And nearly on the 30th anniversary of March ‘93…Not too bad how it turned out. Yes fantasy but still
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Pattern Mega March 2023
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’ve seen it snow at 48
griteater
Member
Similar sfc low track. Some shortwave phasing on the Control. '93 more extreme phasing of course. No -NAO / Retrograding block in '93
I would put very little stock into the GFS suite… it has been performing horribly for months and the GFS op is basically useless outside of 4 days when it has no support from other models
Here’s a look at the EPS which has continually been extremely consistent with its theme for a while now. This is an extreme pattern change that will more than likely have March feeling like it’s February around here. 
GFS at 18z continues to be completely out to lunch compared to any other model and it’s ensemble group. Would put little to no stock in it at this point as a high amp phase 8 with blocking in the Arctic and westward retrograding -NAO does not support a pattern it’s laying out in the medium to long range. I think the euro/EPS cmc/GEPS have the right idea (and show similar pattern evolutions as a result) in how this evolution usually pans out with the pieces in play.
SnowNiner
Member
Doesn't look as good as last night. Backed off a bit.
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s an outlier until we see if any of the other models follows suit. I get that it doesn’t make sense in regards to where the indices are headed but how could it be this far off? Seems insane.
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Climate prediction center disagrees with with the GFS .. soon it will cave to other guidance 
Might be a little loud overnight around here
HRRR Lightning
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HRRR Radar
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HRRR Lightning
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HRRR Radar
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Total Precip
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The GFS is awful in every metric possible
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Definitely has some quad 4 losses.
Flotown
Member
just getting back for a few ,gotta get back focused on severe weather but got to say WOW at euro,taking verbatim...somebody gettin plastered...but lets see if it holds!!
Brick Tamland
Member
No way anyone should believe this now. No need to get excited unless something is showing next Monday.
griteater
Member
Hmmm, nice having CMC and Euro ensembles on the colder train with western trough ejection, but I don’t personally consider the GEFS a trash model - would rather have it closer to consensus
JHS
Member
griteater
Member
Really I’d rather a moderate strength wave come out of the west first and hit the Mid-Atlantic / NE which then establishes the eastern trough behind it, then a have second moderate-strong wave slide west to east into cold air over the SE
The N and NW portions of the forum may prefer to swing for the fences like Mickey Mantle and have the first wave come out in Big Bang fashion per Euro Control (warmer risks)
Tonight’s CMC holds strong with its previous runs. Exceptionally cold pattern for march. Impressive evolution here
850 mb temp evolution is just insane for march. Below freezing all the way through Florida. That’ll support snow over the SE if you can get a system to show up in this time frame
Nice line of storms just left the area. Quite a bit of lightning/thunder. Moderate rain was almost heavy a few times. Best thing about the storms was it cleaned some of the gutters out. The rain went from 0 to 100 in a couple seconds.
Bye bye-bye pollen!! See you in a few days.
Bye bye-bye pollen!! See you in a few days.