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Pattern Mega March 2023

iGRXY said:
This is the thing, March snow happens but most large storms have been within the first few days of March typically. We are getting about a good of an H5 pattern as you want to deliver really cold and well below average temps for a large junk of the month as it looks right now. But even with a large displacement of cold air in the eastern US and 15-20 degree below average temps, it's still going to be in the upper 30's and lower 40's more than likely outside of the mountains. So while yes we keep winter around, it's still not cold enough to snow in unless you get closer to record breaking type cold which is extremely tough to rely on.
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I think we're just gun shy since it has been soo long since most areas outside the mountains have had a big mid to late March snow. You have to remember though when looking at the possible upcoming cold for March pattern, not to just look and say that we are just 6 to 8 below average and it won't be cold enough to snow. It only takes one day of the big 20 degree departure average that many of us need by then to get it done. Is it Likely to happen? Probably not but it absolutely is not too late and could if all goes right. I saw snow in April in Central NC when I was a kid. Its happened before.
 
Canadian Ensembles probably going to be even better with the snow mean in the long range this run with lower heights in the east and 850's dropping south quickly and a ton of energy flying around.
 
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GFS hilarious TBH
 
KyloG said:
The majority of the SE will go without even a trace of snow, I don't remember the last time Raleigh hasn't even seen a trace....maybe the 90's. Doesn't breed optimism for next winter. Soon just getting below freezing will be a win for us.

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I believe we did see a trace with the Arctic front we got a bout of sleet and graupal which was regarded as a trace ..
 
Coldest anomalies on the euro have always and continue to be march 10-15th .. if you want a chance at snow in the south .. this will be the best time frame to do so. A long range GFS is more than likely wrong but its evolution of the pattern is certainly what we are headed towards and has been seen on the ensembles for a while now.
 
The op gfs has a lot of things that go right and evolves into a near perfect pattern for the SE. At day 14+ it's likely going to end up wrong but it gives an idea of what could happen if things break perfectly. Looking at the 0z eps plumes we lost some of the higher end events but we still kept a lot of hits on the snow depth charts so we are more likely to potentially see enough marginal cold for a rain to snow snow to rain type scenario. As you can see below just after D10 the gefs has a decent qpf moving into BN 850sgfs-ens_T850a_us_fh240-294.gif
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I personally think we still have a lot of demons and ghosts left in the hemispheric pattern that we will have to fight to get a late season snow event but I wouldn't completely call winter dead yet
 
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Going from a +3 to -1 or lower AO will deliver some cold air with that kind of change. What we saw in December was too extreme and had more of a dry airmass than what we will see for March. Either way it's at least interesting to see the models adjust towards something wintry.

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SD said:
The op gfs has a lot of things that go right and evolves into a near perfect pattern for the SE. At day 14+ it's likely going to end up wrong but it gives an idea of what could happen if things break perfectly. Looking at the 0z eps plumes we lost some of the higher end events but we still kept a lot of hits on the snow depth charts so we are more likely to potentially see enough marginal cold for a rain to snow snow to rain type scenario. As you can see below just after D10 the gefs has a decent qpf moving into BN 850sView attachment 133742
View attachment 133743


I personally think we still have a lot of demons and ghosts left in the hemispheric pattern that we will have to fight to get a late season snow event but I wouldn't completely call winter dead yet
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The GFS had a run a couple of days ago that if extrapolated at 5H would have yielded a similar outcome to today's 12Z run fwiw.

Just goes to show that even though we're in a rapidly closing climo period, a good late winter storm has and can happen.
 
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