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Miserable March

SETNwx said:
Interesting, looked up the data for 1889-90 in CHA.. the coldest was 25 for the met winter, and went down to 15 in early March 1890.
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Yeah, that was one of my analogs suggesting a good chance for a cold March. However, with the current models, the chances for a cold March have fallen dramatically in recent days. As I type this, the 0Z EPS is a torch with a a strong SER 3/3-6 and that's without adjustment for cold bias!.It is a pretty hopeless situation for winter lovers now.
 
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How soon we forget that every time the models have shown endless SER torch it mostly didn’t verify. This has happened for 2 months. This time could be different but I’m not convinced yet on the cold not returning. Having said that, our chances of getting a proper winter storm are dwindling.
 
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Matthew70 said:
Warmer temps will not kill the virus or keep it from spreading.
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It very well may help per the new thread dedicated to it. Please go there for further extensive discussions. The link to why warmth may help is in the first post.

Meanwhile, regarding the upcoming weather, the GFS has (not surprisingly due to cold bias) warmed considerably the last 2 days and thus the upcoming cold snap doesn’t look as cold. Then the SER pays a visit with some MA days it appears.
 
I dont know some GEFS ensembles still look pretty vigorous with Saturday’s clipper .. we may have a couple days of flurries and feliz adds but that one on Saturday still bares watching
 
Six Mile Wx said:
How soon we forget that every time the models have shown endless SER torch it mostly didn’t verify. This has happened for 2 months. This time could be different but I’m not convinced yet on the cold not returning. Having said that, our chances of getting a proper winter storm are dwindling.
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I hope you’re onto something about what lies ahead but I don’t agree with your statement about models over the last 2 months mostly not verifying when they had long periods of SER. The cold bias of the models in general and especially the GEFS has continued to be strong overall (outside of parts of the last 2 weeks or so when 2 Arctic airmasses pretty suddenly appeared in the models during the day 7-10 period). Look how much it has warmed up on the models for 2/27-3/2 vs what earlier runs had. A good portion of this cold bias the last 2 months in general has been related to underdoing the strength and durability of the SER, which was mainly for Jan 1-19 and Feb 1-14.
 
Very likely one week from today the models suites will show something entirely different than what they show now, and altogether possible (if not probable) that what is shown today for a week from now will be different when a week from now arrives. Models are guides but are not the words of Moses from the mountain top ...
 
pcbjr said:
Very likely one week from today the models suites will show something entirely different than what they show now, and altogether possible (if not probable) that what is shown today for a week from now will be different when a week from now arrives. Models are guides but are not the words of Moses from the mountain top ...
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Regardless, they are very useful tools. That includes forecasts of teleconnections. Without them, we'd have much less of a clue about the future. One important thing though is to recognize biases and adjust expectations accordingly as the better pro mets do.
 
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GaWx said:
Regardless, they are very useful tools. That includes forecasts of teleconnections. Without them, we'd have much less of a clue about the future. one important thing though is to recognize biases and adjust expectations accordingly as the better pro mets do.
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Oh, Larry ... I did not mean to suggest they are not useful tools. If it seemed otherwise, pardon my writing skills today. Models are guides ... but they are not gospel as so many would seem to have them. You are absolutely correct that one has to look at the entire mix, and one must be willing to adjust (and use some common sense in the process). It's oftentimes that last factor that eludes me ... :oops:
 
Mike Ventrice is mentioning the euro ensembles are showing a robust pv displacement beginning of March FWIW. To me it looks like warming around Greenland. The pdo went negative and that didn't help us any and we didn't have a laniña this winter. I'm wondering if we would have had a real nina with a -pdo?
 
As much as I'd love this to be real, I assume this is mainly due to the GEFS doing what it does best or worst. But does it have to be completely off its cold biased rocker? I ask because of cold March analogs and the fact that this is only 252 hours out rather than near the end of the run. Also, there is a +AAM then, which does partially correlate to a +PNA. So, at least this offers some hope. IF this were just halfway real, it would mean only 3 day torch 3/3-5 in between cold periods.

By the way, though 2/27-8 are still about as cold on the GFS as what it had a few days ago, 2/29-3/1 have warmed considerably! For example,
KATL had been 44/27 and 52/28. Now it is way up at 51/33 and 61/37! Cold bias ftl. This is why it is always wise to assume cold bias in cold GFS maps and hope for the best..

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