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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Another key piece I’m looking at is how modeling is handling the storm in a couple days from now ... how far north and west does that precip shield lay? And where is the storm located when the precip is over us ... let’s take the GFS and NAM for a second .. here are the models most recent runs 17C119E8-63A2-4277-BCE7-FD5C2C89C25A.jpegBDA5A2BA-BCDB-45F1-B024-52C59400EB89.jpeg68A11CC4-3E43-4E08-B7B3-0FC7807E14B4.jpeg

Here I put 2 frames of the Gfs and only 1 of the NAM ..I think you can clearly see why.. notice how much the Gfs doesn’t have a clue (also look at where the storm is located off the coast and where that precip makes it) and the NAM has precip FARRR north and west of the Gfs ... this could play into our downstream big dog
 
SD said:
I'll see you Friday evening when we are still hoping lol. It's going to be a painful week a less sheared wave is slower which means a better opportunity to phase. But the icon and gfs seemed a little faster with pushing the ridge to our west east.
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Yeah I mean what else should we expect from this winter, I fully expect a few big dogs runs Wed to get us all super hyped (even though we swear we wont cause we know its -------- even though we really are ), followed by a huge NW trend to warm smashing those hopes we denied were hyped, only to be NAMed Friday morning with a big dog dragging us back in.......to still eventually end up with 35 and rain...
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Another key piece I’m looking at is how modeling is handling the storm in a couple days from now ... how far north and west does that precip shield lay? And where is the storm located when the precip is over us ... let’s take the GFS and NAM for a second .. here are the models most recent runs View attachment 77402View attachment 77403View attachment 77404

Here I put 2 frames of the Gfs and only 1 of the NAM ..I think you can clearly see why.. notice how much the Gfs doesn’t have a clue (also look at where the storm is located off the coast and where that precip makes it) and the NAM has precip FARRR north and west of the Gfs ... this could play into our downstream big dog
Click to expand...
Yeah... this is something we often see with the globals and it just doesn’t correct until it’s in the short range. It always seems with coastal lows, the precip shield ends up much more expansive to the north and west than what globals are showing.
 
ATLwxfan said:
That’s the content I’m here for. I mean I tell my patients, this shot might help might not.


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Basically as a whole the background state and northern hemisphere wants to be a zonal flow. The recent wave breaks in the north atlantic are helping to induce a -nao structure. This will keep the northeast cold and dry while giving the SE a chance at snow over the weekend.
 
SD said:
Basically as a whole the background state and northern hemisphere wants to be a zonal flow. The recent wave breaks in the north atlantic are helping to induce a -nao structure. This will keep the northeast cold and dry while giving the SE a chance at snow over the weekend.
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Dream scenario right there
 
How does the Euro go from southeast of Louisiana in the gulf. to Miami Florida from hr 120 to 126? Not buying that


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SD said:
Basically as a whole the background state and northern hemisphere wants to be a zonal flow. The recent wave breaks in the north atlantic are helping to induce a -nao structure. This will keep the northeast cold and dry while giving the SE a chance at snow over the weekend.
Click to expand...

The temps though? I mean are we hoping for the CAD to be stronger?


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The Canadian from 12z Feb 27 shows us what we want to root for over the coming days. Earlier phase with our upper low w/ the northern stream s/w digging further SW towards the TN Valley and ideally getting that interact to happen near the Apps >>> amps/slows the entire wave down and gives us a stronger cyclone that comes further west.

It may not seem like it from the surface plots that show a monster low several hundred to a thousand miles offshore but we are so close to getting something similar to this.


gem_z500_vort_us_fh162-192.gif



gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh162-192.gif
 
As long as trends start Wednesday I think we have a chance. If we get the Wednesday and Thursday and the NW trend hasn’t started then you can stab a fork in it. And get ready for spring Allergies and severe weather


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ATLwxfan said:
The temps though? I mean are we hoping for the CAD to be stronger?


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We’re not looking for CAD in this set up. If, and it’s a big if at this point, this low phases with the N/S energy then you have dynamic cooling processes that would bring colder air into the system. The more northerly track of the upper low ( say around or just south of I-20 would pull in cold air with the storm. This one of those instances where much of the Carolinas would be dry with highs in the lower 50s if it’s phase is too late, but if it’s just right, you’re in the low 30s and getting pasted....the March 1983 storm is probably a good example of that... CLT was 51 on 3/23, around freezing all day with 10 inches of snowfall on 3/24, then back up to 50 the following day.
 
Chazwin said:
We’re not looking for CAD in this set up. If, and it’s a big if at this point, this low phases with the N/S energy then you have dynamic cooling processes that would bring colder air into the system. The more northerly track of the upper low ( say around or just south of I-20 would pull in cold air with the storm. This one of those instances where much of the Carolinas would be dry with highs in the lower 50s if it’s phase is too late, but if it’s just right, you’re in the low 30s and getting pasted....the March 1983 storm is probably a good example of that... CLT was 51 on 3/23, around freezing all day with 10 inches of snowfall on 3/24, then back up to 50 the following day.
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Yeah these March systems are dynamic af, kinda glad we don’t often spend them on severe wx, been a while since we had a March bowling ball ull produce severe
 
Chazwin said:
We’re not looking for CAD in this set up. If, and it’s a big if at this point, this low phases with the N/S energy then you have dynamic cooling processes that would bring colder air into the system. The more northerly track of the upper low ( say around or just south of I-20 would pull in cold air with the storm. This one of those instances where much of the Carolinas would be dry with highs in the lower 50s if it’s phase is too late, but if it’s just right, you’re in the low 30s and getting pasted....the March 1983 storm is probably a good example of that... CLT was 51 on 3/23, around freezing all day with 10 inches of snowfall on 3/24, then back up to 50 the following day.
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So you're saying even in the coldest scenario temps will be marginal with temps in the low 30s ? No chance of mid 20s and snow ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah these March systems are dynamic af, kinda glad we don’t often spend them on severe wx, been a while since we had a March bowling ball ull produce severe
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You’re right. Which is why the Carolinas have had some big snows over the years during March. I honestly haven’t been paying close attention to this until I started looking at the H5 maps from this morning. I’m certainly not sold that we end up with a snowstorm this weekend, but I can definitely see that things are not that far off from seeing one come together.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
So you're saying even in the coldest scenario temps will be marginal with temps in the low 30s ? No chance of mid 20s and snow ?
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Perhaps Webb could answer that better than me, but I would seriously doubt it. That’s ok though because if this were to happen, there would likely be some insane rates. Looking at that 3/1983 storm again, the lowest temperature CLT recorded during that was 32 and things even bumped up a couple degrees after the snow ended that evening.
 
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