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Pattern Mega March 2023

metwannabe said:
Tiny bit of noise on the EPS
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It’s a solid evolution. It’s an impressive cold air mass but it’s retreating so it’s a very touch and go system. Certainly has time to trend colder/ maybe a deeper low would help lock cold air in. Certainly can’t hate the low pressure track. Let’s hope for some snow because if not snow we’re going to see a good cold rain soaking.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Preferrably it needs to happen at night too. Daytime snow in late March is a nightmare.
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Yeah, near freezing late March snow will be trouble. We need good timing and/or very cold BL temps and heavy rates, the sun this time of year is no joke. Of course, let’s just get the system first.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, near freezing late March snow will be trouble. We need good timing and/or very cold BL temps and heavy rates, the sun this time of year is no joke. Of course, let’s just get the system first.
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Today's upper 50s here in Birmingham sure felt a lot warmer than upper '50s in January.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Wow, GFS is not backing down. And that tight gradient for the Triangle almost makes me believe it's possible.
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Not a fan of this setup. Western Atlantic ridge is a big problem here, the cold vortex lifts due north which isn’t ideal, we need lower heights in the Atlantic, this could easily be a cold rain or even a apps runner/cutter D9BAA9F7-8D44-41C8-B854-DD6496F44C07.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Any ensemble snow mean isn't going to be bonkers 7/8 days out in late march. Even showing 1 inch mean is impressive considering the time of year.
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But having the GFS model as the only model showing something and really bad probs from the gefs isn’t encouraging either, we’ve seen what that results in all winter long, are average high temp around this time is approaching the mid 60s, we need good looks as much as possible whether that’s a big signal on ensembles especially the EPS. It’s not encouraging that the ens that had a 4 inch snow mean here a couple weeks ago for a mountain ULL is currently the best look and even it’s bleak.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
But having the GFS model as the only model showing something and really bad probs from the gefs isn’t encouraging either, we’ve seen what that results in all winter long, are average high temp around this time is approaching the mid 60s, we need good looks as much as possible whether that’s a big signal on ensembles especially the EPS. It’s not encouraging that the ens that had a 4 inch snow mean here a couple weeks ago for a mountain ULL is currently the best look and even it’s bleak.
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Yea, I mean it's a long shot. But a long shot is about all you can ask for 7 days out in late March. At least there is that potential(however low) for a big dog.
 
I mean this is worse than mid. The gefs signal, well isn’t really a signal. Just noise with maybe a few big hits at best. Only thing going for us is storms this time of year are juiced up. It’s prob our last shot so I’m hoping D011B1CD-980C-439A-B928-C167F3C434DC.png
 
Just for an optimist point of view... what were all the ensemble means showing 7 days out for the snow event NC/VA got this past week? I'm guess they were mostly if not all showing 0 on the means.
 
As bleak as it looks on the ensembles, the mountains do actually look pretty good. All of the means have 2+inch totals there and we're not talking day 14 stuff.

With the juice and potential for a bomb... there's a more realistic shot the mountains get obliterated. I'd gladly drive an hour or two to see feet.
 
Certainly don’t Expect any big snow event here. Need a lot to go our way including track/ time of day/ cold enough air to stay around longer. All that sort of stuff. Which I still think is certainly possible but just hard to do. Rates can usually help with a lot of the puzzle pieces let’s just try and get a decent storm track.

Regardless of whether you think it’ll happen or not you better hope we do get snow cause the alternative is going to be the coldest rain you’ve ever seen ??
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Uhh. View attachment 134299
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Don’t get too excited for now. Little model support for anything wintry. Cold air is meager and track has to be perfect to maximize cold air that’s left. All in all not a good recipe for something magical to happen outside of the mountains. Certainly something to keep an eye on but more than likely we’re dealing with a cold rain set up.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t get too excited for now. Little model support for anything wintry. Cold air is meager and track has to be perfect to maximize cold air that’s left. All in all not a good recipe for something magical to happen outside of the mountains. Certainly something to keep an eye on but more than likely we’re dealing with a cold rain set up.
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I think he’s sitting pretty good in Erwin.
 
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