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Pattern Mega March 2023

@SD @Rain Cold @metwannabe we had a good start to the year at least staying on target for YTD totals but the next 10 days look weak for rain totals on the 6z gfs. Better rain chances post 240 but that's not reliable time frame. As we warm up and get into more of a convection driven rain setup I could see us slipping back into drought rather quickly.
 
@SD @Rain Cold @metwannabe we had a good start to the year at least staying on target for YTD totals but the next 10 days look weak for rain totals on the 6z gfs. Better rain chances post 240 but that's not reliable time frame. As we warm up and get into more of a convection driven rain setup I could see us slipping back into drought rather quickly.
I'm not too worried about drought. That is always the boogeyman that torments weather forums every single year, sometimes multiple times per year. Back in the fall, it was supposed to drought all the way through winter. I expect some we'll see a departure from wet patterns from time to time, but hopefully that's the extent of it.
 
I'm not too worried about drought. That is always the boogeyman that torments weather forums every single year, sometimes multiple times per year. Back in the fall, it was supposed to drought all the way through winter. I expect some we'll see a departure from wet patterns from time to time, but hopefully that's the extent of it.
Pgv finished up -16 inches for 2022. We always got enough to keep things from going overboard but ponds are still down quite a bit from normal.
 
@SD @Rain Cold @metwannabe we had a good start to the year at least staying on target for YTD totals but the next 10 days look weak for rain totals on the 6z gfs. Better rain chances post 240 but that's not reliable time frame. As we warm up and get into more of a convection driven rain setup I could see us slipping back into drought rather quickly.
I'm right around 7in ytd not great. D0 has already creeping west
 
I have to ask... what kind
TifTuf Bermuda. I know it’s bad timing but it was the only day they could deliver and after moving 4CY of dirt by hand I had to get it covered. It was frozen solid when I placed it today.
 
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TifTuf Bermuda. I know it’s bad timing but it was the only day they could deliver and after moving 4CY of dirt by hand I had to get it covered. It was frozen solid when I placed it today.
At least we are getting rain. I was just cutting my croquet court down from the winter in, mostly just blowing the leaves off with the blade, and it's not growing yet, but everything above grass level thinks it's late April. I've got mostly a hybrid greens bermuda on it. Put it down from sprigs and I was glad I had a good well. Some good rains every few days would have helped a lot, but it was dry when I put down the sprigs....so the sprinklers ran for hours everyday. Today was a good day for that kind of work....except for frozen hands holding frozen sod.
 
TifTuf Bermuda. I know it’s bad timing but it was the only day they could deliver and after moving 4CY of dirt by hand I had to get it covered. It was frozen solid when I placed it today.
Good choice, I'm a big fan it resists fungus well and is pretty good tolerant. I bought 100sq ft from super sod to test it out and they didn't go brown until the Christmas cold shot and they were fully green before last weeks freeze. It's so dense don't let it get tall or it'll choke a mower out
 
Good choice, I'm a big fan it resists fungus well and is pretty good tolerant. I bought 100sq ft from super sod to test it out and they didn't go brown until the Christmas cold shot and they were fully green before last weeks freeze. It's so dense don't let it get tall or it'll choke a mower out
That’s who I bought mine from. The area I laid it on is steep and badly eroded but gets plenty of water and tons of sun so it should do well with the topsoil I added.
 
People don’t realize how extremely close we were to something here. If we got the usual NW trend as we always have this year then we would be in for a marvelous march snow storm. But it’s not quite there .. of course .. womp
 
Luckily it's the long range gfs and it sucks but what a dry spell coming up for NC//SC if it is right.
 

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Luckily it's the long range gfs and it sucks but what a dry spell coming up for NC//SC if it is right.
I seem to remember a number times the last 3 months where people are making the comment… “if the GFS is right, it’s looking very dry the next couple weeks”… it hasn’t been right yet
 
Luckily it's the long range gfs and it sucks but what a dry spell coming up for NC//SC if it is right.
Canadian basically agrees. The euro would have more, particularly for northern zones.


Euro day 10 totals:
1679358250540.png

We've been lucky to get the rain we've had during the last three years of la nina.
 
Has been for me the last couple weeks
I wonder why you folks in northeast NC have had so many dry stretches this last year. We’ve just come out of a 3 year La Niña and back here in the western half of the state have only had about 3 weeks or so as high as a moderate drought.
 
I wonder why you folks in northeast NC have had so many dry stretches this last year. We’ve just come out of a 3 year La Niña and back here in the western half of the state have only had about 3 weeks or so as high as a moderate drought.
Not sure. We had a big rain on Feb 6th and we had 1.57 that day which was big but since it's been small totals only with a largely flat graph for now
 

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Got down to 28 last night, the coldest night of this cold stretch. It’s not inconceivable that may be the last freeze of the year, though we have another month or so of opportunities for that.
Idk about down this way, but for northern SC up that way, there's likely another towards the end of March/very early April (1st week).

The ideas been on the modeling for a couple days and it just makes sense. They don't start planting on/after good Friday for no reason around these parts
 
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