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Miserable March

Wow ! That ridge on the EPS is very impressive, 585/588dm ridge is typically something you see on a average June day, the means for this timeframe is already in the 70s, I bet if that ridge holds 80s would be likely 6DB29D62-8FC1-41A6-84F8-E27090EE4F75.png76D901FA-B7B2-4F42-9B4C-19BFA9DDF8C9.png
 
Come on folks, I'm sorry for saying "Boring" I would never want anyone to get injured or killed over bad weather. I really hope people on this board knows I'm not that kind of guy. Being a fanatic weather person I do enjoy extreme weather but never wish death upon anyone.
 
If GFS is to be believed, I might chase in south/West Virginia. Heavy snowfall. I wouldn’t rule out NC mtns tho over next 2 weeks.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Here it comes, the final stratospheric warming event, SPV is headed toward its summer state as the sun gets stronger, winter is ending folks, if you like cool weather enjoy the cool downs the next few weeks View attachment 36998
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All I want is a complete takeover from the Southeast ridge so we can finally dry out. I’m sick of rain! (Unless there are nighttime thunderstorms involved in which case bring it on)
 
BufordWX said:
All I want is a complete takeover from the Southeast ridge so we can finally dry out. I’m sick of rain! (Unless there are nighttime thunderstorms involved in which case bring it on)
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If we hold that pattern we currently have into April, it wouldn’t shock me to see summer like temps in April
 
As much as I hate the SER, if it helps keep the virus under control or better yet leads to its decline via warmth and increased humidity, I say bring it on! Health is infinitely more important to me, especially in regard to older relatives and friends.
 
I'd kill for those temps in the summer in Tennessee.. But yeah, there isn't a sustained cool/cold pattern to be had this month. Same as it's been since early Nov.
 
CMC pops a monster 594dm ridge off the SE coast with widespread 588dm/591dm heights across the eastern parts of the SE, and the crazy part was, is that the ridge could of strengthened even more on the CMC, it’s still the 240 hour CMC but strong ridging is looking likely around day 8-10 37A8A444-BCBF-4C26-84C8-06A5ED117139.png45E5DDA7-58A1-4718-8922-A0E85AFBFAE7.pngD6EFB44F-73B2-4503-8E53-2AEB7ADDA4C5.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CMC pops a monster 594dm ridge off the SE coast with widespread 588dm/591dm heights across the eastern parts of the SE, and the crazy part was, is that the ridge could of strengthened even more on the CMC, it’s still the 240 hour CMC but strong ridging is looking likely around day 8-10 View attachment 37010View attachment 37011View attachment 37012
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kinda normal really.. an 80 popping up in March is par for the course. We hit consecutive 80 degree days just last year in February, for the first time in recorded history. Correction: it was 2018, but also last year we recorded an 80 degree day in Feb. Contrast this with every Chattanooga official recorded high going back to 1879, before 2018, and there was never an 80 degree day. Amazing really.
 
SETNwx said:
kinda normal really.. an 80 popping up in March is par for the course. We hit consecutive 80 degree days just last year in February, for the first time in recorded history.
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Yeah, but 594 dm heights itself is impressive in September, sfc temps won’t be like that due to it still being March but those heights are something you see in early summer/late summer
 
TWC has a chance of showers here in the forecast from the 14th to the 23rd. That would be miserable. Make it stop!
 
Brick Tamland said:
TWC has a chance of showers here in the forecast from the 14th to the 23rd. That would be miserable. Make it stop!
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The NWS has at least a 30 percent chance of rain here every day of its 7-day forecast. All I got to say is at least we’re building up the water table now for the hot summer months
 
At least the GEFS has been consistent this winter: 156 of 159 0Z/12Z runs since 12/14/19 verified as too cold in week 1! Note that per the graph below, a good number of these runs were a whopping 15-20 F too cold for week 1! That’s 2-3 F/day, which is awful for a bias, especially in week 1

 
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The guy that about a month ago who was very confident predicting a devastating snow storm for the SE up the Atlantic coast that would either hit at the end of Feb or by March 10 at the latest.... what is he saying now? (and what was his username?)
 
SD said:
I bet we find a way to wedge this initially. Also this is one heck of a severe set up on the NW edge of the ridge
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yeah those troughs swinging north of the SE ridge will probably allow a nice CAD setup especially right as the ridge begins to flex
 
I would keep an eye out for that MCS tomorrow if you Iive in Alabama, especially western Alabama. Most models have it fizzling out over Mississippi but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hang tough into Alabama at least. Models almost always kill MCSs to early. MCSs can also act in unpredictable ways sometimes.
 
00z Hrrr almost looks like a summer day tomorrow with the precipitation coverage. Scattered showers/storms all across the southeast. Could be a summer preview.CD1CE5B1-1058-423C-904D-8A5E45578062.png
 
Yep, quite similar to a summer day today with convection firing off surface troughs, even the soundings are quite similar to what we see a lot in the summer, big temperature/dew point depressions, dry air entrainment at the mid levels with solid Dcape and a bit of a warm layer at 700mb which we almost always seem to get in the summer CABB3659-85E8-418A-B9AB-DBD8B8EBCFCD.png60468316-12B3-4F77-9A39-7783FC02870C.png
 
As the ridge builds next week, GFS even introduces some typical daytime instability into the SE, sign that summer is getting closer and closer 7FDC709C-42A6-48AF-B7BB-85EFB24E232C.png
 
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