Pattern Muddy March 2021

[GaWx]

No wintry precip but Tony ( @dsaur ) gets his freeze back for 3/7.

Make that he gets both freezes back, 3/7-8.

 

[Webberweather53]

6z Euro 500mb vort. We need that little appendage of vorticity over Lake Superior & northern Michigan to dig SW more towards Wisconsin or Illinois at this frame, very doable trend even this far out.

 

[LickWx]

What is goin on lol. I go to bed with wedensday forecast as cold miserably and rainy then I wake up and it’s got a high of 61 forecast. Huh?!

 

[Webberweather53]

What is goin on lol. I go to bed with wedensday forecast as cold miserably and rainy then I wake up and it’s got a high of 61 forecast. Huh?!

No rain being forecast, less cloudy and less precip falling out of the sky to cool sfc temps down.

 

[jackendrickwx]

What is goin on lol. I go to bed with wedensday forecast as cold miserably and rainy then I wake up and it’s got a high of 61 forecast. Huh?!

Wed/Thu have been trending warmer a little bit at a time

 

[Webberweather53]

Hoping this rain stays entirely to my south, riding the edge here w/ about a quarter inch forecast.

 

[SD]

What is goin on lol. I go to bed with wedensday forecast as cold miserably and rainy then I wake up and it’s got a high of 61 forecast. Huh?!

A south trend that's turning into a north trend

 

[LickWx]

A south trend that's turning into a north trendView attachment 77480

Forecast bust coming .

 

[SD]

Forecast bust coming .

Yeah not an ideal situation to have to forecast from I40 south

 

[Webberweather53]

Boy, I sure hope the NAM is on crack, but it's hard not to get nervous about heavier precip here when you see it's being mostly driven by warm advection.

 

[jackendrickwx]

A south trend that's turning into a north trendView attachment 77480

This is laughable

 

[Webberweather53]

Boy, I sure hope the NAM is on crack, but it's hard not to get nervous about heavier precip here when you see it's being mostly driven by warm advection.

View attachment 77482

View attachment 77481

Did I also forget to mention it gets down to 36°F here in Fayetteville during the height of the precip?

Smh

 

[SD]

Hoping this rain stays entirely to my south, riding the edge here w/ about a quarter inch forecast.

View attachment 77479

That's a tough forecast on the northern edge.

 

[SD]

Did I also forget to mention it gets down to 36°F here in Fayetteville during the height of the precip?

Smh

View attachment 77483

Progress that it's not the coldest of rain anymore?

 

[Webberweather53]

That's a tough forecast on the northern edge.

Absolutely, 12z runs will be telling if the rebound north trend is legit or not, should find out within the next hour & a half or so starting w/ 12z NAM

 

[Webberweather53]

Progress that it's not the coldest of rain anymore?

Oh, it's actually been trending colder, we were 39F on the last run, 36F this run.

33 and rain on the 12z?

 

[SD]

Oh, it's actually been trending colder, we were 39F on the last run, 36F this run.

33 and rain on the 12z?

I'm really hoping for another 32.3 and rain. Those are my favorite

 

[Webberweather53]

The 12z HRRR is very far to the south ?

 

[jackendrickwx]

GSP is forecasting 66 here Thursday, which from what I can see is above almost all guidance (if not all). Excerpt from this AM's disco

A dry day is in store Thu with max temps reaching well abv
normal, esp east of the mtns, as deep subs develops overhead and
combines with a w/ly downslope warming component. With mostly clear
skies and little wind, the overnight periods will see mins drop to
normal levels or a little below each night.

edit: sorry, not tomorrow, thursday

 

[Webberweather53]

12z NAM looks further south w/ tomorrow's system so far ?