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Pattern Muddy March 2021

No wintry precip but Tony ( @dsaur ) gets his freeze back for 3/7.

Make that he gets both freezes back, 3/7-8.
 
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What is goin on lol. I go to bed with wedensday forecast as cold miserably and rainy then I wake up and it’s got a high of 61 forecast. Huh?!
 
GSP is forecasting 66 here Thursday, which from what I can see is above almost all guidance (if not all). Excerpt from this AM's disco
A dry day is in store Thu with max temps reaching well abv
normal, esp east of the mtns, as deep subs develops overhead and
combines with a w/ly downslope warming component. With mostly clear
skies and little wind, the overnight periods will see mins drop to
normal levels or a little below each night.
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edit: sorry, not tomorrow, thursday
 
Be interested to see if GSP adjusts
namconus_T2m_seus_34.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
3km NAM usually doesn't mix the boundary layer enough, resulting in a cool bias on days like this, I think their forecast of 66F is probably not bad.
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Sorry for confusion, I said tomorrow when I meant Thursday. They're going with 61F tomorrow
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Certainly seems like hope is dwindling for Sunday. Northern stream isn’t throwing us any bones atm. Hopefully that’ll change.
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Sunday's setup mostly comes down to details in the northern stream which is really hard-impossible to forecast more than 3 days out. We only need subtle changes in speed & location to drastically change the outcome.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sunday's setup mostly comes down to details in the northern stream which is really hard-impossible to forecast more than 3 days out. We only need subtle changes in speed & location to drastically change the outcome.
Click to expand...

Not sure about this one. Can things trend very favorably for Sunday? Yes. However is it likely that anyone outside the mountains see snows? From what se with the models trending the low further south/weaker due to less phasing, I don't think we will able to pull this off.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Not sure about this one. Can things trend very favorably for Sunday? Yes. However is it likely that anyone outside the mountains see snows? From what se with the models trending the low further south/weaker due to less phasing, I don't think we will able to pull this off.
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It wouldn't take much at all for this to come back if the vortex is less tightly wound up and one of those waves digs SW into the Lakes more, NWP sucks w/ northern stream waves so we still need to keep watching for the time being & I wouldn't go insofar as to say we can't pull this off (yet), I'd wait at least 3-4 more cycles before I'd say this & throw in the towel.

The recent trends + sfc forecast fields on the models can mislead you to believe this setup is more out of reach than it potentially could be.
 
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