cd2play
Member
I’ll take the warm, you can keep your tornadoes
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Once the cold front came through right around noon, the breeze picked up and its been gusty north winds ever since. My station went from 80 to 61 in just 5 hours.
Moooorchhhhh, keep dropping that AK trough and interact it with the west coast trough and we have a extended torch ?
585dm ridge on a ensemble mean poking into the Carolinas -
Awesome
Awesome
No way, is that a actual La Niña Pattern that’s dry/warm ?! 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Watch this turn into a flash drought here
My mud needs to dehydrate again, so I would take it
Jessy89
Member
So as much as I absolutely love winter and I’m pulling for this one this weekend to trend better. I just booked a 4 nights in destin Florida April 5th through the 9th. So maybe warm weather a little bit on my mind anyone with knowledge or experience. How is the water and the weather typically in Destin Florida first week of April?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I would guess that the water is cold until May.
Jessy89
Member
I’m thinking the same thing. But it should make it soothing if the temps are hot
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
How did the 18z euro look leading up to this weekend?
LickWx
Member
I know for the Carolina beaches the average water temp doesn’t break 80 till we get into June , and even then I think it’s last 2 weeks of June . Though they stay above 80 into the first week of October . Would guess destin probably sees 80 degree waters in may perhaps .
although , Wrightsville beach managed to get up to nearly 90 degree water temps in June 2015! Record for em .
18z EPS backed away from a phase, imo I’m not feeling it and never have, onto spring ?
This is reminding me of some past snowstorms that trended NW to our benefit in the runup to it (Christmas/Boxing Day 2010, for one).
Of course, I'm sure there were countless others that did not trend to our benefit that we have all forgotten, too. ?
But you can damn well bet that if we are in the bullseye at this stage, the storms will trend NW with time to our expense.
ATLwxfan
Member
Could this trend northwest? Absolutely. One could argue it’s likely. But what’s really unlikely at this point is a phase and enough column cooling to get widespread snow.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ATLwxfan
Member
The water will still be a bit cold and remember with how frigid the western gulf was a couple weeks ago. That said the weather will hopefully be nice and warm and hopefully sunny.
I’ll be in Breckinridge that week hopefully getting the snow I never got.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jessy89
Member
Thank you. I’m expecting cool waters just hoping it’s still swimmable at least. You should see plenty of snow in Colorado lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Here’s the average look at H5 I’m expecting this March, we’ll see how this works out, good 4-5 days will be skewed by a EC trough, but imo the background state (-PDO/La nina/+AMO) are very favorable for this sort of synoptic scale pattern, that and the subseasonal pattern looks favorable for severe, SSTs Match years that have bigger severe wx and a SE us ridge in spring
Fail options - that warming around 30-50mb stick around and try to build heights around Baffin Bay/beat down on the SER and we get more cooler days
Fail options - that warming around 30-50mb stick around and try to build heights around Baffin Bay/beat down on the SER and we get more cooler days
Jessy89
Member
As for this system I could be very wrong here. But I think if the NW trend happens and places like NE Georgia upstate South Carolina North of 85 and western NC gets moisture early enough Saturday morning I’m talking maybe 3am to 7am I think snow could fall in those areas probably light accumulations at best though
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This is really bad. 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Wait what? Is it really suddenly that close?
ATLwxfan
Member
Yep once again we aren't bad from 850 up but sfc to 850 is on the wrong side of marginal
Jessy89
Member
You serious clark 
This is so similar to December
This is so similar to December
That cold warm bias is probably causing it. That northern stream though not much change and it's burying Myrtle to Hatteras
Wow. Reality would probably be snow farther west than the model had 
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
Yeah not sure how far west things can get with the next wave moving east and the progressive tendency to the pattern. Maybe far enough west to get RDU/CAE corridor in the game but that could be pushing it
Clooooose
Oh come on 
lexxnchloe
Member
getting better.
Oh damn 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Rain almost here
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
NAM at 84 hours is colder aloft than both GFS's are(about 3-4C colder). 0c 850mb isotherm is at least 150 miles SE on the NAM. Ofc, it is the 84 hour NAM, but maybe that could make a difference somewhere if precip actually does reach a particular area.
Morch at the end
Check out that 10 day! ? ? 
