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Pattern Mega March 2023

A lot of GEFS members now on board with a storm… only problem is the cold air many are widespread cold rain monsters. I like the storm signal but we need a defined low pressure up the coast to be able to maximize cold air and bring that down to the surface. Anything sloppy or strung out isn’t going to use the cold air properly to get snow outside of the mountains.
 
Yea the margin is thin even on the 12z gfs op. Would be really nice if this storm could evolve like the 12z gfs shows but speed up about 6 hours. That’s the sweet spot we need to find
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Major uptick on GEFS members. This screams elevation dependent though especially if it's daytime.
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Well obviously timing is a detail that gets settled closer, if there is storm. That said it looks as though this arrives during the overnight on that GFS run.
 
ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

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How the weekend system goes once it's in the NE into SE Canada is the key player to anything next week. A weak system means this system is NW like the euro a stronger system is more suppressed like the gfs

Edit there's also a quirky little shortwave ridge that's over the lakes on some modeling that could throw a wrench into this as well
 
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SD said:
Any locations that see the wind die off tonight have a good shot at mid 20s. My lowest temp in 2023 so far is 23.6 and it would likely be in trouble if we fully decoupled tonight which it looks like this area may not
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I'm only at 47 with a slight breeze. I bet the bottom drops out for a lot of people that radiate well. I can't see the breeze sticking around much after dark. Baseball practice is going to suck tonight.
 
Is the Happy Hour GFS our next model run? We need some luck east of the mountains. Or a miracle. Been a crazy winter. Beautiful today!
 
SD said:
Any locations that see the wind die off tonight have a good shot at mid 20s. My lowest temp in 2023 so far is 23.6 and it would likely be in trouble if we fully decoupled tonight which it looks like this area may not
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That’s a sad low temp. Thankful for the cold snap in December or else this winter would have one of the highest seasonal mins on record (if not the highest).
 
superjames1992 said:
That’s a sad low temp. Thankful for the cold snap in December or else this winter would have one of the highest seasonal mins on record (if not the highest).
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Thank goodness RDU got down below freezing last night. Even with the forecast tonight being a little colder, it seems RDU always runs warmer. I was afraid we would end the winter with our last (official) below freezing temp in February.
 
severestorm said:
18Z GFS took another step to a cutter. HP moving out quicker ahead of the low. Seen this before this winter.
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Not really a cutter just less cold air this time so it’s all rain.. track was good.. but like I said earlier we’re looking at a cold rain event here most likely nothing more
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Not really a cutter just less cold air this time so it’s all rain.. track was good.. but like I said earlier we’re looking at a cold rain event here most likely nothing more
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It was more of a timing issue, need the wave to be quicker. Slowing the wave down last 3 runs causes cold air to not be there.
 
packfan98 said:
Strong storm signal on the 18z GEFS. Definitely looks to favor the mountains up through West Virginia right now. There are a couple of solutions that puts down some snow outside of the mountains, but that looks much less likely at the moment. Fighting an uphill battle for most of us.View attachment 134316
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That’s a heck of a Day 7 signal on an ensemble for those west of I-77
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That’s a heck of a Day 7 signal on an ensemble for those west of I-77
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A lot of big time solutions I think main issue will be if it’s cold enough outside of mountains. Need to see cmc/euro get on board. No consistency from op runs yet. The gefs is encouraging though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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