This is a fallacy, I got down in the teens a few times this winter, down to 13 one night and was bitten by a mosquito Sunday afternoon. Nothing works like it used to
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cad Wedge NC
Member
One of these days, your wish-casting will come true. Hopefully it's not until June!
I mean I was right about that warm up last week so that wasn’t really wishcasting, but it was short lived, which I was sorta hoping it wasn’t (sorta wishcasting), hopefully we get alot of average-10 AN days in April, nothing to crazy
Woke up this morning to a cold rain. Temperatures have been steady around 46 so far today. Rain is basically done now, after picking up about 3/4 of an inch.
its still 46F with full cloud deck. Not sure 52F per GSP is happening
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So far thru 48 hr, I'm liking the changes vs yesterday's 12z Euro w/ taller Rockies & western Canada ridge + shorter wavelengths. This would allow our northern stream wave on the backside to come further SW which is what we need to get a storm here.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Temps here are locked around 45. Supposed high is 52 but I can't see that happening when we're supposed to be at 50 already.
RDU hasn’t gone below 20 since 2018. It’s unbelievable. Cold temperatures just don’t work anymore, never mind precipitation below freezing.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Watch the ridge progressively amp over northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan on subsequent Euro runs. This should help drive a backside s/w faster & further SW over the Great Lakes region in later frames all else considered...
for Thursday I got 68 at GSP, 66 at CLT and 63 at RDU 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes the backside s/w over northern Ontario. Pattern-wise I'd say the Euro looks better than the CMC, UKMET, & operational GFS but not quite as good as the GFS parallel which was the closest to producing snow in eastern NC.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z Euro is a no-go.
I think we're also gonna need our upper low to trend stronger at least a little bit, like it was a few days ago in concert w/ a less wound up vortex.
I think we're also gonna need our upper low to trend stronger at least a little bit, like it was a few days ago in concert w/ a less wound up vortex.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Compare the best & worst looking models from the 12z suite (CMC vs GFS para) and it's pretty easy to see what we need to make this happen for us this weekend in the Carolinas.
12z GFS parallel w/ the best solution on the 12z suite, and it has a stronger upper low over the southern plains & less tightly wound up vortex in SE Canada, with orientation of the vorticity more SW-NE vs N-S, which encourages more interaction w/ the southern stream & gives us a stronger coastal low that's closer to the SE US coast >> higher threat for snow & vis versa w/ the CMC.
12z GFS parallel w/ the best solution on the 12z suite, and it has a stronger upper low over the southern plains & less tightly wound up vortex in SE Canada, with orientation of the vorticity more SW-NE vs N-S, which encourages more interaction w/ the southern stream & gives us a stronger coastal low that's closer to the SE US coast >> higher threat for snow & vis versa w/ the CMC.
severe wx later on the euro ? Looks more progressive with the trough out west 
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Sheesh, we are really reaching for winter wx these days arent we.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Frustrating to see that we've got most of the major pieces in about the right place to get snow here in March this weekend minus a very important one. The only ingredient we're missing at the large-scale is the vortex over Labrador is too wound up and we don't have a northern stream wave to interact w/ our upper low at the right time, at least as currently modeled.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Do you only comment here to ? on my posts?
Pain 
Oh my 
Here it comes
Solid wudge
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don't like how the subtropical jet intersects the warm sector like this. Hopefully the moisture return is not too strong.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes another one
lol the euro has that look where we’re gonna dump waves out west and eject them East with faster flow
“Spring intensefies”
“Spring intensefies”
Still think we unfortunately get caught up under some cold upper level lows later down the road .. but leading up to them we have wudges and warmth ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I have trust issues w/ NWP models trying to capture the true northward extent of precip when I see precip being accompanied by CAD, but I want to believe they're close enough to being right because we sure don't need the rain
That looks ideal 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things you would hate to see: that
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z EPS is doing just enough to keep me interested for this weekend
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fwiw, quite a few EPS members are hinting at the potential for some snow or (more likely) ice pellets mixed in w/ the rain tomorrow.
I can't wait to wake up to a cold pouring rain
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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most would be ecstatic with this
All aboard the cutoff wedge tornado train 
EPS has mean highs in the 60s+ from March 10th to the 16th, I like !
That's climo bro!
Another dumb mf block to --- up our spring
We’re gonna go from 50/low 60s to summer lol watch
We’re gonna go from 50/low 60s to summer lol watch
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Maybe we get both CAD and actual wedges?
Mean is probably smoothing under the block/ridge and looking worse than reality