What does the EPS have at H5 around mid month I see the temps are back below normal
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z NAM folding to most other guidance, shows basically no precip north of the US HWY 74 corridor (Charlotte-Fayetteville)
Would much rather have the EPS being warmer 
Cary_Snow95
Member
Certainly seems like hope is dwindling for Sunday. Northern stream isn’t throwing us any bones atm. Hopefully that’ll change.
I wonder if we are just going to keep this similar look right through may
Be interested to see if GSP adjusts
If clouds move out I could see 63-65 in some spotsBe interested to see if GSP adjusts
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
3k says they move out well before noon
3km NAM usually doesn't mix the boundary layer enough, resulting in a cool bias on days like this, I think their forecast of 66F is probably not bad.
Sorry for confusion, I said tomorrow when I meant Thursday. They're going with 61F tomorrow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hmm well you're showing us forecast fields valid late Wed afternoon
I know, I'm interested to see if they adjust both days lol, esp with what you said abt the 3k's boundary issues
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sunday's setup mostly comes down to details in the northern stream which is really hard-impossible to forecast more than 3 days out. We only need subtle changes in speed & location to drastically change the outcome.
And the 12k for Thursday
Warmer days, cooler nights then modeled.
Not sure about this one. Can things trend very favorably for Sunday? Yes. However is it likely that anyone outside the mountains see snows? From what se with the models trending the low further south/weaker due to less phasing, I don't think we will able to pull this off.
Precip is there but it’s rain on new gfs
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It wouldn't take much at all for this to come back if the vortex is less tightly wound up and one of those waves digs SW into the Lakes more, NWP sucks w/ northern stream waves so we still need to keep watching for the time being & I wouldn't go insofar as to say we can't pull this off (yet), I'd wait at least 3-4 more cycles before I'd say this & throw in the towel.
The recent trends + sfc forecast fields on the models can mislead you to believe this setup is more out of reach than it potentially could be.