This is a fallacy, I got down in the teens a few times this winter, down to 13 one night and was bitten by a mosquito Sunday afternoon. Nothing works like it used to
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cad Wedge NC
Member
One of these days, your wish-casting will come true. Hopefully it's not until June!
I mean I was right about that warm up last week so that wasn’t really wishcasting, but it was short lived, which I was sorta hoping it wasn’t (sorta wishcasting), hopefully we get alot of average-10 AN days in April, nothing to crazy
Philstorm91
Member
Woke up this morning to a cold rain. Temperatures have been steady around 46 so far today. Rain is basically done now, after picking up about 3/4 of an inch.
its still 46F with full cloud deck. Not sure 52F per GSP is happening
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
So far thru 48 hr, I'm liking the changes vs yesterday's 12z Euro w/ taller Rockies & western Canada ridge + shorter wavelengths. This would allow our northern stream wave on the backside to come further SW which is what we need to get a storm here.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Temps here are locked around 45. Supposed high is 52 but I can't see that happening when we're supposed to be at 50 already.
RDU hasn’t gone below 20 since 2018. It’s unbelievable. Cold temperatures just don’t work anymore, never mind precipitation below freezing.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Watch the ridge progressively amp over northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan on subsequent Euro runs. This should help drive a backside s/w faster & further SW over the Great Lakes region in later frames all else considered...
for Thursday I got 68 at GSP, 66 at CLT and 63 at RDU 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes the backside s/w over northern Ontario. Pattern-wise I'd say the Euro looks better than the CMC, UKMET, & operational GFS but not quite as good as the GFS parallel which was the closest to producing snow in eastern NC.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z Euro is a no-go.
I think we're also gonna need our upper low to trend stronger at least a little bit, like it was a few days ago in concert w/ a less wound up vortex.
I think we're also gonna need our upper low to trend stronger at least a little bit, like it was a few days ago in concert w/ a less wound up vortex.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Compare the best & worst looking models from the 12z suite (CMC vs GFS para) and it's pretty easy to see what we need to make this happen for us this weekend in the Carolinas.
12z GFS parallel w/ the best solution on the 12z suite, and it has a stronger upper low over the southern plains & less tightly wound up vortex in SE Canada, with orientation of the vorticity more SW-NE vs N-S, which encourages more interaction w/ the southern stream & gives us a stronger coastal low that's closer to the SE US coast >> higher threat for snow & vis versa w/ the CMC.
12z GFS parallel w/ the best solution on the 12z suite, and it has a stronger upper low over the southern plains & less tightly wound up vortex in SE Canada, with orientation of the vorticity more SW-NE vs N-S, which encourages more interaction w/ the southern stream & gives us a stronger coastal low that's closer to the SE US coast >> higher threat for snow & vis versa w/ the CMC.
severe wx later on the euro ? Looks more progressive with the trough out west 
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Sheesh, we are really reaching for winter wx these days arent we.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Frustrating to see that we've got most of the major pieces in about the right place to get snow here in March this weekend minus a very important one. The only ingredient we're missing at the large-scale is the vortex over Labrador is too wound up and we don't have a northern stream wave to interact w/ our upper low at the right time, at least as currently modeled.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Do you only comment here to ? on my posts?
Pain 
Oh my 