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Pattern Mega March 2023

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These are pretty cold even compared to January. Too bad we will be just dry and cold.
 
The AO drop is impressive since it started near +3 in late February and is now showing it going to the -2 range before mid month. That is also a lower number than yesterday when it was showing it near -1.5. The question of course is will it mean just a cold period or one with a storm in the picture. March is usually a juiced up month on precip compared to December so we will see.
 
CaryWx said:
meh. Those are Sat morning lows. Barely below freezing for mby. For mid-March cold? Yes. For January? Not so much
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This is Sunday morning lows, better? Lol Of course this is 10 days out, but BUT, if the Euro was correct with DPs in low teens, clear skies and light winds (although it looks like they may be up around 5-10 mph), globals don't generally handle radiational cooling that well..... you could be talking low 20s, easily.

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metwannabe said:
This is Sunday morning lows, better? Lol Of course this is 10 days out, but BUT, if the Euro was correct with DPs in low teens, clear skies and light winds (although it looks like they may be up around 5-10 mph), globals don't generally handle radiational cooling that well..... you could be talking low 20s, easily.

sfct-imp.us_ma.png
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Yep. We know globals often overshoot lows in radiational cooling situations minus the cmc with the euro being notoriously high. There's a good amount of support for the cold euro within the eps plumes but you still have 25% or so that are 60+ so it's not a slam dunk. What sucks is if we drive a deep trough into the east you can kiss and snow chance goodbye until the pattern relaxes but it looks like this might fairly quickly moderate on the back. The gfs run from a few days ago and the 12z euro run from a few days ago had it right on how to get snow here in March and this op Euro run today is very reminiscent of the Christmas cold shot where we get left with not much to show but cold and dead plants
 
SD said:
Yep. We know globals often overshoot lows in radiational cooling situations minus the cmc with the euro being notoriously high. There's a good amount of support for the cold euro within the eps plumes but you still have 25% or so that are 60+ so it's not a slam dunk. What sucks is if we drive a deep trough into the east you can kiss and snow chance goodbye until the pattern relaxes but it looks like this might fairly quickly moderate on the back. The gfs run from a few days ago and the 12z euro run from a few days ago had it right on how to get snow here in March and this op Euro run today is very reminiscent of the Christmas cold shot where we get left with not much to show but cold and dead plants
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No doubt, no snow with this and just worse case scenario imho.... extended warmup before a late season arctic blast (if it materializes, as you say not a slam dunk for sure) and no freaking wintry precip to show for it. Are the plumes available free somewhere and I just don't know how to find them? lol

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metwannabe said:
No doubt, no snow with this and just worse case scenario imho.... extended warmup before a late season arctic blast (if it materializes, as you say not a slam dunk for sure) and no freaking wintry precip to show for it. Are the plumes available free somewhere and I just don't know how to find them? lol

850t_anom-mean.conus.png
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weather.us

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Chalybeate Springs

Chalybeate Springs, Harnett County, North Carolina, United States - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct comparison for several parameters.
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Here is a link to mine you can navigate around and change the location to your house
 
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