tennessee storm
Member
Bye bye dead winter ...
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Miserable March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, axis of rain keeps shifting southward.
Easy to see why we've gone this way. Maybe we'll keep ticking south and push most of the heavy rain towards the Gulf coast instead.
TileDude
Member
Birmingham has had nearly 13” of rain in February and well over 20” for the year. Last thing we need is another heavy rain event. Some surrounding areas have had over 25” this year.
Yep and that southward trend has prompted the possibility of some sort of phased system somewhere off the southeast.. trouble will be cold air .. and exactly how the system sets up is still wonky on the models
Yay!!!
WxSouth
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Another Month's worth of Rain on the Way to the Heart of the Southeast. The short range is updated and here comes another mega rain event. Ground zero for max totals is over Alabama, Georgia, Southeast Tennessee and much of the Carolinas. The grounds are wet already and Monday will start the new rain event. This one is similar to the early February historic flooding in some areas of Alabama, Georgia and western Carolinas because the RATE of rainfall will become extreme at times, with 4" dropping in about 24 hours alone.
Flooding will become an issue again by midweek.
The short term is updated for blog members. I'm working on the longer range outlook and that will be updated later today , as will a wrap up of this Historically Warm and Wet Winter.
Image is a snapshot of Wednesday morning.
WxSouth
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Another Month's worth of Rain on the Way to the Heart of the Southeast. The short range is updated and here comes another mega rain event. Ground zero for max totals is over Alabama, Georgia, Southeast Tennessee and much of the Carolinas. The grounds are wet already and Monday will start the new rain event. This one is similar to the early February historic flooding in some areas of Alabama, Georgia and western Carolinas because the RATE of rainfall will become extreme at times, with 4" dropping in about 24 hours alone.
Flooding will become an issue again by midweek.
The short term is updated for blog members. I'm working on the longer range outlook and that will be updated later today , as will a wrap up of this Historically Warm and Wet Winter.
Image is a snapshot of Wednesday morning.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Maybe if we made a few tweaks to this the next day or two, something substantial could come out of it (not necessarily in terms of snow).
That the Don’Nado?
Unless it's gonna dive all the way to Jamaica, I don't think so.
Psalm 148:8
Member
- Joined
- Dec 25, 2016
- Messages
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I am so sick of this winter and this entire pattern!!!! Fake promises from the models of cold... I feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the football?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We've got a few takers on this EPS suite trying to make things interesting for climo favored areas of the far western & NW piedmont of NC into the mid-Atlantic by about this time next week. Gonna need some significant large-scale changes to get a storm to threaten even these areas but I don't think the odds of it happening are zero (yet).
If we can slow this entire longwave pattern down a bit and amplify it, we might have something here, otherwise... snore. We're at that time of the season where many of the classical mid-winter teleconnections breakdown like the PNA. The wavelengths are short enough in March that trough on the west coast (-PNA) can actually produce another corresponding E US trough.
Fwiw, the EPS is trending in the right direction to give us a glimmer of hope for one last shot of snow next weekend. If we can shift the center of that ridge axis towards ND/MT and the E US trough to have that orientation over roughly the Apps, it might be game on.
Including what happened yesterday & earlier today (which I will map later tonight), we've officially at least seen least flakes in the air east of the mountains in the Carolinas 4 of the last 5 weekends. Will we make it 5 of 6?
Maybe, just maybe... winter isn't quite over yet.
If we can slow this entire longwave pattern down a bit and amplify it, we might have something here, otherwise... snore. We're at that time of the season where many of the classical mid-winter teleconnections breakdown like the PNA. The wavelengths are short enough in March that trough on the west coast (-PNA) can actually produce another corresponding E US trough.
Fwiw, the EPS is trending in the right direction to give us a glimmer of hope for one last shot of snow next weekend. If we can shift the center of that ridge axis towards ND/MT and the E US trough to have that orientation over roughly the Apps, it might be game on.
Including what happened yesterday & earlier today (which I will map later tonight), we've officially at least seen least flakes in the air east of the mountains in the Carolinas 4 of the last 5 weekends. Will we make it 5 of 6?
Maybe, just maybe... winter isn't quite over yet.
Hey Webb meant to ask this before, but just curious.... I see a 4.8 on the Feb. 20-21 map just to my north (which helps me feel better about my 4.5 measurement), was that a report given to you or where was that report from? If you don't mind my asking... thanks
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I saw a few reports in/around northern Halifax county between roughly 4.5-5", I placed this value in the general area of where these reports occurred s.t. the map looked a bit cleaner/less cluttered. Looks like you hit the jackpot in this storm east of the mountains
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS is also progressively looking better in a large-scale sense next weekend. Like I mentioned earlier, if we can get that ridge axis to shift west to about Montana, we could be in business. Chances of anything happening are slim-none but this is about the only thing worth watching the next week or so given our severe weather threat basically disintegrated.
Cool thanks. Something I saw a lot of the next day were broken tree limbs, especially pines (even some small trees down). Some large limbs too, another inch of that heavy wet snow and we would've had some issues
cd2play
Member
Something can't die if it never exists
For cold Arctic fans, today was the coldest so far this winter at 243K (-30C). Looking at models, it looks to me like the drop has not ended and that it could go down several more degrees, perhaps down to as low as near 240K. If it drops just another 1K to 242K, even that would be enough to make it the coldest for any day in several years!
I lam literally praying that it will at least not friggin rain until after lunch Monday! Maybe it will keep moving south and straight to hell! Week after week ruining my barn raising. Rain, get too muddy, dry a tiny bit, rain. Wash rinse and repeat. I could throw up. Is it possible it could not be so rainy? Move on to the south? Please say yes...Urgggg.
That’s actually quite close, this thing went from a severe look to a look that wouldn’t be terrible for a winter storm (not saying it’s a winter storm) just saying the H5 pattern/sfc look is close 