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Pattern Mega March 2023

ATL and only ATL crushjob. Oh and mountains.
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Wow. That is a very good looking signal on the ensemble mean. Nothing about that says cutter to me,
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No other ensemble suites are biting. Id hold in the excitement still. The GEFS and GFS aren’t usually the ones leading the way in .. any event really so best to tamper expectations
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gefs looks good but would really want to see some EPS support grow in the next 2 days, it becomes a good and probably the best ens to look at under day 7
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Euro op was close last night and quite the shift.... blip or trend? Too early to tell but looks like still a tiny bit of noise on the EPS with the slightest of SE shift with the mean but without access to individual panels not sure exactly what's going on with it

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Best guess if we di get any snow outside of the mountains with this is likely going to be another 85 and NW deal with sharp cutoffs and ratios. Timing of day will be absolutely key here as well. I've seen with my own 2 eyes snow in the multiple inches being forecasted the day of storms but because it came during the day and during late in the season you get a dusting and it's gone in 2 hours. That's something we need to account for as well.
 
metwannabe said:
Euro op was close last night and quite the shift.... blip or trend? Too early to tell but looks like still a tiny bit of noise on the EPS with the slightest of SE shift with the mean but without access to individual panels not sure exactly what's going on with it

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Some noise, but for me to get excited this needs to shift considerably in the next 48 hours. I've been in 4" mean jackpots twice this winter from the GEFS and ended up with nada both times.
 
I
iGRXY said:
Best guess if we di get any snow outside of the mountains with this is likely going to be another 85 and NW deal with sharp cutoffs and ratios. Timing of day will be absolutely key here as well. I've seen with my own 2 eyes snow in the multiple inches being forecasted the day of storms but because it came during the day and during late in the season you get a dusting and it's gone in 2 hours. That's something we need to account for as well.
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I agree but I just want to see a flake of snow or I will be blanked for only the second time since 81-82. I know a lot of us are in the same boat this winter. I've seen about 9 sleet pellets this winter. Hoping for a miracle.
 
iGRXY said:
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Some noise, but for me to get excited this needs to shift considerably in the next 48 hours. I've been in 4" mean jackpots twice this winter from the GEFS and ended up with nada both times.
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Thanks for posting, Idk I see about 14 members with some snow fall here, mid/late March if it's going to be cold just seeing flakes fly is enough to get me excited. Expecting anything more is fools gold anyway
 
J1C1111 said:
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I agree but I just want to see a flake of snow or I will be blanked for only the second time since 81-82. I know a lot of us are in the same boat this winter. I've seen about 9 sleet pellets this winter. Hoping for a miracle.
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This ^^
 
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Not really hard to see why the GFS is working and the EURO isn't right now. GFS immediately has a stronger TPV that turns into our 50/50 and is further SE vs the EURO. Also the GFS separates and gets a nice consolidated bowling ball action to help pull in CAA whereas the EURO is strung out more and can't tap into the cold air pool that is also retreating. GFS has everything going just about right with it and to me that causes me to pause.
 
metwannabe said:
Euro op was close last night and quite the shift.... blip or trend? Too early to tell but looks like still a tiny bit of noise on the EPS with the slightest of SE shift with the mean but without access to individual panels not sure exactly what's going on with it

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Yeah that’s one thing no one has talked about overnight. That was a huge shift!
 
The most lame scenario here is too weak and offshore for the mountains to cash in. Which seems like a very realistic possibility with what the euro/cmc/icon are showing. Let's hope the trend of the winter continues and this storm ramps up on modeling in the medium range.
 
rburrel2 said:
FWIW the EPS doesn't like the storm b/c most of the members are suppressed/OTS/don't have a storm. I feel better about trending towards a storm ramping up on the Euro/EPS than basically any other trend we would need, (still not saying it's likely though).
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You can't forget the universal SE truth...when we need it to amp to snow, the shortwave will pass, whiff safely to our south. When we need it to not amp, it will amp, go neutral way west and the storm will pass over clt.

That's been the anecdotal pattern I've observed. EPS will be correct one way or another if I had to bet. GEFS is horrible.
 
06z EPS looks even more suppressive due to more interaction from the PNW trough and a weaker desert SW ridge to amplify the parent SW.
 
Not too excited with this next system. GFS has been horrible this year and without much support from other models it looks like another Lucy too me. But on the other hand we rarely get completely shut out in my neck of the woods so I guess there's a chance.
 
RDU got down to only 30 last night, while GSO got down to 25. RDU sucks. ?
 
FWIW The 12z Icon shifted a little NW from the 6z run for Tuesday
 
Don’t expect a march snowstorm. Or snow at all. It’s hard to get any time of year but especially march. No model has really been supportive of anything wintry yet. Nothing but a cold pattern. Not favorable for a snow storm of any capacity. So please don’t expect something to happen just because the GFS shows it. It’s not a good model
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t expect a march snowstorm. Or snow at all. It’s hard to get any time of year but especially march. No model has really been supportive of anything wintry yet. Nothing but a cold pattern. Not favorable for a snow storm of any capacity. So please don’t expect something to happen just because the GFS shows it. It’s not a good model
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I know your knowledge is much higher than mine and I enjoy reading and learning from you on here, but dang man can you ever say anything positive?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t expect a march snowstorm. Or snow at all. It’s hard to get any time of year but especially march. No model has really been supportive of anything wintry yet. Nothing but a cold pattern. Not favorable for a snow storm of any capacity. So please don’t expect something to happen just because the GFS shows it. It’s not a good model
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I would not say this winter that any model has been "good".
 
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