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Pattern Mega March 2023

No doubt we will see home highs in the low 50's and lows tickling 30F for a night or two, maybe. That would be -10F departures. So yeah, all on board for that and it will be nice to have some cool nights. But sunny and highs in the low 50's still feel rather good, shorts and light jacket weather.

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No doubt we will see home highs in the low 50's and lows tickling 30F for a night or two, maybe. That would be -10F departures. So yeah, all on board for that and it will be nice to have some cool nights. But sunny and highs in the low 50's still feel rather good, shorts and light jacket weather.

View attachment 133933
Those are mean highs 10 days out in the upper 40s with mean highs average to below average for the heart of winter. That will be extremely cold weather for march in the south. If you’re from buffaloe I could see it being light jacket weather.
 
No doubt we will see home highs in the low 50's and lows tickling 30F for a night or two, maybe. That would be -10F departures. So yeah, all on board for that and it will be nice to have some cool nights. But sunny and highs in the low 50's still feel rather good, shorts and light jacket weather.

View attachment 133933
With a high March sun angle, 50s would feel a lot warmer than it does in January.
 
No doubt we will see home highs in the low 50's and lows tickling 30F for a night or two, maybe. That would be -10F departures. So yeah, all on board for that and it will be nice to have some cool nights. But sunny and highs in the low 50's still feel rather good, shorts and light jacket weather.

View attachment 133933

I think this fits the bill. Folks wanted BN temps and we can universally agree the models give us BN temps like you’ve shown. The Canadian is unrealistic in my opinion as others have stated.


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If there was still ever a doubt. Professionals say you are going to be hard pressed to find warmth in March.View attachment 133938View attachment 133939View attachment 133940

I’d like to think we all agree it’s going to be BN though the verdict might be out on how much and if the off chance for wintery precip. It’s as good of a pattern we’ve seen for something wintery. Let’s see what the 18z GFS spits out. I would not be shocked to see the goods.

Mid 40’s tonight is going to feel frigid after this stretch.

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Well…the 18z GFS is…different. Low temps next weekend up about 20° with the core of the cold out west. It’s delayed but not denied…vodka cold coming down the pipe.


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Anybody talking about the fact that it's in the upper 40s in Northern Iredell and in the low 70s in Southern Iredell County?? Is that CAD? It's astonishing the difference in just a very short drive today
 
42 and cold rain here today. Super fun day. On next weekends system. It is unreal how we get the looks we had over night for a few runs with multi model support just to have them all cut this year. There is still a glimmer of hope in the EPS, but I would like to see things trend a little better.

Happy hour GFS did throw a nice looking bone late in the run. Don't look, it will hurt your eyes.
 
I’d like to think we all agree it’s going to be BN though the verdict might be out on how much and if the off chance for wintery precip. It’s as good of a pattern we’ve seen for something wintery. Let’s see what the 18z GFS spits out. I would not be shocked to see the goods.

Mid 40’s tonight is going to feel frigid after this stretch.

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Again this why you can’t ever take any operational models seriously more than a week out and probably more than 4 days on the GFS. We’ve seen the GFS struggle for months since its upgrade… even to the point that the WPC has stopped using it.
 
42 and cold rain here today. Super fun day. On next weekends system. It is unreal how we get the looks we had over night for a few runs with multi model support just to have them all cut this year. There is still a glimmer of hope in the EPS, but I would like to see things trend a little better.

Happy hour GFS did throw a nice looking bone late in the run. Don't look, it will hurt your eyes.
Was 40 here and rain at 4pm. Meanwhile, Wilmington NC was sunny and 81.
 
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