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Miserable March

GaWx said:
As much as I'd love this to be real, I assume this is mainly due to the GEFS doing what it does best or worst. But does it have to be completely off its cold biased rocker? I ask because of cold March analogs and the fact that this is only 252 hours out rather than near the end of the run. Also, there is a +AAM then, which does partially correlate to a +PNA. So, at least this offers some hope. IF this were just halfway real, it would mean only 3 day torch 3/3-5 in between cold periods.

By the way, though 2/27-8 are still about as cold on the GFS as what it had a few days ago, 2/29-3/1 have warmed considerably! For example,
KATL had been 44/27 and 52/28. Now it is way up at 51/33 and 61/37! Cold bias ftl. This is why it is always wise to assume cold bias in cold GFS maps and hope for the best..

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It’s worth noting there’s been a trend at H5 to getting rid of the SER around that time, so it may not be crazy, maybe we can have a last chance for something outside the mountains with this 7C97B7A9-83B6-43D7-B23F-9BF10220503E.gif
 
I'm going to NY next week and gonna be in Boston this day for this one night lmao not holding my breath on this verifying though given how winter has been up there(I think I saw about the same amount of snow the other week in Wichita Falls that Boston has seen since January....)

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Well, what do you know. I may have to go back to Majestic March if this keeps up. The models have been taking away from the cold of 2/29 and 3/1 as well as from 3/2-3 and are more than giving it back during 3/5-9. The 0Z EPS deserves a holy wow for 3/5-9. It is the -PNA/warm favoring combo of MJO 4/5 and +AO vs the +PNA/cold favoring +AAM. It looks like the +AAM is trying to take over here.

Note how much further east is the E Pacific ridge as of 3/4 on today’s 0Z EPS vs yesterday’s 0Z EPS: note how much higher the heights are on the W coast, which leads to a stronger and much further east trough in the Midwest on the new run accompanied by much higher sfc pressures coming in. As a result later on, look at what we have, a +PNA!

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This then leads to solid BN to MB in the SE on 3/7! The run from 24 hours ago had slightly warmer than normal then!!

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GaWx said:
Well, what do you know. I may have to go back to Majestic March if this keeps up. The models have been taking away from the cold of 2/29 and 3/1 as well as from 3/2-3 and are more than giving it back during 3/5-9. The 0Z EPS deserves a holy wow for 3/5-9. It is the -PNA/warm favoring combo of MJO 4/5 and +AO vs the +PNA/cold favoring +AAM. It looks like the +AAM is trying to take over here.

Note how much further east is the E Pacific ridge as of 3/4 on today’s 0Z EPS vs yesterday’s 0Z EPS: note how much higher the heights are on the W coast, which leads to a stronger and much further east trough in the Midwest on the new run accompanied by much higher sfc pressures coming in. As a result later on, look at what we have, a +PNA!

View attachment 36377

This then leads to solid BN to MB in the SE on 3/7! The run from 24 hours ago had slightly warmer than normal then!!

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Writing has been on the wall for this for a while. The models did the reverse head fake this time and showed warm then back to cold. Im not sold on us being out of the woods for snow potential either
 
I came across an interesting thread from HM (Anthony Masiello) on Twitter regarding some evidence on why this winter has been so warm and to why the pattern ended up the way it did to date.

In HM's tweet, he focuses on two pieces of the Pacific jet stream. Both Jets are visualized in his second tweet, where the North Africa-Asia (NAA) jet is on the left and the East Asia North Pacific (EANP) jet is on the Left.

Each jet's strength and the relationship between each other has proven to be indicative of the upper-level pattern. Referring to tweet #3, when the atmosphere leaned towards a +NAA and a -EANP, we leaned towards a +AO and little blocking and overall zonal (Warm air flowing into the middle latitudes) pattern. With a -NAA and a +EANP, the atmosphere reacts, per contra with a -AO and more blocking. Note that this theory only applies when one jet was above average and one was below, so it does not apply to every winter.

Another thing that the strong jet does, is lead to where MJO will set up. The MJO is part of a Hadley cell, with a widespread area of rising energy. Personally, I'm not sure if the Hadley cell impacts the jet or vice versa, maybe @Webberweather53 can chime in. To continue, with the stronger jet, depending on the area, the MJO stays in certain phases based on which jet is stronger wrt their locations. If the NAA jet is stronger, then phases 4-5-6 are more likely. If the EANP jet is stronger phases 7-8-1 are more likely where the MJO is in RED with rising air and Blue is sinking air.
plot_chi_tvalue_8pan_novmar.gif

This winter, we saw a strong +NAA jet (The fourth highest) and a-EANP referencing Tweet #2. In layman's terms, Because the Jetstream was strong over Africa and Weak over Asia, forcing favored a more Zonal flow with a +AO and bad MJO phases.


 
Ollie Williams said:
I came across an interesting thread from HM (Anthony Masiello) on Twitter regarding some evidence on why this winter has been so warm and to why the pattern ended up the way it did to date.

In HM's tweet, he focuses on two pieces of the Pacific jet stream. Both Jets are visualized in his second tweet, where the North Africa-Asia (NAA) jet is on the left and the East Asia North Pacific (EANP) jet is on the Left.

Each jet's strength and the relationship between each other has proven to be indicative of the upper-level pattern. Referring to tweet #3, when the atmosphere leaned towards a +NAA and a -EANP, we leaned towards a +AO and little blocking and overall zonal (Warm air flowing into the middle latitudes) pattern. With a -NAA and a +EANP, the atmosphere reacts, per contra with a -AO and more blocking. Note that this theory only applies when one jet was above average and one was below, so it does not apply to every winter.

Another thing that the strong jet does, is lead to where MJO will set up. The MJO is part of a Hadley cell, with a widespread area of rising energy. Personally, I'm not sure if the Hadley cell impacts the jet or vice versa, maybe @Webberweather53 can chime in. To continue, with the stronger jet, depending on the area, the MJO stays in certain phases based on which jet is stronger wrt their locations. If the NAA jet is stronger, then phases 4-5-6 are more likely. If the EANP jet is stronger phases 7-8-1 are more likely where the MJO is in RED with rising air and Blue is sinking air.
View attachment 36404

This winter, we saw a strong +NAA jet (The fourth highest) and a-EANP referencing Tweet #2. In layman's terms, Because the Jetstream was strong over Africa and Weak over Asia, forcing favored a more Zonal flow with a +AO and bad MJO phases.


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That is hard for me to follow. I have been given a much simpler explanation, which may incorporate some of what you posted. Recent SE winters have been warm largely due to the very warm W Pacific waters, which lead to a higher % of winter days in MJO 4 and 5 (favoring stronger SER), along with some help from GW. If we want to reduce the frequency of warm SE winters, a relative cooling of those waters vs surrounding waters would in theory help a lot although that would be way easier said than done.
 
GaWx said:
That is hard for me to follow. I have been given a much simpler explanation, which may incorporate some of what you posted. Recent SE winters have been warm largely due to the very warm W Pacific waters, which lead to a higher % of winter days in MJO 4 and 5 (favoring stronger SER), along with some help from GW. If we want to reduce the frequency of warm SE winters, a relative cooling of those waters vs surrounding waters would in theory help a lot although that would be way easier said than done.
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During the fall there was decent reason to believe the winter would be Pacific dominated and the Atlantic would provide minimal help. I personally never would have seen us having positive anomalies in the okhotsk region and near AK. I'm pretty certain the congealed strong pv didnt do us a lot of favors this winter either. It seemed like any time we got any semblance of poleward ridging going it was chopped off and failed. Its really a case of what could have been. If we flip the positive anomalies in the sea of okhotsk negative and force the Pacific ridge poleward we would have had at least a shot at a multi week period of epo driven cold combined with stj moisture. Instead we got the +okhotsk heights a flat Pacific ridge and a SE/EC ridge reflection compday.Czvw8W7uHx (1).gif
 
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Downeastnc said:
These Euro wind maps are almost always overdone by 10-20 mph....the values for the mts might be close but I would take 10-20 mph off everywhere else....though being a wind junkie I hope its right....
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Yeah. I'm expecting gusts in the 15-25 mph range, based on this map.
 
Downeastnc said:
These Euro wind maps are almost always overdone by 10-20 mph....the values for the mts might be close but I would take 10-20 mph off everywhere else....though being a wind junkie I hope its right....
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Here, sometimes the models in the short range are really close but sometimes things just never mix so they are way over done. We have issues here with NW flow events because the cross barrier and down slope aids in transfer. I just don't think I have ever seen this with what looks like it would be a S or SW wind event. We get occasionally get a rouge gust from this direction but nothing that looks this widespread.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Here, sometimes the models in the short range are really close but sometimes things just never mix so they are way over done. We have issues here with NW flow events because the cross barrier and down slope aids in transfer. I just don't think I have ever seen this with what looks like it would be a S or SW wind event. We get occasionally get a rouge gust from this direction but nothing that looks this widespread.
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For here the bigger wind days from mixing are usually anywhere from NW around to SW ( any big wind here with a east component usually means tropical system ) but typically the max gust on days like that are 35-45 mph its pretty unusual to get over 45, though we had that day a few weeks back where the airport here PGV recorded a 54 mph gust.
 
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