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Pattern Mega March 2023

Well these are definitely great weenie runs of the GFS overnight and this morning, but let’s remember this was a model that 2 days ago kept showing a strong SER despite high amp phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO combination.

Lol yep. That said, this is mid range sampling and it just got slapped in the face by a high amp phase 8.


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Euro being amped up is a big red flag imho. That has been the trend the last month
I would honestly thing that sets us up even better for events down the road past 240… solid consensus from models of some sort of bigger developing storm whether it’s a late bloomer or super amped inland .. I would say a storm signal is there but we’re still a long ways out to figuring out where the ingredients try and set up
 
The models weren't right in the dead of winter, have my doubts they'll be right in middle of March lol. With that said, if we're going to kill off all vegetation that has popped up early let's at least dump some snow on top of it.... please.
 
The models weren't right in the dead of winter, have my doubts they'll be right in middle of March lol. With that said, if we're going to kill off all vegetation that has popped up early let's at least dump some snow on top of it.... please.
This. If it's not going to snow I'd rather avoid the cold
 
Well these are definitely great weenie runs of the GFS overnight and this morning, but let’s remember this was a model that 2 days ago kept showing a strong SER despite high amp phase 8 MJO, -AO, -NAO combination.
Kudos to you and others (BullCity / NickyB) who thought the GFS/GEFS were out of whack with the pattern. Yes, the Euro is historically best with retrograding Greenland block patterns, but we sometimes see the GFS be stubborn and correct with some of its ideas, especially with the Pac side and with this being La Nina.

Last night's GEFS run has, broadly speaking, my favorite type of pattern. Retrograding Greenland block, solid 50/50 low complex underneath that is getting fed and reinforced, and last but not least, the Pacific side isn't too steeply ridged...so, waves are moving more west to east into the eastern trough instead of it being a big Arctic blast. Do I think it is correct? No, probably not. The Euro is cold, but again, it has that big bang look with the one big storm which has warm risks out front

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