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Pattern Muddy March 2021

NickyBGuarantee said:
Not good for our “snow” system if that pans out .. would most likely point towards that system being too suppressed as well
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Not necessarily, two completely different setups, the one in a few days is just an upper low, later this weekend is upper low + lots of potential northern stream interaction & thus more complicated. If the northern stream wave goes far enough SW that could actually carry this weekend's setup and still give us snow even if the upper low trends unfavorably.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not necessarily, two completely different setups, the one in a few days is just an upper low, later this weekend is upper low + lots of potential northern stream interaction & thus more complicated. If the northern stream wave goes far enough SW that could actually carry this weekend's setup and still give us snow even if the upper low trends unfavorably.
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True but it would mean that northern energy would have to work over time to make up the difference .. I’m hoping it won’t have to over compensate and our upper lows trend favorably to link up with the northern stream with more ease
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
True but it would mean that northern energy would have to work over time to make up the difference .. I’m hoping it won’t have to over compensate and our upper lows trend favorably to link up with the northern stream with more ease
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The upper low can trend unfavorably and the northern stream could feasibly back far enough SW to create a cyclone on its own, giving us a similar setup to mid Jan 2018. There's more than one way to score this weekend and the forecast isn't as straightforward.
 
looks like after this cooler pattern, we may get another nice warmup, wouldn’t shock me if it trends warmer 548392D7-0C5F-4358-A64B-F34F905B6E3E.png32D97CD5-98C1-445C-AB88-26F496D28393.pngBD950A61-D422-4497-985E-AE420E9868A9.png11D7351B-B092-4F6C-8A9E-7E7D855B3819.pngensembles however after are bringing back a Baffin Bay block, which encourages lower heights around SE Canada, not done with cold rain CADs2286BB5B-5F41-45DC-AD20-F0A472590808.pngAB2E172A-263B-40B0-908C-DDF94134980D.png
 
Bleaklies will be released shortly. If anyone has access to them, please post how they look.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol that’s not good given that pattern is favorable for CAD, could end up with CAD boundary tornado setups, those types of things especially become increasingly more Favorable later into spring, but yeah that western US trough signal is something
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I’ve had 4 tornadoes come within 5 miles of my house since I moved here in 2010. They have all been the result of CAD boundary storms. As consistent as CAD has been lately, that makes me a little nervous
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah no joke lol CADs are gonna start resulting in severe wx shorty
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Yeah, wedge boundary tornadoes are scary. That's what I was referring to the other day about the CLT being a mini tornado alley. Given how active we've been, I have a feeling we are in for some nasty storms around here, after this possible snow.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yeah, wedge boundary tornadoes are scary. That's what I was referring to the other day about the CLT being a mini tornado alley. Given how active we've been, I have a feeling we are in for some nasty storms around here, after this possible snow.
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Gonna dump out west with a SE Canada vortex, in winter that’s ice,very cold rain, in spring that’s a cold rain/CAD boundary severe wx setup
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna dump out west with a SE Canada vortex, in winter that’s ice,very cold rain, in spring that’s a cold rain/CAD boundary severe wx setup
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I know last year was pretty bad but most of those tornadoes that hit around us were EF-0-EF1. Have we ever had CAD boundary setup that produced a significant amount of EF2 or higher?
 
Temp has also plummeted to 60F from 66F. Secondary push from that front
 
Happy hour GFS: a little snow in W NC mtns and otherwise cool to cold rain as it is quite a bit too warm most areas that have precip for snow (mainly 40s-50s) and 850s a little above 0C. Still kind of a close call, however. If this were to track a little further north and it phase, it could bring just cold enough air down for more widespread mainly NC snow. Still a pretty good longshot as of now though.
 
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GaWx said:
Happy hour GFS: a little snow in W NC mtns and otherwise cool to cold rain as it is quite a bit too warm most areas that have precip for snow (mainly 40s-50s) and 850s a little above 0C. Still kind of a close call, however. If this were to track a little further north and it phase, it could bring just cold enough air down for more widespread mainly NC snow. Still a pretty good longshot as of now though.
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This is a great take. We’re so snow starved we pray for every cold rain to do the improbable.


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Webberweather53 said:
Wow, a good trend for once

Less rain!

View attachment 77426
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HRRR agrees

c05db8b96af3a32566bbf361b8bdbee0.jpg



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