this month.
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
I am just ready for 60-70 degree days with a little wind and no humidity and of course severe weather season. Let winter 20-21 be put in the ground somewhere. Looks like we will likely be dealing with an entire EC Ridge in the future so hopefully that actually materializes.
From Maxar: significant cold bias Euro and GFS ens lately of ~3-4 F in ATL and DFW in the 1-5 day forecast
“Models Carrying Cold Biases Of Late
The 15-Day forecast totals 296 GWHDDs, which is near the 0z GFS EN. However, the 0z Euro EN is largely colder, projecting the period to 322 GWHDDs (~26 GWHDDs higher than the forecast). Our forecast is warmer than the Euro EN due to the model’s large cold biases since the peak of the Arctic blast in mid-February. A few of the average temperatures biases for the 1-5 Day period are displayed in the table on left. As an example, yesterday’s low in Chicago was 24°, which compared to 23° from the GFS EN and 15° from the Euro EN. In New York-LGA, the low temperature yesterday was 33°, which compared to projections of 23° from both the GFS and Euro ensembles. It is worth noting that even the GFS EN has been too cold more often than not of late.”
“Models Carrying Cold Biases Of Late
The 15-Day forecast totals 296 GWHDDs, which is near the 0z GFS EN. However, the 0z Euro EN is largely colder, projecting the period to 322 GWHDDs (~26 GWHDDs higher than the forecast). Our forecast is warmer than the Euro EN due to the model’s large cold biases since the peak of the Arctic blast in mid-February. A few of the average temperatures biases for the 1-5 Day period are displayed in the table on left. As an example, yesterday’s low in Chicago was 24°, which compared to 23° from the GFS EN and 15° from the Euro EN. In New York-LGA, the low temperature yesterday was 33°, which compared to projections of 23° from both the GFS and Euro ensembles. It is worth noting that even the GFS EN has been too cold more often than not of late.”
The next few mornings are candidates if we can keep the clouds away
????
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Like I said earlier, I'd wait at least another 3-4 cycles before giving up on this threat this weekend. This is simply too close to call 4-5 days out on the GFS
?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
All it's really gonna take to go from harmless low that goes OTS vs a coastal bomb turns the corner is for this s/w over Michigan to dig into Wisconsin & Illinois and for our upper low to slow down just a smidge >> earlier phasing, sfc low intensifies & lifts NW sooner.
We probably won't get these details refined for another 48 hours or so.
We probably won't get these details refined for another 48 hours or so.
Jessy89
Member
My call here is I think snow falling is possible in NE Georgia upstate Sc and western NC. As I said yesterday get moisture in here before 7am 3am to 7am I could see snow falling in those areas north of 85. Accumulation would be hard but if it falls heavy enough a light accumulation can’t be ruled out. Especially in the mountains. This comes down to timing and if we get the moisture far enough NW.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, the 12z GFS parallel is trying to do exactly this & the sfc low is knocking on our doorstep. A few subtle NW shifts from the 12z GFS para and snow will start breaking out in the coastal plain of the Carolinas.
How cold does the 12Z GFS think the air will be in 2 days in NW Canada from the airmass that will lead to a colder E US in a few days? Check out the highs in the -30s F (purple)(could of course be overdone due to cold bias but still this is impressive):
It actually had a very light amount on the far NW edge of precip down in SENC.... I find it hard to believe this doesn't trend NW some over the coming days. I'm in for one last hoorah Lol
That .1 is epic talk about localized
Congrats @Rain Cold
