Pattern Mega March 2023
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A lot of folks going to like the 12Z HRRR
Oooh so close, just need it to hold further east lol. But yeah 12z HRRR is umm almost a big deal
Done
Wintry - 3/12 White Rain Potential
Good luck to those who may see some flakes tomorrow!
southernwx.com
Gfs and cmc both have a banging setup in the day 9 timeframe. Euro not far off. Maybe we can pull off a Hail Mary here.
You are correct. When I saw 2.5” stick to the ground on 4/2/2019 IMBY, it stuck to and covered the fully leaved trees first… we had two Bradford pears in our front yard that literally split in half down the middle of the trunk just from having snow on them for 2 hours. Warm ground temps won’t prevent snow from piling up on trees.
wind
Outside of mainly the border counties, the 12z NAM is not too enthusiastic about flakes, unfortunately.
I hope some of you guys will be able to see some flakes, it would really be pretty cool considering how bad the winter has been. I'm out if the game but it will be nice to get some rain to wash away some of this awful pollen! And I can't believe the Wisteria is already out, never seen it this early.
I haven’t really paid much attention to this, but I’m assuming that this snowfall potential is coming from an area of strong FGEN forcing causing the column to collapse and produce a period of snow. If it is, then honestly, I would pay very little attention to the NAM as it doesn’t do well at all with those set ups. The HRRR and the RAP typically sniff those out first…2/6/2021 is a great example of that.
The GFS and CMC are still advertising big dog potential around day 9. A little too suppressed, but with ample cold air on today's runs. Right where we want it?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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The CFS's summer projections are interesting. Mild and wet in the east and west and warm and dry in the central areas.
That makes some sense looking at the drought monitor. The heat ridge looks to set up from Kansas down into TX unless things change.
There’s a few absolute nuke jobs on the 18z gefs around day 9/10. So much potential here. Right now we need to trend more towards amplification since most members are suppressed and flat. More amped has been the trend this winter so maybe it’ll finally work in our favor.
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Dang this GEFS run is epic for upstate SC/NGA. 4 of 20 members on COD weather are crush jobs in the day 9-11 timeframe. Several more are glancing blows.
Yes last summer was extremely hot here. We've actually seen some major drought improvement although just to the west keeps missing out so we'll see. But if we're really heading towards El Nino we might escape the worst heat if we're lucky. Pretty much anything is better than La Nina