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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Robert West said:
The Midlands of SC are due. Eastern Carolinas got hit in early Jan 2018
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True, but mostly areas from Georgetown and points south and west towards SE South Carolina/Florence. Also from Wilmington and points north and also areas around Lumberton. Myrtle Beach/Whiteville/Fayetteville areas got screwed over on the early Jan 2018 winter storm.

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Faco Thomas said:
True, but mostly areas from Georgetown and points south. Also from Wilmington and points north. Myrtle Beach/Whiteville/Fayetteville areas got screwed over on the early Jan 2018 winter storm.
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Nobody east of the mountains in NC has gone longer without a one footer than places like Laurinburg, Raeford, Fayetteville, Dunn, & Smithfield. Portions of Cumberland, Robeson, Hoke, & Scotland counties have gone nearly a century without a 12”+ storm. I’ll obviously have to make some tweaks to the eastern part of this map as the Dec 2000 & Feb 1989 storms have some east of 95 in the central-northern coastal plain a foot or more
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Faco Thomas said:
True, but mostly areas from Georgetown and points south and west towards SE South Carolina/Florence. Also from Wilmington and points north and also areas around Lumberton. Myrtle Beach/Whiteville/Fayetteville areas got screwed over on the early Jan 2018 winter storm.

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View attachment 77120
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0.2 is 0.1 more than CAE has seen in over 7 years.
 
FallsLake said:
Most of the operational models are showing something at the day 7 mark. Do I believe it, no way. Not until we get a lot closer. Here's the 6z GFSv16:
View attachment 77114
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This period is definitely beginning to look interesting. A cutoff is trying to phase with the northern stream. Ive been slowly watching to see if models would ever pull it off and they're starting to. Thats definitely a classical way to bring snow this far south late in the season.

Euro is pretty crazy with coastal SE snow in March, but given the anomalous events that have happened so far this winter, I'm not totally discounting it.
 
SD said:
Heavy breathing. Time this perfect and it's a storm some talk about the rest of their lives. Even as is right now it's not a bad look at all. Still not a lot of support from the ensembles though which is frustratingView attachment 77121
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It’s easier to get super amped waves and phasing when the basic state flow & northern stream wave speeds are slower, more chance for interaction over a specific area.
 
GFS06 did look ALOT better than that warm low over DC
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png
 
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