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Pattern Mega March 2023

ForsythSnow said:
Not too bad how it turned out. Yes fantasy but still
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This has been the same look the entire Winter. They dig, tilt, get to strong & yeet into an oblivion. Texas & Arkansas. Rinse & repeat. Lol ?
 
That upper level low snow falling in Dallas at 240hrs is -10C at 850 with upper 20s surface temps. And the low is just starting to pinch off at that point... it would have to go bowling ball and plow due east from there... it probably slows down to a crawl too with how things were evolving.
 
LickWx said:
Happy meteorological spring yall! 95% of us now have average highs above 60 (I think RDU goes over tomorrow or Friday). In one more month 70 is the average :cool:
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It's what makes me wonder whether or not -8 departures will give us a big snowstorm. 52 seems a tad too warm for snow, but there seems to be some enthusiasm about it, so I guess it's possible.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
You can see the GEFS clearly lagging behind in showing lower heights out west while the EPS and GEPS continues to trend towards weaker heights and even a ridge trying to pop around 7-10 days out View attachment 133804View attachment 133805View attachment 133806
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It gives me pause. The GEFS and GFS op are significantly more subdued as it pertains to the cold and the duration. That op run wasn’t impressive in the least. Though getting to normal and a little BN is a significant accomplishment compared to where we’ve been. I tend to think the Euro is overdoing things a bit.


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Rain Cold said:
It's what makes me wonder whether or not -8 departures will give us a big snowstorm. 52 seems a tad too warm for snow, but there seems to be some enthusiasm about it, so I guess it's possible.
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It is! March can still work though. Different than jan but it happens. Anything past mid March though is probably upper level low driven though? That seems to be the main big snow producer that time of year.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It gives me pause. The GEFS and GFS op are significantly more subdued as it pertains to the cold and the duration. That op run wasn’t impressive in the least. Though getting to normal and a little BN is a significant accomplishment compared to where we’ve been. I tend to think the Euro is overdoing things a bit.


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The GFS and its ensembles are hot garbage. It is on the biggest island by itself right now. Betting against the EPS especially at this range is not a good idea.
 
LickWx said:
It is! March can still work though. Different than jan but it happens. Anything past mid March though is probably upper level low driven though? That seems to be the main big snow producer that time of year.
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In my mind if we don’t get anything by March 15 we’re done. It would take a once in a 40 or 50 year storm to get anything past March 15.
 
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